Mauricio Dubon was serviceable at the position in 2025, but he’s a free agent and is undoubtedly better served as a super-utility piece than a full-time starter at shortstop. The Braves should be looking to upgrade. The problem is that the free agent market at the position is essentially non-existent. The trade market, however, features some really intriguing names that could fix shortstop in Atlanta for the foreseeable future.

This continues a series where I focus on some of those marquee names, moving on to one of the more intriguing candidates of any position group, Corey Seager.

If you missed the first parts of this series, follow the links below:

• Braves hypothetical trade for Jeremy Peña
• Braves hypothetical trade for Gunnar Henderson

Braves hypothetical trade for Corey Seager

Braves receive: Corey Seager, $20 million cash

Rangers receive: Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Owen Murphy, Luke Sinnard

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It’s already been reported by numerous sources that the Rangers will try to trade Corey Seager this offseason, which shouldn’t really come as a surprise. Any club would be trying to get out from under the remainder of the $155 million owed to him over the next five years, especially given his injury history. Seager has not played in more than 123 games since 2022 and is entering the offseason after minor elbow surgery.

The only way the Rangers are going to be able to move this contract is if they eat a large chunk of change, which is part of why the Braves make such an intriguing trade partner. Texas can take on the contract of Spencer Strider to start. He’s owed $44 million over the next two seasons, and the Rangers can also absorb the final year of Reynaldo Lopez’s deal, which is set to pay him $8 million. Add on $20 million in cash, and Seager’s deal is essentially cut in half, which would make this a much more affordable gamble for the Braves.

There are a couple of other aspects that must be taken into consideration. Seager will be 33 years old next season. The odds of him playing shortstop for the entirety of his contract are basically zero. However, that actually kind of works for the Braves. They have some talented potential shortstops coming up through the farm, and Ozzie Albies is set to become a free agent a year from now. Seager could move to second base after just one season and eventually shift into a DH role if needed, still providing value now that his contract has been cut in half.

There is one more issue, though. Seager has a full no-trade clause. If he doesn’t want to play for the Braves, there’s nothing Alex Anthopoulos can do about it, similar to what happened with Jacob deGrom at the trade deadline.

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IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

The bright spots Atlanta had early in the season have almost all faded. Everybody knows Bijan Robinson is one of the top running backs in football, but Atlanta has struggled running the ball against better defenses. The offensive line play has taken a step back from previous seasons, and Penix’s inability to keep defenses honest has also been a factor.

For a brief moment, it looked like Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees just might be the guys to make Penix a franchise quarterback. He was brilliant against the Packers and Saints in his first two games back, then had another really strong outing in the Falcons’ upset win over the 49ers.

But a lot of the problems that persisted before the new coaching staff arrived have remained constant this season. Penix doesn’t like to move around — likely because of his injury history — and when pressured, he’s no better than Cooper Rush. He actually might be worse, which has led to far too much inconsistency for someone the Falcons were hoping could be the team’s next franchise quarterback.

Is that the fault of Atlanta’s offensive coaching staff? Possibly. They certainly haven’t done anything worth praise, but it also could be that Michael Penix simply isn’t the guy, and the Falcons need to be back in the quarterback market this offseason.

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta seemed to establish a new identity early in the season. They were a physical team that dominated the line of scrimmage. At one point, they had the top-rated rush defense to go along with the best pressure rate in the entire league. But all of that proved to be fool’s gold once they found themselves up against more competent offenses. This is still a unit littered with holes that Matt Ryan and Ian Cunningham will be tasked with filling come the offseason.

Most of this stuff should have been expected. This was a roster that came into the season with tons of questions. Some were even pegging the Falcons to pick #1 overall, so not all of the struggles can be pinned on Stefanski and his staff. But one area is concerning — and it’s something Stefanski talks about often: the ability to adapt.

The sign of a good coaching staff is one that can lead its team to victory when things aren’t right. Whether it’s missing key players, bad weather, or whatever else, the best coaches in the league are tough to beat no matter the circumstances. One could say that’s the entire purpose of a head coach, and in that area, Stefanski has totally failed.

The Falcons looked like a fish out of water when Michael Penix Jr. was out, especially when the Panthers dismantled them in Week 2. Then fast forward a few weeks to when Atlanta had a chance to take a stranglehold of the NFC South with a win over the Bucs. That game took place in a monsoon, and it seemed like only one coaching staff was aware of it. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the Falcons’, who were shut out in an embarrassing 16-0 defeat — one in which Penix threw four interceptions and the Bucs failed to complete a pass.

That’s the biggest knock on Kevin Stefanski through his first nine games in Atlanta. When everything’s perfect, the Falcons look like contenders. But anybody can win under perfect circumstances; it’s the ones who can adapt to less-than-stellar circumstances that are worth their pay. And so far, Stefanski hasn’t proven he’s worth a dime.

Grade: D

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

There are a couple of names that are particularly intriguing. Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena are exactly the type of right-handed bats Alex Anthopoulos would love to add to this lineup. Both are good for about 25+ home runs a season with an .800 OPS, and Arozarena brings the personality and postseason experience that make him even more appealing.

The problem is that with so few reliable options, just about every team trying to compete is going to be interested. And Scott Boras, Arozarena’s agent, is aiming for the moon as always, seeking a six-year, $150 million deal for his client.

“Arozarena’s camp at the Boras Corporation has also apparently opened the winter with a lofty asking price. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times report that they’ve been seeking something in the six-year, $150MM+ range. That’s an ambitious goal, particularly on length. Freddie Freeman and DJ LeMahieu are the only free agents within the past decade to command six years starting at age 32 or older. LeMahieu’s contract was artificially stretched to reduce the average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Freeman is a future Hall of Famer who was a year removed from winning NL MVP when he signed with the Dodgers for $162MM,” Anthony Franco writes for MLB Trade Rumors.

Even coming off a career year in which he recorded 5.7 WAR, Randy Arozarena isn’t going to get six years for $150 million as he enters his age-32 season, but 4-5 years and north of $100 million feels very much on the table — and the Braves seemingly never seriously engage with Boras clients.

Whatever Arozarena gets, one would imagine Suzuki will get something similar. The numbers they’ve put up over the last five seasons aren’t far apart, and many clubs would probably even prefer Suzuki’s consistency.

At that price point, I just can’t see the Braves being seriously interested. Anthopoulos has always been hesitant to pay players well into their 30s. He even balked at handing Freddie Freeman a sixth year when those negotiations happened, and Freeman is twice the player Arozarena and Suzuki are.

Then you add in the fact that both players received qualifying offers, which would cost the Braves multiple draft picks in the first five rounds as well as international bonus pool money — another thing Anthopoulos has avoided in free agency since taking over in Atlanta.

This is a GM who typically follows a strict set of rules when it comes to free agency — rules that Arozarena and Suzuki run afoul of in just about every way. It’s difficult to imagine either of them ending up with the Braves.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

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We were a last-minute BYU touchdown away from another winning week for our Locks, but Bear Bachmeier had other plans. The Locks finished 1-2 last weekend, but our Leans went 5-1 for another winning week overall in the column.

This slate is not as juicy as what we saw last week, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be chaos. There are a few upsets I’m predicting for this week, while some other contenders will make some serious statements. Let’s dive into Week 11.

Locks: 25-10-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 35-27-1

Column overall: 60-37-2

Georgia -13 vs Missouri

I’ll back the Dawgs as my Best Bet this week. My power ratings make Georgia an 18-point favorite in this game, so anything around two touchdowns is too low in my opinion. I’m not afraid to back the Dawgs coming off a statement road win at Ole Miss, even though we’ve already seen Georgia come off a big road victory, only to return home and lose as a big favorite. Kirby Smart won’t let that happen again.

This isn’t an ideal situational spot for Missouri, either. The Tigers left everything on the field in a tough home loss to Texas last weekend, a game that featured plenty of controversy surrounding questionable officiating decisions. Now they have to pick themselves back up and head into one of the tougher road environments in the SEC, against a Georgia team that appears to be hitting its stride.

The matchup isn’t favorable for Missouri, either. Jamal Roberts has some great rushing numbers this season, but the Tigers have struggled to run the football consistently as a team, ranking outside the top 120 nationally in rushing success rate. That’s a major concern against a Georgia defense that ranks inside the top 20 in rush defense.

I expect Georgia to take away Missouri’s running game and make the Tigers more one dimensional. This will put more pressure on Austin Simmons to move the football through the air. The Bulldogs have been particularly dominant on first and second downs, and have forced opponents into difficult third-and-long situations. It could be more of the same here, with Missouri relying on Simmons to bail the offense out on obvious passing downs.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s defense has been pretty good at forcing opposing offenses to move the football methodically. But that shouldn’t be much of a problem for Gunner Stockton and this Georgia offense, which ranks among the nation’s best in overall success rate and rushing efficiency.

Missouri has been effective at making opposing offenses put together long drives, but the Tigers have also struggled to defend explosive plays, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in explosiveness allowed. With Missouri paying plenty of attention to Georgia’s rushing attack, don’t be surprised if Mike Bobo dials up a few deep shots, much like we saw last weekend in Oxford.

Another major concern for Missouri is its inability to finish drives. The Tigers rank around 96th nationally in finishing drives, frequently moving into scoring territory without turning those opportunities into touchdowns. Georgia also has a massive special teams advantage here, with Missouri’s special teams having been a liability recently, including two missed field goals against Texas last weekend. If the Tigers manage to move the football into Georgia territory but stall out, there’s no guarantee they’ll even come away with three points.

Georgia’s defense has done an excellent job creating turnovers this season. Normally, I’d be looking for some regression, but I don’t think this is the spot. Despite throwing only two interceptions, Simmons has recorded nine turnover-worthy plays this season. Against a talented Georgia secondary, and with the Bulldogs likely forcing him into difficult passing situations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of those dangerous throws finally become turnovers.

With the total sitting in the mid-40s, the market clearly isn’t anticipating many points from Missouri, and I agree. I don’t like the matchup for the Tigers, and I certainly don’t like the situation they’re walking into. Kirby Smart has Georgia clicking on all cylinders since that loss to Auburn, and I expect the Dawgs to keep rolling. Look for Georgia’s defense to put the clamps on Missouri’s offense while Stockton and company create enough separation.

I grabbed Georgia at -13 when the line opened, and I’d still be comfortable laying anything around 15 points or less. Georgia will roll again this weekend.

UCLA -10 vs Illinois

I’m going to lay the points on Friday night with the Bruins, who remain undefeated against the spread this season. My power ratings make UCLA a 15-point favorite, and I’m not really sure why Illinois is getting so much love here.

I know Illinois has a respectable 6-3 record, but look at some of their recent wins. They barely escaped Michigan State in overtime. They beat Oregon in Champaign while the Ducks were still operating under their previous offensive coordinator. They beat Maryland by three in a game where the Terps fumbled on first-and-goal. Then last weekend, Illinois beat a reeling Nebraska team in a game where the Huskers had 50 more total yards, missed two field goals, and came up empty on multiple possessions in Illinois territory.

Maybe I’m being a little picky, but that’s not a résumé that convinces me Illinois should be catching fewer than 10 points in the Rose Bowl against a really good football team. And UCLA’s résumé isn’t perfect either, but the Bruins have answered just about every test thrown their way this season. I was particularly impressed with their performance at Minnesota last weekend, where the offense managed to hit several explosive passing plays against one of the better pass defenses in the Big Ten.

I like the matchup here for UCLA, which has one of the most dominant defenses in the country. Illinois has a solid passing offense, but this Bruins secondary is going to be a different beast. UCLA ranks first nationally in defensive passing success rate and is also inside the top five in rushing defense. While Illinois has been effective on early downs, UCLA has been outstanding at forcing opponents into difficult third-and-long situations. I expect the Illini to have a tough time consistently moving the chains.

On the other side of the ball, the Illini rank outside the top 100 nationally in several important defensive categories, including 135th in passing success rate allowed. I was impressed with UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach last weekend, even though he completed only eight passes. He showed an ability to hit explosive plays, and this Illinois secondary should give him opportunities to do that again.

UCLA also has a strong running game behind Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods, which creates another problem for an Illinois defense that has struggled to get stops on first and second downs. The Illini have been poor at generating defensive havoc, meaning Dieffenbach should have plenty of time to operate without consistent pressure.

Illinois does have an extra day of rest after playing last Friday, but the Illini still have to travel across the country for this matchup. Meanwhile, Bob Chesney has done an excellent job getting his team ready every week, and the Bruins haven’t shown many signs of coming out flat this season.

Now ranked inside the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings and fighting for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, UCLA has plenty to play for. I’m trusting my numbers and backing the better team, with the better defense, at home. The Bruins will win by double digits on Friday night.

TCU -7.5 vs Kansas State

It’s hard not to want to fade this Kansas State team right now. The Wildcats are reeling as we head into the middle of November, with a pretty bad injury situation. K State is dealing with several important absences, including defensive tackle Eli Jackson and safety Koy Beasley, but none are more consequential than injuries to its top two quarterbacks, Avery Johnson and Jacob Knuth. Both have been sidelined for an extended stretch, and without them this offense has completely fallen apart.

With Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff taking snaps, the Wildcats managed just 3.8 yards per play in a loss at Arizona State. They were fortunate to even reach overtime against Colorado after the Buffaloes fumbled near the goal line on a possession that could have put them ahead by two scores. Then last weekend, against a bad Oklahoma State defense, Kansas State’s offense managed just 21 points in a blowout loss, with seven of those coming during garbage time in the fourth quarter.

Now the Wildcats have to travel to Fort Worth to face one of the better defenses in the Big 12, a TCU unit that ranks inside the top 10 nationally in defensive success rate. I wouldn’t expect Barnett or Duff to find much success throwing against a secondary that has been particularly effective at taking away explosive passes. TCU should also be able to devote plenty of attention to stopping the run, forcing the Cats into obvious passing situations. Without the ability to generate explosive plays, K State will likely need to put together long, sustained drives to score points, and I just don’t see these inexperienced quarterbacks consistently doing that against this defense.

This is actually a step down in competition for TCU’s defense, which has done an excellent job making some pretty explosive offenses work for their points. BYU managed just 17 points in Fort Worth. West Virginia is used to scoring in the 40s, but was held to 24 despite benefiting from four TCU turnovers. Kansas scored only 16, and Arizona had just 17 points entering the fourth quarter last weekend. This is a defense that has repeatedly shown it can slow down much better offenses than Kansas State’s.

The biggest concern with backing TCU is its own offense, which has been a work in progress for much of the season. The Horned Frogs have struggled mightily to run the football, and ordinarily I’d be hesitant to lay more than a touchdown with an offense that has trouble consistently moving the chains.

But there is one area where I think TCU can exploit this Kansas State defense: explosive passing plays. The Wildcats have been poor at defending the deep ball, and if Jaden Craig can connect on just a few chunk plays, it should create enough scoring opportunities for the Horned Frogs. Especially considering how little I expect Kansas State to produce offensively, TCU shouldn’t need to put up a huge number to cover this spread.

There’s also plenty at stake for Sonny Dykes. He’s on a major hot seat, and his future at TCU depends on reaching a bowl game. Dykes desperately needs a win here, and a home loss to a depleted Kansas State team would likely be the final nail in his coffin. I expect TCU to come out focused after last week’s heartbreaking loss at Arizona, knowing it can’t afford another setback.

My power ratings make this TCU -12.5, so I see a pretty significant difference from the opening market. I grabbed the Horned Frogs at -7.5, and even with the line moving higher, I’d still be comfortable laying 10 or less. This should be a methodical TCU victory, with the Horned Frogs’ defense strangling a Kansas State offense that can’t consistently move the football right now.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Colorado +10 vs Houston — I’m hoping the Buffs haven’t quit just yet. This is a team that’s much better at home and now gets Houston flying into altitude on a short week. My ratings only have Houston -6.5 and I’m betting the Buffs, who can score enough to cover this game. Houston’s defense is awful against the pass–the Cougs grade out as one of the 20 worst pass defenses in the nation–and Colorado can exploit them there. The key will be on the other side where Houston’s efficient offense will really test Colorado’s defense. The Buffs are good against the run, at least. With a long trip on a short week, I’m gonna fade Houston. They will score here and there should be plenty of points, but Colorado can pass on this defense enough to hang around on Friday night.

Marshall +2.5 vs App State — I’ve faded App State a few times recently and been rewarded. My ratings say the wrong team is favored here, and I’ll fade App State again as a short favorite on the road at Marshall — a place App State has never won since they joined the FBS. The Mountaineers are super banged up on the offensive line and in the secondary. They struggled to protect QB Malachi Singleton last weekend and it could be the same story here. Marshall plays much better at home than on the road, and you’ll get a great effort from Tony Gibson’s team as they look to clinch a bowl game. Marshall outright.

Mississippi St +3 vs Auburn — I know Miss State has looked awful recently with their carousel of backup quarterbacks, but it’s come against defenses like Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, and Texas. This Auburn defense is a huge step down, and this matchup actually favors the Bulldogs if they still have any signs of life. Auburn is a bad passing offense and much stronger running; while Miss State is stout defending the run. I see Auburn’s offense struggling here. And on offense MSU wants to run the ball and they’ve been successful at it this season; while Auburn ranks outside the top 100 in defending the rush. Low scoring, but I see Miss State being competitive and winning outright.

West Virginia -2 vs Kansas — It’s not one of my favorite bets for Saturday, but I have to play this spot against Kansas. The Jayhawks are winless away from Lawrence this season and coming off two demoralizing losses. Despite dominating the box score at TCU, KU gave up a last minute touchdown to lose the game. Then last week vs UCF, despite winning the box score once again, the Jayhawks gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game to fall to 3-6. Leipold said the losses have been tough and will be hard to bounce back from. I worry about West Virginia’s defense of course, but I’ve gotta fade Kansas here.

Arizona +2.5 vs Utah — I’m just gonna keep fading Utah, who I think is one of the most fortunate teams in the country. This team is begging to be beaten. The Utes barely covered last weekend in the Holy War, thanks in part to three BYU redzone turnovers, including one at the very end when a BYU touchdown could’ve potentially tied the game. Utah deserves some love for this defense, but their two biggest games–Houston and BYU–have been decided by numerous redzone takeaways. This is a tough spot for the Utes having to go on the road off the super hyped Holy War win. It’s Arizona’s second straight home game and they played last Friday night, so there’s a small rest advantage for the Wildcats. Arizona wins outright at home and finally ends this fraud Utah Utes voodoo.

Texas A&M +3 vs Tennessee — This is a massive sandwich spot for the Vols, who are looking ahead to a big home game vs LSU. Texas A&M didn’t look bad last weekend at South Carolina. They moved the ball well but struggled to finish drives. Marcel Reed hasn’t had a good year but he’s been much better at home. A&M also defends the run very well, so they can at least provide some resistance to the Vols offense, and I don’t respect the Tennessee pass game at all. Should be a low scoring game where points are valuable. If there is any fight left in Texas A&M, you’ll see it here. Take the Aggies at 3 or better.

Utah State at San Diego State, Under 21 1st Half — Utah State has an incredible defense that’s one of the best in the G6, and both teams have offenses that really struggle. Utah State’s last four games have all gone under this number in the first half, and the Aggies have allowed zero first-half points in their last two games. They also haven’t allowed an offensive first-half touchdown since October 9. This Aztecs offense is putrid, and this game should stay way under early on.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Former #Rockies UTL Tyler Freeman has reached a Minor League deal and non-roster invitation to Spring Training with the #Braves. Had back surgery in October but says he "feels great" and could be reay for game action by the end of March.

— Thomas Harding (@harding_at_mlb) November 12, 2026

The 27-year-old Tyler Freeman was a top-100 prospect in his day, a 2nd-round pick by Cleveland in 2017 who climbed the ranks before reaching the majors five years ago.

Then reality hit. Freeman has posted negative WAR in four of his five big-league seasons — and somehow, he’s still around. Not just around, either: he’s appeared in at least 79 games in each of the last three years for the Guardians and Rockies.

There are really only two reasons for that: defensive versatility and his ability to get on base. Freeman can play all over the diamond — even if he grades out poorly defensively — and while his .658 career OPS is ugly, he does carry a respectable .328 on-base percentage.

As Harding mentioned, Freeman also had a back procedure in October and won’t be ready to play until the end of March. That would normally wipe out his spring, but with a lockout looming, odds are he’s cleared to play by the time Spring Training actually happens.

If there’s one thing the Braves have done exceptionally well under Alex Anthopoulos, it’s find diamonds in the rough. Freeman has talent in there somewhere, and maybe Atlanta is the place he finally taps into it. He’ll be competing for one of the last roster spots — and no, this isn’t a sign the Braves are moving off Mauricio Dubon. It’s a depth move, nothing more, born out of just how few quality infielders are currently in the organization.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Both of those were proven true with the Braves’ first significant splash of the offseason, inking reliever Evan Phillips to a three-year, $35 million contract.

#Braves Sign Evan Phillips: pic.twitter.com/2ozx27CQUG

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) November 12, 2026

Phillips was actually drafted by the Braves in the 17th round back in 2015. He would go on to make his MLB debut three years later before he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles in the deal that netted the Braves Kevin Gausman.

But his career really took off when he joined the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second half of the 2021 season. That’s where he’s been for the last five years, boasting a 2.36 ERA over 232 appearances.

Phillips’ best season came back in 2022, when he posted a silly 1.14 ERA in 64 games. He followed that up with another really solid season in 2023, recording a 2.04 ERA. But in 2025, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. That cost him most of the season, and he only pitched in 31 games this year, finishing with a respectable 3.46 ERA.

That normally would be a cause for concern when handing a relief pitcher a three-year contract, but Phillips’ stuff was still off the charts. He struck out 31% of the batters he faced, featuring a fastball/sweeper combination that made opponents feel helpless.

With Raisel Iglesias hitting free agency and the Braves planning on moving Didier Fuentes back to the rotation, adding another high-leverage reliever was a must. Atlanta can now feel comfortable with that plan, moving Robert Suarez to the closer role, and one would assume this is the end of the line for Iglesias, who was outstanding for the Braves after they acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Principles matter, and this is an organization that’s spent a great deal of time ensuring a stable culture over the last 35 years, which is part of the reason they’ve had so much success. Keeping Profar around would put a massive black stain on all of that.

Even Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman suggested earlier in the week that Profar would not be welcomed back with open arms after negatively affecting the team’s chances at winning a World Series two years in a row.

“Profar certainly won’t be back in the clubhouse after performance-enhancing drug suspensions the last two years,” Bowman wrote. “So finding a right-handed-hitting outfielder stands at the top of the must-do list.”

But at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what I think, or what Bowman believes. It might not even matter what the players in the clubhouse feel. Alex Anthopoulos is sending a clear message that he’ll keep Profar around if he believes he can help the team win in 2027.

“As we get closer to camp and things like that, we’ll see, and we’ll see where the offseason takes us as well,” Anthopoulos said, via Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “There’s no absolutes. No decisions have been made. We’re going to do what’s best for the club, and it’s the beginning of the offseason, so it’s premature right now because I don’t know what our club’s going to look like.

“As I get a week into the offseason, two weeks, three weeks, a month, things can change, right? But in terms of absolute decisions being made, playing, not playing, none of that stuff. If anyone wants to speculate, none of that stuff’s been decided.”

Profar is currently competing in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he’s holding his own pretty well, hitting .315 with a home run and a .770 OPS through 14 games. The competition, obviously, isn’t the same as Major League Baseball, but one can assume the Braves are keeping a close eye on how he performs.

This is a story that doesn’t appear to have an end in sight. The Braves have to bring in some sort of competition this offseason, at the very least. Because at this point, there’s no telling whether Jurickson Profar will get popped for PEDs a third time, which would result in a permanent ban from baseball. He was dumb enough to do it two years in a row.

But the options that are clearly better than Profar in left field — as far as free agency is concerned — are few and far between. And the Braves are already on the hook for the $15 million they owe him no matter what. That’s what Alex Anthopoulos is currently mulling. Is the juice — whatever Profar could provide on the field — worth the squeeze of keeping him in the clubhouse? From the sound of it, we’re going to find out.

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Photo: IMAGO / NurPhoto

Thomas signed a one-year deal worth $3.1 million with the Falcons in the offseason and has started every game for the team, recording 25 tackles, 12 quarterback hits, and two sacks. Now he gets a raise to $11 million per season over three years.

“He demonstrates what we love about this game every single day,” Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said, via William McFadden of The Atlanta Falcons team website. “The toughness, the strain, the effort—the relentless effort. And then the high-level execution, the consistency. If there’s a guy that we can really lean on on our defense, he’s one of those human beings. I’ve been so overwhelmed with what he’s brought to us.”

For Henderson, it’s a two-year extension worth up to $20 million with $11 million in guarantees — a well-earned reward for a player who’s been through a lot of highs and lows throughout his career.

Henderson was originally drafted 8th overall by the Jaguars after starring at the University of Florida. But he didn’t even make it two seasons with Jacksonville before he was traded to the Panthers, where he continued to struggle.

After signing to a couple of practice squads, Henderson didn’t appear in a game in 2024. He signed with the Falcons ahead of the 2025 season but was cut and relegated to the practice squad, where he would remain until December, appearing in four of the final five games of the season.

That was enough for Henderson to stick in Atlanta, and now he’s become an integral piece of Jeff Ulbrich’s defense. He’s been the Falcons’ best cornerback this season — ahead of A.J. Terrell, whose injury early in the season opened the door for Henderson in the starting lineup — with quarterbacks completing just 55% of their passes when targeting him.

It’s a tremendous story of resilience and a richly deserved extension for a player who’s now expected to be a pivotal member of the Falcons’ defense moving forward.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Among Braves players, Chris Sale, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris II all received MVP votes. No surprises there. Sale was a top-three finisher in the NL Cy Young race. Olson clubbed 41 home runs and was the best first baseman in the sport, and Michael Harris II was probably the best player on the entire team.

The surprise? Ozzie Albies also received an MVP vote, with Rick Cerrone of Baseball Digest ranking him the 6th most valuable player in the National League this season.

I would like for you all to look at that 2nd Pittsburgh voter’s ballot because oh my lord https://t.co/P6GAkT9S22 pic.twitter.com/hikD2pSfzu

— AT (@BaseballWRLD_) November 13, 2026

Cerrone must have been drinking that Braves Kool-Aid, because he also had Matt Olson finishing third ahead of Shohei Ohtani — but even that isn’t as ridiculous as giving Albies an MVP vote at all.

Listen, I’ve been a staunch defender of Ozzie Albies his entire career. He’s been magnificent for the Braves and was one of the few players who actually showed up in the postseason this year. That said, this might have been the worst season of his entire career. Take out a hot month or so to begin the season, and Albies hit .210 with a .610 OPS over the final 125 games.

And while, yes, it’s fun to have a good laugh at just how nonsensical it is to have him finish sixth in the MVP race, we also have to hold Mr. Cerrone accountable. There’s simply no way he should be allowed to vote on any awards moving forward. Just imagine if this were a tight race and his vote actually mattered. It would be World War III amongst baseball fans right now.

Cerrone also had Schwarber second, a guy who finished the season with 2.6 WAR. This is the same type of voter who’s likely keeping one of your all-time favorite players out of Cooperstown. Baseball has to be better about holding these people accountable. Be serious or lose your vote.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Atlanta’s bullpen was one of the best in baseball a year ago, but adding to it this offseason was a necessity because of two major developments: Raisel Iglesias is a free agent, and the Braves will move Didier Fuentes back to the rotation to start the 2027 season.

The Phillips signing is likely the writing on the wall for Iglesias, who is projected to earn a one-year deal worth around $15 million in free agency. It’s hard to imagine the Braves giving that to him now, unless his market turns out to be a lot cooler than expected, which means Robert Suarez will likely be asked to close games moving forward.

Suarez was the Braves’ big bullpen acquisition a year ago, inking a three-year, $40 million contract. In his first season in Atlanta, he was mostly brilliant, posting a 0.56 ERA through his first 31 appearances. An elbow injury then cost him the next several months, but he returned at the very end of the season, pitched in the playoffs, and flashed his typical 100 mph heater — suggesting there shouldn’t be too many concerns about what he can provide in 2027 and beyond.

Phillips will likely slide into Fuentes’ old role, where the Braves hope he’ll be a dominant setup man, as he was with the Dodgers. He posted a 3.46 ERA last season after returning from Tommy John surgery, but the stuff graded out as elite, and he struck out 31% of the batters he faced. Prior to the surgery, Phillips recorded a 2.21 ERA over 187 appearances from 2022-2024.

As a rookie, Fuentes was among the most dominant relievers in the entire sport. Even Phillips at the peak of his powers might not be able to replace that production, but there’s no question the Braves have to see if Fuentes’ success can carry over into the rotation. He came through the organization as a starting pitcher, and now he should have the confidence that his stuff is essentially unhittable when he’s rolling.

If that experiment is successful, the Braves’ rotation wouldn’t be in a bad spot after all. A one-two punch of Chris Sale and Didier Fuentes could prove electric, but another addition to the group remains a must. They’re also still down a man in the bullpen, so expect at least one more signing to round out the pitching staff.

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Raisel Iglesias

Free Agent Rank: 24
Landing Spot: Detroit Tigers (1 year, $16 million)

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Kelly has Raisel Iglesias leaving Atlanta after a very successful stint with the club, which is something I’ve acknowledged is very possible. Just about every contract prediction has him landing a one-year deal in the $15 million range — a very fair projection, but still one I could see the Braves failing to match, especially if Kelly’s prediction later on comes to fruition.

Tyler Mahle

Free Agent Rank: 20
Landing Spot: Houston Astros (2 years, $39 million with $22 million club option)

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Tyler Mahle is another Braves free agent whose status feels very much up in the air. He was unbelievable for the Braves down the stretch, posting a 1.99 ERA over his final nine regular season starts, then delivering two brilliant performances in the postseason. He undoubtedly made himself a lot of money with that run. The question is whether the Braves believe that level of production is sustainable.

Sonny Gray

Free Agent Rank: 11
Landing Spot: Atlanta Braves (2 years, $50 million)

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I’m not sure an offseason has passed where the Braves haven’t been connected to Sonny Gray in one form or another. He just feels like somebody Atlanta would target, and that price is fairly similar to the deals we’ve seen the Braves work out with Charlie Morton and Chris Sale toward the end of their careers. Gray is coming off a stellar campaign with the Boston Red Sox, recording a 2.72 ERA over 29 starts. His age is a concern, though, at 37, and he did experience a significant dip in his strikeout numbers this season.

Adrián Morejón

Free Agent Rank: 6
Landing Spot: Atlanta Braves (4 years, $80 million)

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Morejón would be quite the upgrade over Raisel Iglesias for the Braves’ bullpen — an area where Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t been afraid to spend over the years. But with so many holes to fill, I have a very difficult time believing they’re going to offer $20 million AAV to any reliever. Add in the fact that Morejón received a qualifying offer from the Padres — which would cost the Braves their 2nd- and 5th-highest draft picks along with international bonus pool money — and I’d be downright shocked if this deal came to fruition.

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Braves Top 10 Prospects

1. Eric Hartman
2. Cam Caminiti
3. Tate Southisene
4. AJ Gracia
5. Carter Beck
6. Kaiden McCarthy
7. Jensen Hirschkorn
8. Briggs McKenzie
9. John Gil
10. Owen Murphy

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Eric Hartman was the star of the Braves’ system in 2026, blossoming from a relative unknown into one of the top prospects in all of baseball, thanks to a stint in High-A Rome in which he hit 24 home runs and swiped 38 bags in just 94 games. Hartman did run into some bumps once he reached Double-A, recording just a .577 OPS over his final 34 games, but still just 20 years old, this is a five-tool player everybody will be keeping a close eye on in 2027.

Cam Caminiti is the Braves’ top-ranked pitching prospect, and his 2026 campaign was essentially the opposite of what we saw from Hartman. He struggled a bit in High-A Rome for a prospect of his stature, but he started to roll by midseason, and his final six starts with Double-A Columbus were outstanding — a 2.01 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning.

In terms of consistency, Tate Southisene was probably the most impressive in the entire system. He rolled through Low-A Augusta, continued to rake in Rome, and even earned a promotion to Double-A at just 19 years old. Unfortunately, a hand injury once he got there cut his season short, but he returned for the Arizona Fall League, where he’s stayed red-hot, hitting .341 with a .914 OPS over 13 games.

Following the top three, we get four members of the Braves’ 2026 draft class. The club doubled down on outfielders in the first round with Gracia and Beck. Gracia has not made an appearance with the organization yet due to injury, but Beck hit .409 in 11 games before earning a quick promotion to Rome. The Braves then took two high-school arms oozing with upside in Kaiden McCarthy and Jensen Hirschkorn, who slot in behind the collegiate outfielders.

Briggs McKenzie was the Braves’ fourth-round selection in 2025, when Atlanta went way overslot to get him to forgo his commitment to LSU. He didn’t make an appearance last season and only started seven games this year, but he was brilliant over that short stint, recording a 2.08 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts per nine.

John Gil looks the part of an MLB player and was a lot of people’s pick to really break out in 2026. That didn’t quite come to fruition early on, as he was rather underwhelming in Rome while others around him took off. But Gil ended the season strong after a promotion to Columbus, posting an .812 OPS over 35 games. If it all comes together for him next year, he has the kind of upside to be the best of the entire bunch.

Rounding out the top 10 is Owen Murphy, who Braves fans have already gotten a brief glimpse of. He appeared in five games with the major-league club this season, recording a 6.00 ERA. Murphy doesn’t have immense upside, but there’s hope he can establish himself as a long-term rotation piece as early as 2027.

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It hasn’t worked.

The Braves have just one playoff series win over the last five seasons, beating the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card Series this year. They may have won 94 games this season, but after watching Milwaukee dismantle the Dodgers — the team that knocked out Atlanta — this wasn’t a club close to its ultimate goal.

Which raises the question: how much longer can they keep doing the same thing and hoping for better results? Eventually, one would think the Braves must take a swing if they want to win another championship with this core group, which will soon be broken up one way or another.

Ozzie Albies has just one season remaining on his contract. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be a free agent in two. Matt Olson isn’t getting any younger, and this very well could be the final season of Chris Sale’s career.

If there were ever a time to make a blockbuster trade, it’s this offseason. So let’s take a look at what the Braves have to offer to get that done.

5. JR Ritchie

Ritchie tossed over 73 innings for the major-league club this year and was a bit all over the place, recording a 4.91 ERA. However, he’s still just 23 years old and would be regarded as a top-100 prospect if he hadn’t burned his prospect eligibility this season. For a real blockbuster, the Braves would have to include more, but he’s definitely someone teams around the league would still value in trade conversations.

4. Cam Caminiti

Caminiti is the top-ranked pitching prospect in the system and has legitimate frontline potential at the major-league level, which he showed over his final six starts after a promotion to Double-A Columbus, posting a 2.01 ERA while averaging north of a strikeout per inning. This is the point on the list where I believe the Braves could start bringing in game-changing talent in a blockbuster.

3. Eric Hartman

Hartman is the top prospect in the Braves organization according to most prospect outlets. He’s a true five-tool athlete with power, speed, and an incredible arm — all of which were on display during his memorable run in Rome this season, where he hit 24 homers and swiped 38 bags in fewer than 100 games. He’s a player the Braves would have a real tough time parting with, but I could see a scenario where the organization might want to sell high. Hartman wasn’t a highly regarded player coming into the season, and he really slowed down after he was promoted to Double-A, recording a .577 OPS over the final 34 games of the season.

2. Tate Southisene

If Hartman isn’t your top prospect in the organization, it’s probably Tate Southisene. At just 19 years old, the Braves’ 2025 first-round pick raked at every level, earning a promotion to Double-A in his first professional season. Unfortunately, a hand injury cut his campaign short, but he’s picked up right where he left off in the Arizona Fall League, recording an OPS approaching 1.000 over 14 games. Southisene is probably the prospect the Braves would least like to part with this offseason.

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.

Do I think the Braves seriously entertain offers on Ronald Acuña Jr.? Absolutely not — I’ve made that clear through every avenue I can since the end of the season. That said, I could at least see them gauging interest with only two years remaining on his contract, and if a Godfather offer did come across the table, perhaps they’d bite. It would have to be something pretty incredible, because the Braves’ best chance at winning a World Series is with Acuña on the roster — but there are probably a few packages out there that would at least make them consider it.

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As the 8th overall pick in a draft class many believe could go down as historic, Flemings comes to Atlanta with especially high expectations. He was a star at Houston as a freshman but didn’t play the flashy brand of basketball that defined much of the rest of the top 10. His calling cards were defense, maturity, and the ability to command an offense. He rarely turns the ball over and possesses elite passing skills.

All of that has been on display early for the Hawks, but Flemings is also quickly proving he’s more than capable offensively — the part of his game that was always going to decide his ceiling at the next level. In the Hawks’ 120-105 win over the Wizards, Flemings was in the starting lineup, going 6-for-9 from the field, including 2-for-2 from behind the arc, for 14 points to go along with four assists over 23 minutes.

On the season, he’s averaging just 8.0 points per game but is shooting it at over a 50% clip from the field and knocking down nearly half of his three-pointers. He’s also putting up nearly five assists per game in just 21 minutes, while doing a commendable job avoiding turnovers. The game already isn’t too fast for Flemings, and we’re not even 10 games into his rookie campaign. By April of next year, we could be talking about him as one of Atlanta’s best players.

Zuby Ejiofor’s first season isn’t off to quite the same start, but that was never expected for someone who was a late first-round pick. However, his performance against the Wizards on Wednesday will surely garner him some more minutes moving forward, even when everyone is healthy. In just 17 minutes, he racked up 11 points, three rebounds, two assists, and two steals.

Ejiofor is a ball of energy who can impact the game in every phase. He gets after it defensively, crashes the boards relentlessly, and has impressive hands for somebody his size. That’s exactly what made him so valued at St. John’s and a first-round pick despite not being particularly great in any one area. Every NBA team needs winning players like that, especially come playoff time, and with a few more performances like Wednesday’s, Ejiofor will find himself a regular in the Hawks’ rotation.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

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Week 9 was another successful week for the column, with our Locks going a perfect 3-0 and our Best Bet (Georgia Southern) covering once again to move to 10-0 on the season and keep its undefeated streak alive.

Week 10 is a slate we’ve all had circled on the calendar since the summer. It’s one of the best college football weekends we’ve had in recent years, and I couldn’t be more excited. Unlike some weeks, I’ve got strong leans on several of the marquee matchups, along with plenty of thoughts on some games flying under the radar.

November is here, and the stakes are only getting higher. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and make it another winning Saturday!

Locks: 24-8-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 30-26-1

Column overall: 54-34-2

East Carolina ML vs. USF

East Carolina is my Best Bet this week! I grabbed ECU as a small home dog when this line opened, which was a pretty significant difference from my power ratings that have the Pirates favored by more than a field goal here. The market has since moved pretty heavily toward ECU, but I would still back the Pirates at the current number, but probably with a cheap moneyline.

I’m 2-0 fading USF this season, and I continue to be unimpressed with this Bulls team, particularly on offense. USF has played an incredibly weak schedule, ranking 148th nationally in strength of schedule, and yet this offense has still struggled to consistently move the football. Now the Bulls have to go on the road and face the best defense they’ve seen all season.

Last week’s extremely misleading 30-10 win over UAB is another example of why I’m not buying USF. The Bulls benefited from not one, but two scoop-and-score touchdowns, while UAB also missed a pair of field goals. Overall, the game was more even on a down-to-down basis than the final score would suggest. The Bulls are sitting at 6-2, but they’re just a few plays away from being somewhere around 4-4.

USF opened the season by beating FIU despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards and benefiting from three Panthers turnovers. USF needed a fourth-down Hail Mary to escape Army, trailed Bowling Green late in the fourth quarter, and was outplayed at home in a loss to Temple. They followed that stretch by padding their numbers against Kent State, one of the five worst teams in the country.

Meanwhile, East Carolina has played a considerably tougher schedule, and I think the Pirates are much better than their 4-4 record suggests. In fact, they’re only a handful of plays away from potentially sitting at 6-2.

Look at ECU’s losses since their week one defeat at Alabama. The Pirates lost at home to a healthy App State team, despite putting together a much better box score. Two costly turnovers led to App State points, and ECU also missed a field goal.

Their other two losses both came in overtime on the road against UAB and Memphis. Both were competitive games that ECU had opportunities to win, but turnovers proved costly again. The Pirates were particularly impressive at Memphis, where they led 16-3 at halftime and eventually forced overtime despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.

I’m not suggesting we should go back through every team’s schedule and hand out hypothetical wins and losses, but when you consistently see misleading final scores and costly turnovers, I think it tells you something about the true strength of a team. In my opinion, East Carolina has been undervalued by its record, while South Florida has been overvalued by its.

The big news is USF starting quarterback Michael Van Buren was injured against UAB and may not be available this weekend. Backup Luke Kromenhoek played most of that game, and while his legs certainly make him dangerous, there’s not much in his passing game that worries me.

ECU has an underrated defense that is solid against the pass but particularly strong against the run. If Kromenhoek gets the start, I like ECU’s chances of limiting his rushing ability and forcing him to make plays through the air, especially on a short week of preparation.

I’ll trust this Pirate defense to get some key stops against a South Florida offense that I just don’t think very highly of. The wrong team opened as the favorite here, and the market is finally starting to catch up. It should be a low-scoring, physical game, and I’ll take East Carolina at home with the more experienced head coach and the better defense.

BYU +6.5 @ Utah

My power ratings make Utah just a 4.5-point favorite here, so when this number climbed above six, I had to grab the Cougars. I’ve been on record in this column saying I think Utah is overrated. The Utes have played a relatively soft schedule and have benefited from some pretty fortunate circumstances to remain undefeated. At some point, I think this team is going to get exposed, and the Holy War could be the spot.

The Utes beat Kansas 41-24, but the Jayhawks averaged nearly seven yards per play and turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Utah 10-yard line in the fourth quarter. Utah then gave up 7.2 yards per play to Colorado, and escaped with a 27-24 road win in a game it could have easily lost.

And against the best team they’ve faced, Houston, the Utes were held scoreless in the first half at home against a really bad defense. Utah eventually won 21-13, but benefited from a Houston fumble inside the 10-yard line and another fourth-quarter fumble that handed the Utes an easy touchdown.

I think Utah is a good football team. The Utes do plenty of impressive things, but I think their undefeated record is more impressive than their actual week-to-week performances. At some point, some of that good fortune is going to catch up with them.

BYU, meanwhile, has played the tougher schedule and has an offense capable of moving the ball through the air. But the Cougars prefer a slower, more run-oriented approach, and that’s exactly the kind of style I like when catching points. Both teams rank outside the top 85 nationally in seconds per play, which should lead to a physical game with fewer possessions and make getting nearly a touchdown even more valuable.

The Cougars should also receive a huge boost with the expected return of star running back LJ Martin. BYU has clearly missed him, and his return should give the offense a much-needed spark while opening things up for Bear Bachmeier in the passing game.

One injury that does concern me is the absence of star cornerback Evan Johnson, a future high NFL Draft pick who would certainly make a difference against Utah’s passing offense. Still, I expect this to be a physical, competitive rivalry game, and I’m comfortable backing the underdog that’s been more battle-tested.

Three of the last five Holy War games have been decided by one possession, with another ending in a nine-point BYU victory. These games are usually competitive regardless of what the records say.

Utah is a good team, don’t get me wrong. But ranking the Utes in the top five teams of the College Football Playoff rankings is a little too rich for me, and I thought this point spread was too. I think BYU is very capable of winning this game outright, and anything above 4.5 points gets my attention.

Syracuse +3.5 vs Clemson

We won outright with Syracuse last weekend against SMU, and we’re riding the Steve Angeli train once again. I make this game a pick’em, so I was pretty surprised to see Clemson open as a favorite of more than a field goal. My power ratings made SMU a 3.5-point favorite at Syracuse last weekend, and I think the Mustangs are considerably better than Clemson, so this line doesn’t make much sense to me.

I think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers, who now have to make the long trip to New York for their second straight road game after emptying the tank in a big win at Florida State that got Mike Norvell fired. After recent losses to Miami and Virginia Tech, last week’s victory had to be a huge sigh of relief for Dabo Swinney and company. Clemson finally put together a complete performance in a difficult road environment, and I could certainly see a bit of a letdown here. More importantly, I’m just not convinced this Clemson team is good enough to string together those kinds of performances on back-to-back road trips.

Look at Clemson’s four wins before Florida State. The Tigers beat Georgia Southern 22-7 at home, and barely escaped North Carolina in a game where the Tar Heels had all the momentum before a lengthy rain delay. Then they won on the road against an awful Cal team, and beat FCS Charleston Southern. Not exactly a murderer’s row.

Who could lay points on the road with this Clemson offense? The Tigers rank outside the top 100 nationally in multiple offensive categories and have struggled all season to sustain drives, run the football consistently, and finish possessions with touchdowns. They managed just 22 points against Georgia Southern, scored only 17 offensive points against Cal, and had only one touchdown at home against Virginia Tech.

That’s not exactly encouraging when you’re being asked to lay points on the road against a Syracuse offense that has scored 30 and 31 points in Steve Angeli’s two games back as the starter. Clemson has hit those point totals just once against FBS competition this season, and that came last weekend against FSU.

While Clemson tries to get itself up for another road game, Syracuse should be brimming with confidence after consecutive wins. The Orange have been competitive the entire season, even while dealing with major quarterback injuries, and they’re finally starting to put things together offensively with Angeli back under center. And Syracuse won’t be intimidated by Clemson. The Orange went into Death Valley last season as 17-point underdogs and walked out with a 34-21 victory.

Ultimately, this is a fade of a Clemson team that I don’t believe is good enough to replicate last week’s performance, especially on the road for a second consecutive week. Syracuse continues to be undervalued according to my power ratings, and until the market catches up, I’ll keep riding the Orange. At a field goal or better, I love Cuse.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Boston College +7.5 vs Florida State — I usually look to back teams off of firing their coach, but I placed this bet before Norvell was let go and I’m riding with it. I have no idea where the mindset of this FSU team is, but I can’t imagine they’re gonna be pumped up to play a sleepy noon game at cold, windy Boston College. At 4-4, the Eagles are better than expected, and I’m expecting a bounce-back effort at home after last week’s 47-2 loss to Duke. My ratings only make this FSU -4.5.

South Carolina -5.5 vs Texas A&M — Shane Beamer has the Gamecocks in a groove right now and that should continue this weekend. Marcel Reed has been truly terrible on the road in 2026: 50% completion, 1 TD, 5 INT. And A&M is averaging only 10.7 points per game on the road this season. That’s not great against this South Carolina defense which should bring a lot of pressure on Reed. This is also a major revenge spot after Beamer’s group blew a 30-0 halftime lead in this matchup last season. I project this around Carolina -8, so I’ll lay anything less than a touchdown.

LSU -4.5 vs Alabama — I’m not surprised to see this line movement favor LSU this week. My ratings project LSU -6.5, so this market move is warranted in my opinion. This is a bad matchup for an Alabama offense that has struggled against good defense. Now, in Death Valley, they’ll face a great pass defense with a front that is elite at creating havoc. Those are weaknesses for the Tide, mainly havoc, where the Tide are 113th nationally in havoc allowed. I’d take the Bayou Bengals at anything under -6.

Notre Dame -5.5 vs Miami — Similar story in South Bend where I’m not surprised by this line movement either. I project ND -6.5. Obviously the injury to Malachi Toney factors into that a lot, but before his injury news this line was floating around -5 or -5.5, and I would’ve recommended laying the points with the Irish. I just don’t trust this Miami pass defense that has been soft all season.

South Alabama +9.5 @ Louisiana — I’ve successfully faded Louisiana in recent weeks since they have a pretty misleading resume. I project Louisiana -4.5 here, and anything over a touchdown is worth a bet on the Jaguars, who have a fantastic offense but a porous defense. There will be lots of points in this one, and Louisiana will get their fair share. But I trust this South Alabama offense more, and in a back-and-forth shootout, catching a touchdown or more is so valuable.

Utah State +3 vs Fresno St — Another case of wrong team favored! I really like this spot for Utah State, who catch Fresno in a bit of a letdown after the Bulldogs’ big win over Oregon State. It was a great win for Fresno, but slightly misleading when you consider the Beavers fumbled inside the redzone, which cost them some points, and also fumbled inside their own 20, which led directly to an easy Fresno touchdown. Fresno was also off a bye and had two weeks to prepare for that huge game. Now they’ll go on the road and face one of the most underrated G6 defenses. The Aggies have been rolling on the defensive end recently, which is part of why this total is so low. I’ll take Bronco Mendenhall at home catching points

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Coppolella has since been reinstated by the league. These days he writes for Baseball America, and his latest piece centers on the excitement of the upcoming GM meetings and the discussions that happen when some of the most powerful forces in the sport gather in the same place.

Naturally, Coppolella discusses several trades that almost happened — and man, there is a doozy that would have had the Braves looking much different.

The big one he brings up is a mega-blockbuster the Braves presented to the Yankees back in 2014, when they realized a rebuild was necessary to restock what was arguably the league’s worst farm system. At the time, the player they received the most calls on was none other than Jason Heyward. The Yankees were among the interested parties, so the Braves floated an idea.

Braves Proposed Trade To Send Jason Heyward to New York

Braves Receive: Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Ian Clarkin and Manny Banuelos

Yankees Receive: Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, B.J. Upton, Chris Johnson and David Carpenter

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Coppolella acknowledges that it was the Braves who offered this deal and the Yankees who ultimately decided not to go through with it. However, he did add that they didn’t hang up the phone immediately. This is a trade that was genuinely considered — one that would have landed the Braves arguably the best offensive force of this generation before he ever got to the majors, along with several other impactful pieces.

In the end, the Yankees’ lack of action on the proposed blockbuster turned the Braves to the Cardinals, who sent Atlanta Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Miller followed it up with a helluva first season with the Braves, and Coppolella was then able to flip him for #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson along with Ender Inciarte. Jenkins also helped the Braves acquire Luke Jackson, who played a key part in the 2021 World Series run. So, Atlanta still came out of it quite well in the grand scheme of things, just not as well as it would have had it pried Judge out of New York.

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However, there are a lot of prospect evaluators who actually see 2025 first-round selection Tate Southisene as the one with the highest upside. He didn’t put up quite the explosive numbers Hartman did, but at just 19 years old, he recorded a .929 OPS in Low-A Augusta and then an OPS north of .800 in Rome before earning a promotion to Double-A Columbus.

Those decisions to move Southisene through the system so quickly should tell you all you need to know about how highly the Braves think of him. They’re never an organization shy about pushing its best prospects early, which sets up a really exciting 2027 campaign.

But here’s a list I didn’t expect to see Southisene on so early. When constructing a top 10 of dynasty second basemen, Baseball America had the Las Vegas product coming in at #8.

The second basemen with the brightest futures

More fantasy baseball coverage from BA's James Anderson:https://t.co/bFjVJYvFAK pic.twitter.com/zKx16VGrcS

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) November 4, 2026

Just look at some of the names on the list. You have All-Stars, MVP candidates, and then little ole’ fresh-faced 20-year-old Tate Southisene, who just completed his first season as a professional. That’s an incredible compliment from what I would call the best in the business at evaluating prospects.

One other thing worth noting — and this isn’t a knock on Southisene — is that he’s being categorized as a second baseman, not a shortstop. In truth, it’s far too early in his development to really know where he’s going to play defensively. He’s the kind of athlete who could even end up in the outfield.

However, it’s something I try to discuss often when people act as if the Braves’ future at shortstop is already in the organization. It is the hardest position to play defensively by far, and most prospects — no matter how talented — cannot do it well enough to stick. Vaughn Grissom and Nacho Alvarez Jr. are perfect recent examples.

The Braves themselves don’t know what to expect out of any of these young talents on the farm just yet, so nothing should hold them back from making a big splash at shortstop if the right trade opportunity arises.

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Perry Minasian will be returning to the Braves as a senior adviser to amateur scouting, the same role as a Dana Brown.

They will be working closely with with Braves VP of amateur scouting Ronit Shah.

First, @BNightengale

— Jesús Cano (@Jesus_Cano88) November 6, 2026

Brown was previously the Braves’ vice president of scouting from 2019-2022, helping Atlanta to a World Series and earning direct credit for finding Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Tyler Matzek, and several other cornerstones of the franchise.

Minasian was the Braves’ assistant general manager from 2017-2020 before he was hired to be the general manager of the Angels. It’s fair to say that went poorly. The Angels were regarded as one of the worst organizations in baseball for the entirety of Minasian’s tenure, and something similar could be said about Dana Brown. While the Astros were a far better team, he didn’t do enough to help them maintain their stature as the American League’s top club, which led to him being let go.

But just because these two didn’t find success as general managers doesn’t mean they aren’t well-respected talent evaluators. Together, the three helped turn the Braves into a juggernaut in the National League, one that’s won seven division titles and a World Series since 2018. Brown and Minasian both clearly have the trust of Alex Anthopoulos, which might be the single most important factor in constructing a front office.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Kevin Stefanski said James Pearce Jr.'s back injury "flared up" and he was limited in practice, and the Falcons will know more about his status in the next 24-48 hours.

— Tori McElhaney (@tori_mcelhaney) November 6, 2026

Falcons fans are obviously eager to see Pearce back in action. He looked like he was on his way to becoming one of the best pass rushers in all of football toward the end of last season, and on top of that, Atlanta really needs him if they want to find a way to win on Sunday.

The Falcons are already severely short-handed across the defensive front, with Samson Ebukam landing on Injured Reserve earlier this week, and the best way to stop Joe Burrow and company is to get him on the ground. It’s been that way his entire career. If the Falcons give Burrow time while trying to guard Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the back end, it’s going to be a massacre on foreign soil.

On the promising side of the injury report, Atlanta’s secondary will get back Billy Bowman Sr., and Divine Deablo could return this week as well. Brian Robinson Jr., who had a stellar start to the season behind Bijan Robinson, remains out with a hamstring injury.

In the abysmal NFC South, the 3-5 Falcons aren’t in must-win territory just yet. But things are going to start looking extraordinarily sketchy if they can’t get it done in Madrid, because the Chiefs await them when they get back on US soil, and following the bye, they play two more playoff contenders in the Vikings and Lions.

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This continues our series covering the top trade targets at each position of need for the Braves, moving on to the longest-standing hole on the roster: shortstop.

If you missed the first part of this series, follow the link below:

• Top offseason trade targets: Starting Pitchers

Jeremy Peña

Peña is entering the final year of his contract, and the Astros no longer appear to be serious contenders in the American League. That puts them at a crossroads. Do they keep chasing glory, which would require an extension for their star shortstop, or is it time to retool the roster?

If the latter is the route they take, trading Peña is an obvious offseason move for Houston. He’s an All-Star shortstop who’s posted an OPS above .800 in each of the last two seasons, and what makes him especially attractive for the Braves is that while he has pop in his bat, he’s a guy who can hit .300 and won’t strike out too much. Atlanta needs more players like that in the lineup. Peña should be at the top of their list of trade candidates if the Astros make him available.

Corey Seager

There have been murmurs connecting Corey Seager to the Braves dating back to last offseason, and the Rangers are another organization that seems to be mulling a potential rebuild. When healthy, Seager is an absolute monster. He’s a five-time All-Star and World Series MVP who owns an .860 OPS for his career.

The issue is he’s had problems staying healthy. He hasn’t played in more than 123 games since 2022. On top of that, Seager will be 33 next season, and he’s still owed $155 million until he’s 37. The Rangers would surely have to pay down some of that money if they wanted to move him, but with Ozzie Albies set to become a free agent next offseason, there could be a way this works in Atlanta.

Zach Neto

The Angels have new ownership and a new front office, which means they finally seem to be thinking clearly. This is an organization that needed to blow it up and rebuild a decade ago, but they kept trying to hang onto some shred of competitiveness, which set them back for years.

The rebuild began at this year’s trade deadline, when the Angels shipped off several valuable pieces. Most expect that to continue this offseason, with Zach Neto being someone teams will be calling on. Neto has posted 5+ WAR in each of the last three seasons. He’s 26 and isn’t a free agent until 2030. That’s going to make him extraordinarily expensive in terms of prospect capital, but he would be the long-term answer at shortstop the Braves have been looking for.

Gunnar Henderson

It’s been reported that the Orioles will listen on all of their players this offseason outside of Pete Alonso. That includes star shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who is a couple of years removed from an 8.8 WAR season that landed him fourth in the AL MVP voting.

Henderson’s numbers have plummeted dramatically since that campaign, as he recorded just 3.2 WAR to go along with a .712 OPS this year. However, if you’re thinking this is a buy-low option, think again. Henderson is still immensely talented, just 26 years old, and comes with two years of team control. The Orioles are going to get a king’s ransom for him, or they aren’t going to trade him at all.

Otto Lopez

It’s also been reported that the Marlins will listen on Otto Lopez. The Miami shortstop is coming off a career year, posting 6.1 WAR while leading the league in hits and hitting over .300. That’s the kind of table-setter the Braves’ lineup needs. He also isn’t a free agent until 2030.

The Marlins have made big trades inside the division before, but the Braves would certainly have to pay some sort of tax to acquire Lopez. That could be worth it if they believe he’ll continue at the rate he played this season, but that’s the only elite season he has to his name.

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Alex Anthopoulos is typically the type of general manager who strikes fast. The Braves make most of their free agent additions before December, and now they have even more reason to do so with the lockout set to begin December 1st. We should hopefully see moves fairly quickly, so let’s take a look at who national media pundits are predicting the Braves to land in free agency.

MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents

MLB Trade Rumors just dropped its annual list of the top 50 free agents, along with contract projections and predictions for where each one lands. Here’s who they had linked to the Braves.

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• Sonny Gray (2 years, $55 million) — 1 writer
• Tyler Mahle (3 years, $54 million) — 2 writers
• Clay Holmes (3 years, $45 million) — 1 writer
• Mauricio Dubon (2 years, $18 million) — 3 writers
• Raisel Iglesias (1 year, $17 million) — 1 writer

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The writers over at MLB Trade Rumors don’t expect the Braves to be lavish spenders in free agency, and I can’t say I blame them. Atlanta already has so much money tied up in its core group that it’s really difficult to pony up for some of the top guys, especially with several holes to fill.

The consensus is they expect the Braves to land a mid-tier starting pitcher, maybe two. Tyler Mahle coming back makes a lot of sense. Sonny Gray has been linked to Atlanta for years, even if it’s never come to fruition, and Clay Holmes has ties to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner from their time together with the Mets.

All three writers agree on Mauricio Dubon returning to Atlanta. At that price point, it would be a no-brainer — and because of Dubon’s defensive versatility, the Braves could still look to upgrade shortstop through trade if the opportunity presents itself.

Only one writer predicted Iglesias to return, and I’d agree it’s a toss-up if he’s set to command $17 million. He’s getting up there in age, struggled to close out last season, and the Braves already have an experienced closer on the roster in Robert Suarez. If they don’t retain Iglesias, though, they’ll be in the market for another high-leverage reliever.

Jim Bowden names Braves “best fits” for four free agents

For The Athletic, Bowden also ranked the top 40 free agents in this year’s class along with best fits for each. Of them, he connected four players to the Braves.

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• Mauricio Dubon
• Randy Arozarena
• Raisel Iglesias
• Hiromi Itoh

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David Schoenfield of ESPN also named the Braves a “best fit” for Arozarena, and the match could not be more obvious.

Left field is one of the few areas in the lineup where Atlanta can stand to upgrade significantly. It’s been a sore spot since the 2021 season, with a long line of failed attempts to fix it. Signing Arozarena would be the first time the Braves really spent money on the position. He’s expected to command around $100 million this winter, coming off a career year in which he recorded nearly 6.0 WAR, mashing 26 home runs with an .865 OPS.

Arozarena also has a track record of performing in October. Over 45 postseason games, he has 12 home runs to go along with a .946 OPS. Considering how much of the Braves’ lineup has no-showed in the playoffs over the years, adding a guy with that kind of experience when it matters most is awfully appealing.

The issue with Arozarena is that he’ll be 32 next season. He’s likely in line for at least a four-year deal, and that’s quite a commitment for a player his age — something the Braves have been hesitant to take on in the past.

Maybe that changes out of sheer desperation. It’s evident what the Braves have tried at the position hasn’t worked, but Anthopoulos hasn’t shown he’s a general manager who changes his approach very often, so I wouldn’t hold my breath on Arozarena or any of the top outfield targets, who are all around the same age.

SportsTalk ATL’s Braves Free Agency Predictions

• Braves sign Trevor Rogers (4 years, $100 million)
• Braves sign Mauricio Dubon (2 years, $20 million)
• Braves sign Michael Soroka (2 years, $25 million)

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The Braves probably won’t get all of their work done in free agency, with most of the focus on starting pitching — the strongest part of this year’s class.

I have them going a little bigger than most on that front. They just have so many questions in the rotation, and this very well could be Chris Sale’s final year in Atlanta. They need to find another big arm to pair with him, one that can also stabilize the group once Sale is no longer around.

Trevor Rogers at around $25 million AAV over four years is far from an absurd price. He’ll be 29 next season and has recorded 7.5 WAR with a 3.16 ERA and 3.20 FIP since the start of the 2025 campaign.

I also have the Braves doubling down with a Michael Soroka reunion. His strikeout and walk numbers this season with the Diamondbacks were the best of his career, and he’ll be just 29 next season as well. Maybe it’s the nostalgia in me, but at this price point, there’s not much that could go wrong.

By doubling down on starting pitching, the Braves wouldn’t have to force anything with Didier Fuentes. They rightfully want to see what he can do in the rotation, but for his arm’s sake, it’s best to ease him into that role next season. He’s not someone they should expect 150-plus innings from right away.

The only other free agent I predict the Braves signing is Mauricio Dubon. At the numbers I’ve seen him projected at, I don’t see why Atlanta would let him walk. He’s the best shortstop available on the open market by far, and because he can play everywhere defensively, he doesn’t stop the Braves from pursuing a bigger upgrade at the position. If all it’s going to take is $20 million over two years, that deal should be signed today.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

The #Braves today claimed LHP Mitchell Parker off waivers from the Washington Nationals.

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) November 2, 2026

Across three seasons, Parker has pitched 355.1 innings with a 5.19 ERA. Just 39.2 of those came this year, largely because he was wildly ineffective — a 6.58 ERA and a 66 ERA+ (34% below league average).

The surface-level numbers are less than encouraging. The stuff doesn’t jump off the page either, headlined by a low-90s fastball, and to complicate things further, Parker underwent InternalBrace surgery that will likely cost him most of the 2027 season.

Parker is arbitration-eligible this year, projected to earn around $1 million. There’s a strong chance he’s non-tendered, and even if he isn’t, it’ll be a long road before he makes an appearance for the Braves.

But he does come with options and several years of team control, and this is an organization that’s had a lot of success with reclamation projects. The path to sticking in Major League Baseball is rarely linear, and sometimes it comes down to finding the right home. The Braves have been exactly that for a lot of arms over the years.

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Photo: IMAGO / NurPhoto

This begins a series of trade targets for the Atlanta Braves by position of need, starting with the rotation — which should be where Alex Anthopoulos focuses most this offseason.

Mariners Starting Pitchers

It was floated at the trade deadline that the Mariners could be open to moving starting pitching in exchange for more offense. That didn’t come to fruition, but those talks should pick up even more aggressively this offseason after a disappointing finish to the 2026 campaign.

I don’t imagine Seattle will have any interest in moving Kade Anderson, one of the brightest young pitchers in the game, but everyone else should be on the table: George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo.

Any one of them would be a massive upgrade to the Braves’ rotation, but the trade fit between the two sides is wonky. I don’t see Atlanta being all that interested in dealing players off its major-league roster, unless Seattle has interest in the likes of Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, or Austin Riley. Maybe there’s something that could work, but trades between two teams both trying to compete are always tougher to pull off.

Jacob deGrom

By now, we all know what happened between the Braves and Rangers at the trade deadline. The two sides had a deal in place, but deGrom invoked his no-trade clause to stay in Texas, saying he signed his contract for a reason and wants to bring a championship to the Rangers.

It’s very possible deGrom’s stance hasn’t changed, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if he simply wanted to wait until the offseason to see what else is out there. deGrom will be 39 next season, is owed $37 million in 2027, and posted a 4.20 ERA. However, his 3.11 FIP and 11.1 strikeouts per nine suggest he still has plenty left in the tank. I’d imagine the Braves give it another shot this offseason to see if he’s had a change of heart.

MacKenzie Gore

Gore was a really exciting trade prospect a year ago and was eventually moved to the Rangers. But the breakout Texas was hoping for never followed; he finished the 2026 campaign with a career-worst 4.58 ERA over 34 starts.

If the Rangers end up committing to a rebuild, Gore could be on the way out as well, given he’s entering the final year of his contract. At around $8-10 million (arbitration estimate), he doesn’t have to be a frontline starter to live up to that price, and he still comes with enough tantalizing upside to fetch Texas a couple of quality prospects. It would be fun to see what he could do working alongside Braves pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, who proved to be an elite addition to Walt Weiss’ staff in year one.

Reid Detmers

Detmers was one of the hottest names floated at this year’s trade deadline, but the Angels ultimately decided not to rush into anything. That should change this offseason, with Los Angeles coming to terms with a lengthy rebuild.

He’ll be 27 next season, comes with multiple years of team control, features elite stuff, and is coming off the best season of his career — a 3.36 ERA over 32 starts. The market will be full of suitors if the Angels are finally ready to move him.

Drew Rasmussen

When healthy, Rasmussen is one of the more consistently dominant pitchers in baseball, and he’s actually stayed healthy over the last two seasons, posting a 2.71 ERA over 61 starts. The Rays would ideally like to hold onto him, but we’ve seen this story a million times before.

He has a $20 million club option for next year, which Tampa Bay will certainly pick up. But he’ll be 31 next season, and the odds of the Rays handing a pitcher that age — with a significant injury history — a massive long-term deal feel slim. That would make Rasmussen the single best pitcher who could get traded this offseason.

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Stefanski: Ebukam and Branch have hamstring injuries. They will be out this game. #Falcons

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) November 2, 2026

The good news: James Pearce Jr. will be. The star pass rusher’s suspension has officially been lifted by the league.

#Falcons EDGE James Pearce Jr.’s suspension has officially been lifted by the league today.

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) November 2, 2026

Even without Pearce, the Falcons have been among the best teams in the league at generating pressure all season. The hope is his presence can turn more of that pressure into sacks. Atlanta finished second in the league in sacks a year ago, bringing down the quarterback a franchise-record 57 times. Through eight games this season, they have 18 — still a respectable figure, but one Pearce should help pad almost immediately.

The Falcons also made a couple of roster moves, releasing defensive end Drake Jackson and linebacker Jared Ivey.

The #Falcons have released DE Drake Jackson and LB Jared Ivey, per the team.

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) November 2, 2026

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Tampa Bay didn’t complete a single pass. They attempted just three all game — and still won by 16, most of it off turnovers from Michael Penix Jr., who turned in by far the worst game of his still-young career.

That’s where the finger-pointing is going to start, and it’s hard to argue with the stat line. Penix completed just 8 of 24 of his passes for no touchdowns and four interceptions. His 12.0 passer rating was the worst by any quarterback this season — and keep in mind, the Falcons were forced to start Cooper Rush for two games.

The decision-making from Penix was dreadful, easily the worst we’ve seen from him to this point. But it’s not fair to pin it all on his shoulders. Doing that leaves out some important context.

This game was played in a legitimate monsoon. One team recognized that and adjusted — which is why the Bucs threw it just three times. The other kept chucking it into the rain with nothing to show for it.

That’s on Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees. They knew all week this game could be played in heavy rain, and come Sunday, it was obvious early this wasn’t going to be a normal NFL contest. The focus needed to be on protecting the football, knowing both teams were going to struggle to score. Instead, they kept putting their young quarterback in position to fail.

The Falcons’ staff got out-coached by Todd Bowles and company in a game with major playoff implications — not a great sign for anyone hoping Stefanski would be a massive upgrade over Arthur Smith and Raheem Morris. These are the exact kind of no-shows in big divisional games that got those guys fired, and eight games into the Stefanski era, not enough has changed.

But I still don’t think the coaching was the most disappointing part of Sunday’s debacle. That belongs to the sheer lack of physicality from the entire team in a game with so much hanging in the balance.

Not even a month ago, the Falcons defense ranked first in rushing yards allowed and the offense ranked second in rushing. If there was one thing we thought this team could hang its hat on, it was the ability to compete and often dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

That’s been exposed over the last several weeks, and never more than against the Bucs, who imposed their will on Atlanta for 60 straight minutes. Tampa Bay carried it 56 times and averaged nearly 6.0 yards a pop for 324 yards on the ground. The Falcons didn’t even crack 100.

In a game that would have put Atlanta in the driver’s seat for the NFC South, they got beaten to a pulp until they no longer wanted to compete. It’s a story we’ve seen year after year with this team every time it has a chance to change the narrative. The Falcons left Raymond James Stadium broken in half, and while there’s plenty of season left to put themselves back together, Sunday made it awfully hard to believe they have the right people in the building to pull it off.

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“Dana Brown is joining the Atlanta Braves as a senior advisor to the amateur scouting department, reuniting with president and general manager Alex Anthopoulos, a league source confirmed to The Athletic. The source spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a personnel move that had not been finalized.”

Brown previously served with the Braves from 2019 to 2022, helping them to a World Series while being credited with finding a number of Atlanta’s current and former stars, including Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, and Tyler Matzek.

“I remember Dana telling me he was a top-five high-school bat in the draft — he wrote it in his report as well — and that we had to take him,” Alex Anthopoulos said. “He wasn’t highly touted at all and Dana wanted to take him in the third round. I remember asking him if he was sure we needed to take him that high and he was adamant.

“He did the same thing with Spencer Strider (the Braves’ fourth-round pick) in 2020. I’ve been with him a long time and when he’s that convicted I stay out of the way. One other time he pounded for us to sign a player was Tyler Matzek when he was in Indy ball. It was August (2019), minor league season was about to be over and he wouldn’t let it go so we signed him to a two-year minor-league contract. Dana doesn’t bat 1.000, no one does but when he’s passionate about something, I’ve learned the smart move is to listen.”

Brown and Anthopoulos have had a working relationship for over 20 years across three organizations, so when it was announced that Brown and the Astros mutually agreed to part ways during the season, a reunion felt like a logical landing spot. This is a massive addition to the Braves’ front office.

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With the Panthers also losing to the Packers on Thursday, Atlanta might not have lost any ground in the division. But it missed a chance to knock Tampa Bay essentially out of the race, and now it’s anybody’s ballgame with half a season left to play.

According to the oddsmakers, the Bucs are now slight favorites to win the division.

NFC South Odds (Via ESPN)

• Tampa Bay Bucs (+184)
• Carolina Panthers (+200)
• Atlanta Falcons (+265)
• New Orleans Saints (+660)

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Sunday’s loss was the kind of performance that makes you question everything about where the Falcons are headed. A week ago, Michael Penix Jr. was the player of the week and Atlanta handed the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season.

Then Penix followed it up with four interceptions against just eight completions. Kevin Stefanski looked completely outmatched by Todd Bowles, and Atlanta was dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage in a divisional game that should have had all of its focus.

The Falcons didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as the Bucs, yet the odds reflect what is still very much a live three-way race — one set to have plenty more twists and turns along the way. That’s the nature of the NFL, but Atlanta’s biggest issue may be the path in front of them.

The Falcons travel to Madrid this week to take on the Bengals, then face the Chiefs at home before their bye. After the bye come matchups with the Vikings and Lions. If they can avoid a complete implosion over the next month or so, the schedule is pretty gettable down the stretch, featuring three divisional games along with meetings against the Commanders and Browns.

It’s doable, but you have to think the Falcons need to muster a couple of upsets over the next month. The good news: that’s been one of their specialties over the last several years. They love surprising the world when nobody’s expecting it.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

• Randy Arozarena
• Jake Bauers
• David Bednar
• Ryan Jeffers
• Adrián Morejón
• Trevor Rogers
• Seiya Suzuki
• Brandon Lowe

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Teams can extend a qualifying offer to a free agent as long as he spent the entire last season with the club and hasn’t previously received one — which is why you don’t see Tarik Skubal on this list. The player can accept or decline, and in most cases, he declines and enters free agency.

If a player who received a qualifying offer signs with another team, his previous club is entitled to draft compensation — and that’s what this article is all about. A lot of clubs are wary of signing free agents who turned down qualifying offers for that very reason, the Braves included. Atlanta would have to forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft picks, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money, to sign any of these players.

That’s a stiff penalty, so which players on this list would actually be worth it? Of the eight, six play positions of need for the Braves.

Jake Bauers

Bauers is the most shocking name of the bunch, cashing in on his breakout campaign and tremendous postseason run. But I don’t see many teams surrendering draft compensation on top of a lucrative contract for a player with just one year of production who will be 31 next season — the Braves least of all.

Not Worth It

David Bednar and Adrián Morejón

Even if they don’t re-sign Raisel Iglesias, the Braves already have a really expensive bullpen. They likely aren’t shopping at the top of the reliever market, especially for arms that come with added draft compensation.

Not Worth It

Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki

Arozarena and Suzuki are a different story — the Braves should have real interest in both. They’re All-Star-caliber outfielders who could fill the massive void that currently exists in left field.

The problem is the combination of their age, projected contract, and the draft compensation, which together make it hard to imagine Atlanta seriously considering either. Both will be 32 next season and are likely in line for multi-year deals in the $100 million range. That alone is a massive commitment for a player who’ll be well into his mid-30s by the time the deal ends. Add in the qualifying-offer penalties, and there’s just not much value to be had.

Not Worth It

Trevor Rogers

Surprisingly, Trevor Rogers is the only starting pitcher on this list, and he’s the only candidate I deem worth the draft compensation. He’s arguably the best rotation arm available outside of Tarik Skubal and has upside few free agent starting pitchers in this class can match.

Contract projections around the industry have Rogers landing a four- or five-year deal worth around $100 million. That’s far from a ridiculous price for someone who has been a legitimate frontline starter at his best. If the Braves believe Rogers has ace potential, he’s a player I could see them going after despite the qualifying offer.

Worth It

Atlanta would welcome all three back with open arms, but as is always the case, it’s going to come down to dollars and cents. Here’s what ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects each of them to earn in free agency.

Tyler Mahle: 3 Years, $49.5 million

Mahle is one of the most interesting free agents in the entire class because of the stark contrast in his performance after he joined the Braves at the trade deadline. Before the move, he posted a 5.13 ERA with the Giants. In Atlanta, he recorded a 1.99 ERA over nine starts, then followed it up with two more brilliant performances in the postseason.

A big reason for the turnaround was an adjustment the Braves made with him: Mahle leaned on his splitter more than he ever had in his career.

“I closely covered Mahle’s spiking splitter usage in the playoffs for the Braves, putting up the top two games of splitter usage in the playoffs (Statcast era), with Gausman taking up most of the other spots just behind him,” McDaniel writes. “This trend started after the Braves traded for him at the deadline, with his usage going from 25% before the trade to 39% afterward, then shooting up more in the postseason. Mahle also posted his highest innings total since 2021, throwing 149 innings in the regular season.”

Some teams are going to scoff at offering Mahle a multi-year deal worth $50-plus million because of the small sample size in Atlanta. The Braves could even be one of those hesitant clubs. But the good news for Mahle is he only needs one team to believe he’s worth it, and with the way he performed in October, it’s fair to assume he made himself a lot of money.

Mauricio Dubon: 2 Years, $16 million

This appears to be what most contract projections have Dubon fetching in free agency, and if that’s the number, the Braves are probably going to be more than willing to pay it.

The question, though: with the market for shortstops extraordinarily thin, could there be a team out there willing to go three-plus years? Dubon is hitting free agency at the perfect time, which could lead to a scenario where he’s playing elsewhere next season and beyond.

Raisel Iglesias: 1 Year, $14 million

After earning $16 million on a one-year deal last offseason, most projections have Iglesias settling for something similar this time around. It’s a pretty fair assumption after a season in which he posted a 2.55 ERA and 34 saves, but he’s not a dominant closer, and he’ll be 37 in 2027. This will be a difficult decision for the Braves, who have a lot of holes to fill and might already have a better closer under contract in Robert Suarez.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

The Falcons announced today that Ebukam has been placed on Injured Reserve. They also signed defensive end Drake Jackson to the practice squad and released offensive lineman Colby Sorsdal.

The #Falcons have placed DE Samson Ebukam (hamstring) on IR. They have signed DE Drake Jackson to the practice squad and also released OL Colby Sorsdal from the practice squad.

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) November 3, 2026

Ebukam had a decent start to his first season with the Falcons, recording 11 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and nine quarterback hits. He initially suffered the hamstring injury back in Week 2, and it never quite healed properly as he tried to fight through it. Now Atlanta is left even thinner along the defensive line — a part of the team that’s been exposed in recent weeks, with the Buccaneers running for over 300 yards this past Sunday.

The addition of James Pearce Jr. will help moving forward. He was removed from the suspension list and is expected to play against the Bengals, but Pearce is much more of a factor rushing the passer than he is against the run. Atlanta has really started to feel the effects of losing Jalon Walker, who is out for the entire season after tearing his ACL during training camp.

If the Falcons can’t find a way to fix those issues, it’s hard to see how they break their postseason drought — even in a division that’s completely up for grabs with more than half the season left to play.

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His completion percentage has risen seven points under Tommy Rees, sitting at 66.7% for the season. That’s a top-10 mark in the league, tied with Josh Allen and right around quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy — pretty good company to keep.

Penix also ranks top 10 in QBR, and his 109.1 passer rating is good for fourth in the league among quarterbacks with at least five starts this season.

But perhaps the most impressive stat of all: Penix has thrown just one interception all season, which, ironically, came on his first drive back from a torn ACL. He almost never puts the ball in harm’s way, with an interception-worthy throw rate of just 2% — the eighth-best mark in the entire league.

Pick a metric, go to the top 10, and you’ll probably find Michael Penix Jr. That’s how good he’s been through his first five starts in 2026, and it’s why the Falcons are 3-2 when he starts — a record that should be 4-1 if not for the collapse against the Ravens.

Are there flaws in Penix’s game? Absolutely. There are some throws — easy completions in critical situations — he has to make more consistently. But those kinds of flaws are the fixable kind. It would be far more worrying if he couldn’t help but throw a meatball over the middle at least once a game.

It’s also important to add context to what Penix has done through five games. This is a young man coming off a torn ACL and learning an entirely new offense for the first time. That’s not an easy situation for any quarterback to navigate, let alone someone who entered the year with less than a season’s worth of starts under his belt.

The sample size remains too small to crown Penix just yet, and the injury concerns aren’t going away anytime soon. That will always be the biggest hurdle he has to clear. But with each passing performance, he’s proving he can be the Falcons’ long-term answer at quarterback — as long as he can stay on the field.

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“Though the Marlins aren’t believed to be shopping Lopez or Edwards, neither player is considered untouchable. If a team is willing to offer a lot in return, Miami would listen.”

Lopez is a player who could be filed under “dream trade candidate” for the Atlanta Braves, who have been searching for answers at shortstop every offseason for the last half-decade. He’s elite defensively, with 14 outs above average and six defensive runs saved, and he just finished the best offensive campaign of his career, hitting .305 with a league-leading 191 hits.

Lopez isn’t much of a power threat. He hit only 11 home runs this season and has 32 for his career, but his profile as a guy who hits for average and doesn’t load the box score with strikeouts should be especially appealing for the Braves.

This is an organization that needs a philosophy change offensively. They’ve been far too reliant on the long ball, and every postseason they’re left wondering why they can’t score runs consistently against the league’s best pitchers. If the Braves aren’t willing to take a long, hard look in the mirror this offseason, nothing is going to change.

Of course, as Jackson points out in his report, the Marlins aren’t going to do anything unless they come away with a king’s ransom. They weren’t far off from playoff contention this year and should be perfectly fine holding onto Lopez, who still has three years of team control remaining.

Miami likely won’t be thrilled about trading him within the division, but it should be noted that hasn’t stopped them before — they’ve pulled off blockbuster trades with the Phillies twice, sending J.T. Realmuto and Jesus Luzardo to Philadelphia. If the Braves are willing to part with their best prospects, they should at least be able to get the conversation started.

Lopez is one of several high-profile shortstops who will be floated in trade rumors this offseason. Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report recently linked the Braves to Zach Neto of the Angels. Corey Seager is another name worth watching this winter, along with the Astros’ Jeremy Peña.

The market for shortstops in free agency is almost non-existent. If the Braves are going to find an answer, it’s going to have to come via trade — and this could be the perfect offseason to fill one of their longest-standing holes.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

I understand that feeling. I’ve lived it right alongside every one of you. But I’m not sure how anybody can look at what’s transpired through the first seven weeks and not be excited about the trajectory of this organization under new leadership.

The Development of Michael Penix Jr.

You can’t win without good quarterback play in this league, and it’s what’s held the Falcons back ever since the team traded Matt Ryan to the Colts. There were once again tons of questions surrounding the position entering the season, and while not all of them have been answered, Penix has looked every bit a franchise quarterback since returning from an ACL injury.

Atlanta is now 3-2 in games he’s started, and that record very easily could be 4-1 had he not gotten hurt on the final drive of regulation against the Ravens. Penix is completing just under 67% of his passes this season — seven points higher than he came into it — and his QBR ranks ninth in the league. He’s boasting a 109.2 passer rating, tossing nine touchdowns to just one interception.

The questions about Penix’s ability to stay healthy aren’t going away anytime soon, but strictly based on what we’ve seen on the field, he’s performing like a franchise quarterback. This is a guy who has only a season’s worth of starts under his belt, is coming off a season-ending injury, and is just five games into a completely new offensive system. There’s a good chance this is only the tip of the iceberg for his development — making this the closest the Falcons have been to getting the position right in eight years.

A Stellar Rookie Class

Consistent winners are built through the draft, and the new regime in Atlanta was operating short-handed without a first-round pick. Still, it looks to have landed four big-time contributors.

Avieon Terrell has started in the secondary every game he’s been healthy. Kendal Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr. have immediately become game-changers at the second level of the defense, and Zachariah Branch has flashed his explosiveness in the third phase. All of these guys look like they’ll contribute in Atlanta for a long time, and three of them were taken in the third round or later. That’s a tremendous job of identifying talent, and it should give everyone a lot of confidence in this new regime.

An A+++ Offseason

The rookie class is a part of it, but if that’s not enough to convince you Ian Cunningham and Matt Ryan can figure this thing out, the trades and free agent pickups this offseason should put any questions to bed.

Maason Smith and Gervon Dexter Sr. were home-run acquisitions via trade. They’ve completely revamped the interior of the Falcons’ defensive line with two big swings, giving Atlanta a tantalizing front to build around, especially once James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker return.

But Cunningham and Ryan also proved they don’t need a bunch of money to find impact pieces. Za’Darius Smith was added late in the offseason following the injury to Jalon Walker and already has 4.5 sacks in just six games. Cam Thomas was signed to a one-year deal worth just over $3 million and has pitched in a couple of sacks, and Samson Ebukam signed a similar deal while recording 2.5 of his own.

This is an edge group that looked rather hopeless. The Falcons lost Pearce and Walker before the season started, and they barely had any money to spend. Ryan and Cunningham had to find some diamonds in the rough for this to work, and they nailed every addition. Now imagine what they could do next offseason with a lot more cash in their pockets.

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I covered shortstops last week. Mauricio Dubon is really the only free agent who should be considered starting-caliber, so if the Braves want an upgrade there, they’ll have to find a trade. The outfield class isn’t as thin, but it’s going to cost a lot of money to land an impact bat.

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena is arguably the best outfielder set to test the open market. He’s coming off back-to-back All-Star campaigns, with 2026 the best season of his career, hitting 26 home runs with an .865 OPS. He’s also shown a knack for big hits come October, with 12 long balls in just 45 postseason games to go along with a .946 OPS.

That’s exactly the kind of bat the Braves need to add, but in this market, Arozarena is going to have suitors lined up to pay him. It’s likely going to take a contract north of $100 million to land him, and the Braves are typically hesitant to hand that kind of money to players approaching their mid-30s.

The fit exists. I’m just not sure Anthopoulos makes an exception for Arozarena.

Seiya Suzuki

If Anthopoulos is unwilling to budge on paying 32-year-old free agents, Suzuki isn’t going to be his cup of tea either. He’s done nothing but mash since coming over from Japan, posting an .823 OPS across five seasons with the Chicago Cubs — and like Arozarena, he’s coming off a career-best campaign.

He’s likely in line for a very similar deal, and given he’s slightly older than Arozarena, that might take him off the Braves’ board as well.

Jake Bauers

One of the heroes of the Brewers’ World Series run, Bauers entered this season with -1.3 WAR to his name. Then he hit 26 homers with an .874 OPS over 144 regular season games before taking home NLCS MVP honors in Milwaukee’s triumph over the two-time defending champions.

Bauers is a year younger than Arozarena and Suzuki, and the fact that he has just one year of production under his belt should make him much more affordable. But I have a feeling he’s going to be very tough to pry away from Milwaukee, which, while not a big spender, would love to keep the core of its team together.

Ian Happ

One of the most consistent presences of the last decade, all Happ does is show up every season, post an OPS around .800, and win a Gold Glove. His numbers were down a little this season — .218 with 24 homers and a .738 OPS — but he’s still a really solid veteran who would be a considerable upgrade over what the Braves have continually trotted out in left field over the last four seasons. He should also be much more affordable than Arozarena and Suzuki, though he’ll require a multi-year deal.

Taylor Ward

After the top four, there’s a significant drop-off. Ward is coming off a down year in which he hit .225 with seven home runs and a .670 OPS, but he’s just a year removed from hitting 36 home runs with the Angels and owns a career .798 OPS against left-handed pitching.

In a perfect world, the Braves would really invest in the position. It’s one of the few areas where they can meaningfully bolster the offense. But Mike Yastrzemski is still under contract, so it’s more than possible they settle on a platoon option to pair with him.

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But they find themselves just a half-game out of first place in the NFC South, and since Michael Penix Jr. returned under center, they’re 3-2 with road wins over the Packers and Saints and a home win over the formerly undefeated 49ers.

Atlanta’s defensive front has been menacing since Week 1, among the best in the league at getting after the quarterback. And it’s set to get star pass rusher James Pearce Jr. back in a couple of weeks from his eight-game suspension. That could have this side of the ball looking really scary, paired with an offense that has made massive strides thanks to the development of Michael Penix Jr.

Go to any stat category for quarterbacks and you’ll find Penix somewhere in the top 10. He has nine touchdowns to just one interception, ranks ninth in the league in completion percentage, ninth in QBR, and fourth in passer rating. That’s a franchise quarterback, one who seems to be improving with each passing start in a new offense under Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees.

This is a team that should feel like it has a golden opportunity to win the NFC South and snap a postseason drought that’s lasted since the 2017 season. But that still doesn’t mean the Falcons should be buyers at this year’s trade deadline.

So far, this season has far more positive storylines than negative ones — something that hasn’t been true in over a half-decade. The coaching staff has clearly been upgraded, with Rees and Stefanski helping Penix establish himself as a legitimate threat at the position. Just as encouraging, Matt Ryan and Ian Cunningham seem to have pulled all the right strings from a personnel standpoint this offseason, even while working at a serious disadvantage.

The draft class is looking like a home run. The Falcons didn’t have a first-round pick and had just six selections in total, yet they came away with four immediate contributors. In free agency, Jahan Dotson, Za’Darius Smith, Samson Ebukam, Brian Robinson Jr., and Cam Thomas all required very little investment yet have made major impacts, while the trades for Gervon Dexter Sr. and Maason Smith have completely revitalized the interior of the defensive line, giving the Falcons something to build around moving forward.

Even with all of those additions, though, this is not yet a championship-caliber football team. There’s no reason to give away future picks in a season where a Super Bowl is nothing more than a pipe dream. That’s what bad organizations do — the exact habit this new regime is trying to break.

Next offseason, the Falcons will have a full allotment of draft picks along with an ungodly amount of cap space. Ryan and Cunningham will be able to completely overhaul the roster with top-tier talent. At that point, the Falcons should feel like they’re in a position to seriously compete, and mortgaging future picks might make sense.

For now, it’s best to just enjoy the ride of a team clearly heading in the right direction. This was always going to be a multi-year rebuild. Straying off course to chase a win this year isn’t something the Falcons should be looking to do as the trade deadline approaches.

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Here’s who the former general manager believes fits with the Braves.

Mauricio Dubon

Best Team Fits: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox

There are really only two directions the Braves can go to fill their shortstop void this offseason. If they choose the free agency route, it has to be Mauricio Dubon. He’s the only starting-caliber option testing the open market, and I imagine there’s a lot of interest on Atlanta’s side in re-signing him.

If the Braves are thinking bigger, though, there could be some marquee shortstops moved in trades this winter. The Marlins will reportedly listen on Otto Lopez, even if it’ll take a king’s ransom to get something done. Zach Neto will be floated in rumors often as the Angels enter a full rebuild. Corey Seager has been linked to the Braves in the past, and Jeremy Peña is another name to keep a close eye on.

If the Braves want to win a championship next season, acquiring one of those names via trade is their best option. But we just haven’t seen Alex Anthopoulos make many moves like that since he took over as general manager in Atlanta.

Randy Arozarena

Best Team Fits: Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds

Arozarena was Bowden’s fifth-ranked free agent in the class, and he’ll likely land a multi-year deal worth north of $100 million. The Braves desperately need to upgrade in left field, and Arozarena is coming off a career year in which he posted 5.7 WAR, mashing 26 homers with an .865 OPS. He’s also proven to be an elite performer come October, with 12 postseason home runs and a .946 OPS over 45 games.

That makes him an attractive target who would fit seamlessly into the Braves’ lineup, but the price tag probably makes a move like this unlikely. Arozarena will be 32 next season, and while he’s been elite over the last two years, the Braves are typically cautious about handing players in their 30s four- and five-year deals.

Raisel Iglesias

Best Team Fit: Atlanta Braves

Iglesias is another of the Braves’ own free agents, and a reunion is certainly plausible. He’s been among the top closers in the game for a long time, and Atlanta’s bullpen is already set to take a hit with Didier Fuentes expected to move back to the rotation. There will probably be mutual interest in a reunion, and if Iglesias can be had on a one-year deal worth around $10 million, I think it happens. If he’s looking for more than that, I could see the Braves pivoting to younger options.

Hiromi Itoh

Best Team Fits: Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves

The Braves haven’t dipped their toes into the Japanese market very often, but given the success so many of those players have had in recent years, Anthopoulos might want to rethink that strategy. Itoh has a small frame and isn’t going to overpower anyone with velocity. What he does have is a wide array of pitches and grips to keep hitters off balance, and he rarely issues a free pass.

Bowden projects just a two-year, $22 million contract for Itoh, and at that price, it’s hard to find a bad one.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Obviously, some of these names will be out of Atlanta’s price range, but I’ll cover the options by position group along with some notes on the deals that make a lot of sense for the Braves.

Starting Pitchers

• Tarik Skubal — $350-500 million
• Freddy Peralta — 5 years, $140 million
• Michael King — 4 years, $118 million
• Clay Holmes — 2 years, $44 million
• Nick Martinez — 2 years, $48 million
• Foster Griffin — 3 years, $67 million
• Trevor Rogers — 3 years, $64 million
• Casey Mize — 3 years, $54 million
• Kaima Taira — 3 years, $30 million
• Robbie Ray — 2 years, $45 million
• Shota Imanaga — 3 years, $69 million
• Kevin Gausman — 1 year, $22 million
• Shane Bieber — 1 year, $20 million
• Hiromi Itoh — 2 years, $20 million

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This is a super intriguing list of starting pitchers, which I’d call the strength of this year’s free agent class. That’s good news for the Braves, who probably need to add at least two this offseason with so much uncertainty surrounding the rotation.

Tarik Skubal would be a dream, but let’s nip that one in the bud real quick: not happening.

I’d file Freddy Peralta at that price under the same category. Michael King will probably be too pricey for the Braves’ liking as well, but everybody else is well within the realm of possibility.

Trevor Rogers at three years, $64 million would be an absolute steal. I think he’s the second-best starting pitcher in this entire free agent class.

Clay Holmes on a two-year deal is something that would probably interest the Braves, reuniting him with his former pitching coach, Jeremy Hefner.

A couple of arms I don’t think Alex Anthopoulos targets are Casey Mize and Robbie Ray. He could have had either one at the trade deadline and opted to pass, and given how they performed with their new teams, I don’t see the Braves turning around and paying them around $20 million a year for multiple seasons.

Kevin Gausman or Shane Bieber on a one-year deal is right up the Braves’ alley in terms of how they typically operate. But one name I was surprised not to see here is Tyler Mahle. He’s certainly a better option than a handful of names on this list — and one the Braves hope to retain this offseason.

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He went 2-for-4 for Tiburones de La Guaira of the Venezuelan Winter League and told reporters afterward he’s just there to get reps after missing all of last season.

It’s the first anyone has seen of Profar since the ban. Ronald Acuña Jr. said on his podcast that Profar essentially ghosted everyone in the organization after he left — which only hardens the case that he has no business sticking around.

The Braves owe Profar $15 million next season whether he plays or not, and that’s the one wrinkle keeping this from being completely open-and-shut — something Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged earlier this offseason.

“We’re going to have to sit and talk internally just across the board about the whole thing,” said Anthopoulos, via Jesus Cano of The Athletic. “It wasn’t productive (at the time of his suspension). There was no point at that moment in time because it wasn’t changing, right? He was gone for the year, and we had spring training to take care of. This is now the time to have those discussions.”

Atlanta is a club built around value, and strictly on that axis, cutting Profar doesn’t add up. Even a handful of useful moments in 2027 beats $15 million going completely to waste.

But this is also an organization that prides itself on culture, and keeping Profar around would send a brutal message to the teammates his cheating screwed over. The front office has to decide which matters more — and those conversations shouldn’t take long.

There’s no way the Braves can let Jurickson Profar stick around for another season. Money be damned. He cheated, lied about it, and left the organization holding the bag two years in a row. There’s no rectifying that. The $15 million is already gone — a sunk cost — and the sooner Atlanta treats it like one, the better.

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Photo: IMAGO / NurPhoto

On that list were Mauricio Dubon and Raisel Iglesias, both of whom the Braves should be very interested in bringing back at the right price.

Mauricio Dubon

Jim Bowden’s contract projection: 2 years, $16 million

Given the numbers Dubon has posted over his career, $16 million over two years is probably a fair-ish deal. But this game isn’t always about numbers — even if that’s what the analytics freaks would have you believe. Teams around the league are going to value Dubon’s ability to fill in with Gold Glove defense literally all over the diamond, along with his championship pedigree.

Also important to remember: there’s no better time for Dubon to hit free agency. He doesn’t have an ounce of competition at shortstop, so any team looking for an upgrade will be calling his agent first, which is going to lead to a bidding war of sorts.

I don’t expect it to get out of hand, but Dubon has averaged more than 2.0 WAR over the last four seasons and is a beloved clubhouse presence who’ll do whatever it takes to win. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get at least $20 million this offseason, maybe even closer to $30 million.

Raisel Iglesias

Jim Bowden’s contract projection: 1 year, $17 million

This projection is basically exactly what Iglesias signed for a year ago to stay with the Braves, bumping his salary by $1 million. Coming off the first All-Star appearance of his career in 2026, there very easily could be some teams interested at this price point.

Will the Braves be one of them? This feels like a situation where there’ll be mutual interest in Iglesias returning, but with Robert Suarez in the fold and Iglesias turning 37 next season, $17 million is a considerable commitment — even for just one year. I’m not saying the projection isn’t fair. I’d just be a little surprised if it were the Braves who signed him for that much.

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They’re 3-4, which doesn’t exactly scream “championship contender.” But they’re also just a half-game back of the Panthers for first place in the NFC South, 3-2 with Michael Penix Jr. under center, and set to get star pass rusher James Pearce Jr. back in a couple of weeks.

There’s certainly a case to be made for Atlanta to buy ahead of the deadline, but that’s not what this piece is about. Over at Fox Sports, they put together a list of trade candidates for all 32 NFL teams, and the name mentioned alongside the Falcons was cornerback Mike Hughes.

“Atlanta’s still in strong contention in the NFC South, so don’t expect the Falcons to deal core pieces away,” Greg Auman writes. “But trading Hughes for even a pick swap would clear a path for second-round rookie Aveion Terrell to step into a larger role. Terrell only has six tackles in his first five games, and Hughes is a reliable veteran who started 27 games over the last two years. Perhaps once A.J. Terrell is back from his groin injury, Atlanta will be comfortable dealing Hughes to get both brothers on the field together.”

Auman is right that the Falcons aren’t going to send out any meaningful pieces at this year’s deadline. This is an organization that knows it isn’t a championship contender just yet, but it also knows it hasn’t made the playoffs since the 2017 season — and it has a golden opportunity to change that this year. That’s not something they’re going to pass up.

That said, there won’t be many Falcons fans mourning the loss of Mike Hughes. He’s been BBQ chicken all season, and with C.J. Henderson stepping up, Hughes’ starting job is likely a thing of the past once the secondary is fully healthy.

I still find a trade like this unlikely, for a couple of reasons. For starters, the secondary hasn’t been 100% healthy for a single game this season, and as I like to say, cornerbacks are like pitchers in baseball: you can never have enough of them. Plus, are we sure Mike Hughes brings back much of anything in return? I highly doubt it, which means the Falcons are probably better off keeping him around for depth purposes.

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It would be shocking if there were no baseball played at all next season. The sport has too much momentum moving in a positive direction for that to be the outcome, but some missed games are on the table, and that would without question have a significant effect on free agency.

Still, these players have to sign somewhere, and the Braves have a ton of holes to address — none bigger than the rotation. Atlanta needs both a frontline starter to pair with Chris Sale and depth behind him. If they don’t come away with at least two new starting pitchers this offseason, it’ll be an underwhelming result, one Braves fans are unfortunately used to by now.

Here are some initial thoughts on the starting arms I covet from this year’s free agent class, keeping in mind the Braves are highly unlikely to be a serious landing spot for Tarik Skubal, even if there was interest at the trade deadline.

Trevor Rogers

Rogers is my favorite candidate on this entire list. His surface numbers this season won’t blow anybody away — a 4.03 ERA over 30 starts — but he has nasty stuff, producing a chase rate in the 92nd percentile, and he rarely hands out free passes.

What Rogers could be in Atlanta is much better represented by his 2025, when he piled up 5.3 WAR in just 18 starts. It would be fascinating to see what Jeremy Hefner could turn him into with the Braves.

Sonny Gray

This is probably the 50th time I’ve written about the Braves potentially acquiring Sonny Gray, whether via free agency or trade. They always seem to have interest, but it has yet to come to fruition.

Maybe that changes this offseason. Gray is expected to decline his $30 million mutual option with the Red Sox after another stellar campaign, one in which he recorded a league-leading 18 wins with a 2.72 ERA. That kind of production is going to cost a pretty penny, but Gray seems to find success everywhere he goes.

Clay Holmes

Holmes’ season was essentially cut in half after he was struck by a 111 mph line drive that broke his fibula. But he still made 18 starts between the Cubs and Mets, recording a terrific 3.23 ERA — and that comes after a 3.53 ERA in 2025, his first season starting since he was a rookie in 2018.

He isn’t going to blow opponents away with his stuff, but he keeps hitters off base and really seemed to find his footing with Jeremy Hefner — the Braves’ current pitching coach — while the two were together in New York last year. Starting pitching never comes cheap in free agency, but this is an affordable option the Braves should feel comfortable slotting into the middle of their rotation.

Tyler Mahle

Mahle is among the most intriguing free agents in this entire class because of how his 2026 played out. He gave the Giants next to nothing, posting a 5.13 ERA over 18 starts, but his 1.99 ERA with the Braves and his performances in the postseason are going to have plenty of teams interested.

Mahle has already made it clear he’d like to return to Atlanta, and the interest is surely mutual, but money talks, and the Braves have never been one to get into bidding wars for starting pitching in free agency.

This feels like a case that ultimately comes down to the length of the deal. If another team offers three or four years, my best guess is the Braves let him walk. If it’s a one- or two-year deal, I think he stays.

Michael Soroka

As a Braves fan, one of the better things to watch from afar has been Michael Soroka carving out a nice career for himself after all the injuries he dealt with in Atlanta. He’s coming off his best season since his Braves days, posting a 3.41 ERA and 3.19 FIP over 116 innings, which will likely lead to him opting out of his mutual option with the Diamondbacks and hitting free agency.

The nostalgia alone is enough to sell Braves Country, but even setting that aside, he’d be a tremendous addition to the middle of this rotation at a price point that shouldn’t be ridiculous.

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Unfortunately, finding five options is impossible. Hell, finding one is difficult. But I’ll highlight the few that make some semblance of sense if you squint hard enough.

If you missed my section on starting pitchers, follow the link below:

• 5 Free Agents The Braves Should Target: Starting Pitchers

JP Crawford

You should have a sense of just how rough this list is when JP Crawford is leading it off. I’m not even sure you can consider Crawford an everyday shortstop at this point. He was brutal defensively when asked to play the position last year and is overdue for a position change as he approaches his mid-30s.

On top of that, Crawford is coming off one of his worst offensive years as well, hitting .221 with a .687 OPS. This would have been a fun idea a few years ago, but there’s next to no chance the Braves sign him intending to start him at shortstop next season.

Former Braves

• Orlando Arcia
• Nicky Lopez
• Jorge Mateo
• Ha-Seong Kim

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The list of shortstop free agents is only about ten deep, and it’s basically a reunion of Braves castoffs looking for work. All of these guys started in Atlanta over the last three years, and we know damn well none of them are good enough to come back. Let’s move on.

Mauricio Dubon (Only Option)

Listen, I could write a couple of paragraphs on the possibility of Bo Bichette opting out and becoming an option in Atlanta. But the reality is he’s not really a shortstop anymore defensively, and he’s way out of the Braves’ price range. So even if Bichette does opt out of his deal with the Mets, it’s highly unlikely he’s on his way to Atlanta.

The only free agent option the Braves should be interested in is one of their own. Dubon was excellent defensively this past season when asked to play shortstop, and he offers more than enough at the plate to be a stopgap until the Braves deem one of their prospects ready to take over.

The problem? Every team that needs a shortstop is going to be eyeing Mauricio Dubon. His agent is going to be licking his chops this winter, because sometimes the most important factor in getting paid is the free agent class around you. In Dubon’s case, it’s essentially non-existent. That could make it very difficult for the Braves to retain him, leaving them in an all-too-familiar place at the position — throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks.

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Ronald Acuña Jr. has one for $17 million in 2027 and another for $17 million in 2028. It’s pretty much a guarantee both get picked up, barring something catastrophic. And while some fans would love to see the Braves field trade calls on the star right fielder after another disappointing postseason, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

This is still one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball, and he’s under control for two more seasons. The Braves’ best chance of getting back to the top of the mountain is with Acuña, and this isn’t a club interested in rebuilding. Maybe the conversation shifts next winter, but for now I don’t imagine there’s any traction there, even if several teams check in to gauge Atlanta’s interest.

Ozzie Albies’ situation is a different story, as Mark Polishuk points out for MLB Trade Rumors.

“Albies is a bit of a trickier case. He has an 89 wRC+ and a .242/.300/.385 slash line over 1785 PA since Opening Day 2024, with this uninspiring offense combining with so-so glovework to give him a total of 3.8 fWAR over the last three seasons.

“This recent track record notwithstanding, Albies’ salary is small enough that multiple teams would be interested if the Braves shopped him, and some suitors might feel he’d benefit from a change of scenery. Albies is slated for free agency next winter so the Braves could be interested in getting something before Albies leaves…”

The question isn’t really about the Braves picking up Albies’ $7 million option for next season. That much is a foregone conclusion. It’s about whether they’d consider trading him before he potentially walks in free agency next offseason.

While the Braves might be open to the idea, it’s hard to find a path that makes much sense.

Atlanta isn’t going to find a better second baseman for $7 million in free agency. Moving Albies would only open another hole that’s expensive to fill, and this isn’t an organization flush with cash — they already have a ton committed to the 2027 roster.

About the only way it makes sense is as a swap between two teams trying to compete. The Braves can only really move Albies if they fill one of their other glaring holes with a player already proven at the major-league level. Those kinds of trades are always tougher to pull off, and to dampen the scenario even further, I’m not sure the Braves believe Albies is completely cooked.

He was tremendous offensively over the first month of the season, and while those numbers plummeted the rest of the way, he still finished with 22 home runs and an OPS right around .700. That’s well worth $7 million even if he doesn’t improve at all.

The most encouraging signs, though, came during Atlanta’s postseason run. He was the Braves’ best player outside of Michael Harris II, recording six hits and five walks over 30 plate appearances, including two home runs and two doubles.

Albies will be 30 next season. It’s not like he’s pushing 40, he’s a fan favorite, and he’s on a dirt-cheap contract. The Braves would have to be blown away to move on from him — just like they would with Acuña.

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The Hawks weren’t a part of that, despite being pegged as an under-the-radar team lurking for the right opportunity to strike. Atlanta had the roster flexibility to do just about whatever it wanted, but instead the front office stayed the course with its young core and added on the margins in the form of Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins — who on opening night highlighted one of the things that makes this year’s Hawks team so intriguing.

The Hawks Depth Is Real

Look at Atlanta’s bench against the Knicks in the playoffs a season ago: Jonathan Kuminga and really not much else. Now it features two guys who played pivotal roles on an NBA championship team with the Oklahoma City Thunder a couple of years ago, with Dort and Wiggins combining for 24 points as a part of the Hawks’ second unit.

Jock Landale, who missed last year’s series with the Knicks due to injury, added 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting to go along with three assists and two rebounds. The Hawks used a nine-man rotation, with rookie eighth overall pick Kingston Flemings seeing the floor for 15 minutes as well. But even the guys we didn’t see — Dorian Finney-Smith, Zuby Ejiofor, Corey Kispert, and Asa Newell — all bring something to the table that will prove valuable over an 82-game season. That’s the kind of depth the Hawks haven’t had in a very long time.

Don’t Forget About Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Sometimes players win Most Improved Player and then fall off a cliff, never to be heard from again. Nickeil Alexander-Walker put everyone on notice from the jump that won’t be the case for him. He was the best player on the floor for the Hawks on opening night, knocking down five of his eight threes and finishing with 31 points — including back-to-back threes in the final 90 seconds that essentially put the game on ice.

Is it possible we see another step forward from him in year two with the Hawks? That’s the kind of development that would have this team’s outlook looking much different later in the season.

Rookies Play Sparingly

The Hawks added two first-round picks this offseason in Kingston Flemings and Zuby Ejiofor, who combined to play just 15 minutes and scored a whopping zero points. Ejiofor didn’t even see the floor, and Flemings finished 0-for-5 from the field.

It’s fair to say their impact was underwhelming, but this is a playoff-caliber team with a ton of depth. Both will have to earn their minutes, and it takes time to adjust at this level — just look at the career arc of Trae Young, who struggled early in his rookie season before blossoming into one of the best point guards in the game.

Luckily for these two, the Hawks don’t need them to carry the load. They’ll ease their way into things, and hopefully by midseason both are playing pivotal roles on a team with aspirations of being a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

As we enter Week 8, there are plenty of overrated and underrated teams in the market, along with some strong situational angles to attack. I have four Best Bets this week and a few leans, so let’s get into it.

Locks: 17-8-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 25-21

Column overall: 42-29-1

North Texas -1.5 @ Navy

My best bet this week is North Texas. I don’t show a ton of value with my ratings — I project North Texas -3 — but laying less than a field goal is good enough for me here.

I love this matchup for North Texas. I’ve faded Navy’s secondary quite a bit this season, and like I thought in the offseason, this defense just isn’t up to standard. Navy gave up 38 points to both FAU and UTSA, two high-powered offenses that attack through the air, and now the Midshipmen have to deal with another one in North Texas.

Neal Brown has done a great job rebuilding a Mean Green program that was left for dead after Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State and took all of the roster with him. North Texas is averaging 42 points per game, and QB Tayven Jackson has been fantastic through the air, averaging more than 300 passing yards per game, third nationally.

They should see very little resistance from a Navy secondary that grades near the bottom of the country in pass defense and ranks #131 nationally in explosiveness allowed. That is a major problem against an offense built to create explosive plays through the air.

North Texas also grades very well in havoc prevention offensively, which should give Jackson a clean pocket and plenty of time to throw. This passing attack has been efficient enough that the Mean Green rank #30 nationally in 3rd & 4th-down success. Even if Navy manages to force some third-and-long situations, UNT has enough explosiveness to rip off chunk plays and keep drives alive.

North Texas’ defense is fine, but it still leaves a lot to be desired. However, it grades out much better against the run than against the pass, which at least lines up reasonably well with what Navy wants to do offensively.

And with the Mean Green coming off a bye, I trust Neal Brown and DC Matt Powledge to find a way to slow this Navy offense down just enough for the offense to lead the way. Brown specifically said his defense has been working on Navy’s offensive concepts through the summer and fall camp, not just during the bye. In a conference that features option-heavy offenses from Navy, Army and now Rice, there is more emphasis than ever on AAC teams knowing how to defend this style.

While North Texas is rested, Navy is playing its fifth straight game and also comes in a little banged up at running back and tight end, thinning out both positions.

This should be a high-scoring game, and bookmakers agree with a total of 62.5. In that type of game, I trust North Texas’ offense much more than Navy’s. UNT is the more explosive team and can score quickly against a Navy defense that has been one of the worst in the country at preventing explosive plays. Navy is built to run the ball, sustain long drives and control possession. But if the Midshipmen get dragged into a shootout and are forced to play catch-up, I don’t trust them to score quickly enough to keep pace.

North Texas has been impressive this season with a brand new roster. The Mean Green were competitive in a Week 1 loss at Indiana, with their only other defeat coming on the road at Texas State. They are right in the middle of the AAC race, and a win here would go a long way toward getting them into the conference championship picture. This Navy team has taken too much of a step back this year, and I’m betting North Texas to outscore them on Saturday and win by more than a field goal.

Duke +2.5 @ Virginia

I’ve faded Duke two weeks in a row and won both times, but now I’m backing Manny Diaz’s Blue Devils as they head to Charlottesville to face a Virginia team that I don’t like the look of right now.

This will be Virginia’s seventh straight week playing, and I’d imagine there is some exhaustion setting in as we reach Week 8. UVA has made two long road trips in the last three weeks, traveling to Tallahassee and then to Dallas to face SMU. Now, after flying back from Dallas, UVA has to regroup for a short-week Friday night game.

When some people look at Virginia, they may still be thinking about that beatdown of NC State in Week Zero, but Tony Elliott’s team has looked completely different recently. As road favorites, Virginia managed only seven points in a blowout loss at Florida State. Then, as two-touchdown home favorites, the Cavaliers were lucky to escape Syracuse, who played most of the second half with its fourth-string quarterback because of a slew of injuries. Virginia still won by only three. And last week at SMU, this offense managed just 13 points. Even Elliott acknowledged that Virginia has struggled to find an offensive rhythm in recent weeks.

I’m not trusting this offense right now, especially on a short week against a good Duke defense. Virginia wants to run first, but Duke will make that difficult. The Blue Devils rank second in the ACC in total defense and allow only 92.5 rushing yards per game.

Virginia has looked much more vulnerable when it has been forced away from the run and has to rely on Beau Pribula to consistently make plays through the air. In a loss to West Virginia, the Cavaliers couldn’t keep pace once the game became more pass-heavy, and the same thing happened in the 38-7 loss at Florida State when Virginia fell behind and had to move away from its preferred run-first approach.

Duke is good enough defensively to hold Virginia’s running game in check, and if the Blue Devils can force Pribula into obvious passing situations, I don’t trust him to consistently beat this defense from the pocket.

There’s also a tempo element that favors Duke. Against SMU, Virginia had only around eight offensive possessions. Duke plays slowly, ranking #112 nationally in seconds per play, so another low-possession game could magnify every failed Virginia drive and make it even harder for the Cavaliers to create separation.

On the other side, Duke’s offense can take advantage of Virginia’s defensive weaknesses: stopping the run and preventing explosive plays. Duke has been very successful running the ball behind Nate Sheppard, who has played his way into the top tier of ACC running backs. I expect him to have another strong game against a Virginia defense that ranks near the bottom of the country in both rushing defense and rushing success allowed.

And if Virginia sells out to slow Sheppard, Duke QB Walker Eget is more than comfortable attacking through the air. Eget came from San Jose State, where he played in the Spartans’ “spread-and-shred” offense that was built around pushing the ball downfield. Virginia ranks bottom 20 in the country in preventing explosive plays, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Duke rip off some chunk gains, whether it comes from Eget’s arm or Sheppard’s legs.

Injuries are a concern for a Virginia secondary that is banged up. Starting corner Omillio Agard is out for the season, while key players Corey Costner, Brandyn Hillman and Ethan Minter are also out for this game.

The Blue Devils should be able to ride Sheppard and Eget to offensive success, while Virginia’s offense has looked sluggish for several weeks. Manny Diaz is an excellent defensive mind, and he already beat Tony Elliott last year in the ACC Championship Game. Add in the short week, Virginia’s recent travel, and a banged-up defense that may be running on fumes, and I think this is a very good spot for Duke.

My ratings project this game as a pick’em. I wish I could get +3, but I like the matchup enough to take the points with Duke, who will win outright in Charlottesville.

Minnesota +7 vs Iowa

I’ll take the full touchdown with Minnesota at home in the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry. I’ve been fading Iowa for most of the season, to varying degrees of success, and I continue to be lower on them than the market. My ratings make this Iowa -3, so I think the market is giving the Hawkeyes too much credit.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot. Both teams are off bye weeks, with Iowa ranked, coming off a convincing win over Washington and getting some playoff buzz. Meanwhile, Minnesota was embarrassed by Purdue before the bye and now returns home rested, and with revenge after losing this game 41-3 last season. Iowa is getting a lot of praise for its wins over Michigan and Washington, but let’s not forget Minnesota has also beaten both teams, and was much more convincing beating the Wolverines than Iowa was.

It’s a very low total sitting around 40.5, so laying a full touchdown on the road with Iowa’s offense is asking a lot. Minnesota probably won’t have much success trying to establish the run. The Gophers rank near the bottom of the country in rush success, while Iowa’s run defense is elite. But Minnesota’s offense is much more productive through the air than people may realize, averaging 236.5 passing yards per game, and that happens to be the weaker part of Iowa’s defense. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom nationally in preventing explosive passes, and even their own coverage has questioned whether the secondary can hold up when teams are forced to throw, like we saw in the Ohio State game.

On the other side, Iowa’s offense may have trouble exploiting Minnesota’s defensive weaknesses. The Gophers are excellent at creating havoc and have been good on third and fourth downs. The Hawkeyes rank #102 in rush success, so if Minnesota can eliminate the explosive runs and force Iowa to sustain long drives, that’s a major win for the Gophers defense.

That is exactly the type of game Minnesota is more comfortable playing. The Gophers have struggled against faster, more explosive offenses like Mississippi State and Purdue, but they have looked much better against slower, physical teams. We already saw them thrive in a similar spot earlier this season when they were a touchdown home underdog against Michigan and won outright.

I worry about Minnesota’s offensive line, which has been really poor and is a major reason the run game has struggled. If Iowa gets ahead early and makes the Gophers one-dimensional through the air–although that’s a Minnesota strength–the Hawkeyes can focus on the pass and turn up the pressure on Drake Lindsey to get in the backfield.

However, all the pressure is on Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are the ranked team, the road favorite and the team everyone is buying. Minnesota is the rested home underdog with revenge on its mind. I think these teams are much closer than the spread suggests, and I completely disagree with Vegas basically saying Iowa is nine or ten points better on a neutral field. No way. In a low-scoring rivalry game, I want the full touchdown with the Gophers, who will test overrated Iowa.

New Mexico -3.5 vs North Dakota State

I’ll lay the points with the Lobos in one of the biggest G6 games of the season. My ratings make this New Mexico -6, and I’m going to trust my number.

NDSU has roared into the FBS with plenty of early success, but it has come against a weak schedule. Wins over Jacksonville St, Sacramento St, Wyoming and Nevada are not the same caliber of opponent the Bison will see this weekend. When NDSU stepped up in class on the road at UNLV, the offense managed only seven points in a loss. Now the Bison make another long road trip, this time to roughly 5,100 feet of elevation in Albuquerque and what should be a strong home atmosphere.

New Mexico won 21-10 last week at Hawaii, a tough spot to play. Meanwhile, NDSU’s 31-17 win over Nevada was much more misleading. The Bison fell behind 11-0 before returning a missed field goal 100 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the first half, then added a 74-yard defensive PAT return. Those are two massive fluke plays that made the final look much more comfortable than the actual game, which was pretty evenly played.

This matchup features two of the best defenses in the country, but I give the edge to New Mexico. The Lobos rank #2 nationally in defensive success rate, and I think NDSU’s offense will have a difficult time consistently sustaining drives. NDSU’s defense is legitimate too, but over the course of the game I trust New Mexico’s offense more to create scoring opportunities.

Turnovers could also be huge. New Mexico has been elite at forcing turnovers and is the only team in the country with multiple takeaways in every game this season. NDSU has lived comfortably with a positive turnover margin, but now has to face the best takeaway defense in the country on the road in a hostile environment. In what should be a low-scoring game where every possession matters, one or two short fields could be the difference.

There are some concerns with this bet. The total is only around 41.5, so I don’t love laying more than a field goal. New Mexico is also without Jaxton Eck, its best defensive player and probably the best in the Mountain West. The Lobos looked fine without him last week at Hawaii, but NDSU presents a much tougher test.

One thing I do like is coach Jason Eck’s familiarity with the Bison. During his time at South Dakota State, Eck went 4-4 in eight Dakota Marker games against NDSU after the Jackrabbits had previously lost eight straight in the rivalry.

I’m a big fan of Jason Eck, who will be on to a Power 4 job very soon, and I still think NDSU is slightly overrated because of the schedule it has faced. This should be a grinder, but I trust New Mexico’s defense and home-field advantage. And with my power ratings showing value, I’m betting New Mexico at anything -4 or better.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Virginia Tech @ Clemson, under 49.5 — Clemson’s offense has struggled against better competition in 2026. Now they’ll get James Franklin and Brent Pry’s defense, which has been elite at forcing havoc and getting in the backfield. The Tigers have had two weeks to prepare though, after a Bye week and then beating FCS Charleston Southern. This defense should come out firing and I expect a cagey game in Death Valley.

Rutgers +17 @ Northwestern — The Wildcats have some real buzz to them right now, but this is a bad spot. After a bye week in Week 2, the Cats are playing 11 consecutive weeks. And now they’re off a highly emotional win over old coach Pat Fitzgerald, while also looking ahead to huge matchups against Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State. This is as close to a bye week as they’ll get the rest of the season. Rutgers has an offense that can score points, and that’s enough for me when betting a big underdog. Throw in the fact that NW is dealing with some key injuries on both sides of the ball — including three starters in the secondary and their best TE — and I think Rutgers can keep this close.

Southern Miss +11 vs Louisiana — Here’s some trash. I only project this around -5 for the Cajuns. Southern Miss has been competitive recently, while Louisiana is off a really misleading big win against Troy where they benefited from tons of turnover variance. The Golden Eagles can move it enough through the air to stick around here.

UCF +9.5 vs BYU — I had to grab this look ahead line for a spot I’ve had circled since the summer. BYU comes off their huge emotional win vs Notre Dame, and now has to fly to sunny, warm Orlando for a game against UCF, who’s off a bye week. The stats don’t say a lot of good things for UCF, but I imagine the slow tempo and physical defenses will rule this low-scoring game. I’m grabbing the points at anything above a touchdown.

Georgia Tech -4 vs Boston College — BC is riding high after a nice win against Pitt last weekend. But that game was at home, Pitt was on their backup QB, and BC had a bye week to prepare. Now the Eagles head to Atlanta to face what should be a much healthier Georgia Tech team looking to rebound after a competitive loss at Virginia Tech. Tech almost lost to BC last year and survived on a last-second field goal. That should have Brent Key’s attention, and for a team that only has one win so far against Power 4 competition, I think the Jackets will be locked in.

Central Michigan +2.5 vs Miami-Ohio — I have CMU favored here and will gladly fade Miami-OH on the road, who just haven’t looked very competent recently amidst some QB injuries. The Redhawks lost to Bowling Green, were lucky to win against UMass, and got a bunch of favorable bounces last week to beat Akron. This is the first time Chuck Martin is facing Matt Drinkall at CMU, who runs an option-style offense that can be hard to prepare for.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Two spots, though, have been problem areas year after year — shortstop and left field — and it’s imperative they find answers there, or it’s hard to imagine any result other than the one we just witnessed a few weeks ago against the Dodgers.

Of the two, shortstop is undoubtedly the tougher to fix. Mauricio Dubon is far and away the best free agent available at the position this offseason, and while the Braves would love to have him back, the competition for his services will be stiff — and it’s not as if he’d be an upgrade. Bringing Dubon back would only maintain the status quo, which isn’t going to get the Braves where they want to go.

If Alex Anthopoulos wants to add an impact player at shortstop, it will have to come via trade — which is why Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report is predicting the Braves swing big for Zach Neto.

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Atlanta Braves: A Trade for a Shortstop
Prime Target: Los Angeles’ Zach Neto (three years of arbitration eligibility, estimated at $9.8M in 2027)

If they manage to re-sign Mauricio Dubón, never mind. Atlanta’s primary trade block focus at that point would be adding a starting pitcher who might actually be able to stay healthy. As is, though, Jim Jarvis is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting shortstop gig on Opening Day, and he posted a .564 OPS before spending the final six weeks of the regular season at Triple-A Gwinnett. Dating back to July 2022, though, the Braves have made 13 trades with the Angels, and maybe they can go back to that well to snag Zach Neto.

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For years, it was impossible to predict which direction the Angels were heading. It was overwhelmingly evident they didn’t have the pieces to compete, yet they refused to trade away the good players they had and commit to a rebuild.

That appears to be changing under new leadership. They dealt away a slew of pieces at the trade deadline, and I’d expect that to continue this offseason, with Zach Neto being one who’s going to garner interest across the league.

Neto is everything the Braves have been looking for at shortstop. He’s a player who’ll give you 25 homers, 5-plus WAR, and a .770 OPS every season — someone the Braves would have to spend $200-plus million on in free agency.

Instead, they can get him for the next three seasons at a fraction of the price. The catch: the prospect capital it will take to acquire him will be monstrous.

The Braves have done a really good job rebuilding their farm system over the last couple of years, and they have several intriguing shortstop prospects in Tate Southisene, John Gil, and Alex Lodise. But none of them are even close to major-league ready, and the odds any one of them becomes even half the player Neto has become are minuscule. Hell, the odds any of them can even handle shortstop at the major-league level are pretty low, as we’ve seen recently with guys like Vaughn Grissom and Nacho Alvarez.

Neto is a needle-mover, a player who would have the Braves immediately looking like a championship contender again. You have to wonder how much longer this front office can keep kicking this glaring need down the road, hoping an answer appears out of thin air. One would like to think they’ve learned their lesson, but this is a stubborn group, led by Alex Anthopoulos, that isn’t too concerned with what the outside world believes.

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Photo: IMAGO / NurPhoto

I’m not sure what the NFL has against Atlanta, but the schedule-makers have put this team through the wringer to start the season. The Falcons just played the Ravens and Bears, two teams almost certainly headed to the playoffs. Now they get the undefeated San Francisco 49ers — and in fact, three of the next five teams on the schedule are currently undefeated. Sandwiched in between is a trip to Madrid to face Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Even after that stretch, it’s not as if a couple of cupcakes are waiting around the corner. The Falcons then face Detroit before heading on the road to play one of the league’s surprises in the 4-2 Browns — a highly emotional contest with Kevin Stefanski returning to face his former team.

Frankly, it would be a miracle if the Falcons came out of that stretch with a real shot at the playoffs. Which is unfortunate, because when you look at the totality of what’s transpired this season, there have actually been several really positive developments.

Michael Penix Jr. has shown signs of growth

For starters, Cooper Rush didn’t give this team a chance to win over the first two weeks. What happened in those games should basically be thrown out the window. This team with Michael Penix Jr. is 2-2. They beat the Packers and Saints on the road by more than 21 points, and they lost a pair of respectable one-score games to the Ravens and Bears.

Could the team — and Penix specifically — have been better over this four-week stretch? Absolutely.

The Ravens game in particular felt like one that got away, and it’s pretty evident to anyone who’s watched Penix this season what he needs to work on. When he’s not pressured, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the entire league. Under pressure, he’s no better than Cooper Rush.

Still, it’s important to remember this is his first four games back from a torn ACL in a completely new offense. Growing pains are expected, and even with them, he sits 13th in QBR, throwing six touchdowns to just one interception. That’s a massive step forward for a player who still doesn’t have a full season’s worth of starts under his belt.

A defensive line to build around

When Jalon Walker tore his ACL before the season started, combined with James Pearce Jr.’s eight-game suspension, the feeling from the outside was that the Falcons’ defensive front could revert to its old ways as one of the laughingstocks of the league.

That couldn’t be further from the truth. The moves the Falcons made across the board this offseason have proven brilliant, with Gervon Dexter Sr. and Brandon Dorlus instantly blossoming into one of the best defensive tackle duos in football.

Highest pressure rate among DI this season
(min 100 pass snaps)

Brandon Dorlus 14.0%
Gervon Dexter Sr 13.1%
Byron Murphy II 12.9%
Zach Allen 12.9%
Dexter Lawrence 12.8% pic.twitter.com/h1HdLexieq

— PFF (@PFF) October 22, 2026

Maason Smith has also proven to be an outstanding addition on the interior, giving Atlanta a young defensive core it can build around moving forward, especially once Walker and Pearce return.

Even without those guys, the Falcons rank fifth in pass-rush win rate and second in run-stuff win rate. There are still some holes on that side of the ball that must be addressed, but Atlanta will have a lot of money to do so in the offseason.

Games are won in the trenches, and at least on one side of the ball, the Falcons seem to have it figured out.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Shohei Ohtani is now the face of baseball. Yoshinobu Yamamoto already has a World Series MVP under his belt. Seiya Suzuki will be among the league’s most coveted free agents in this year’s class following five stellar seasons with the Cubs. Kodai Senga was an ace before injuries struck. And most recently, Munetaka Murakami helped turn the Chicago White Sox from a laughingstock into a playoff team in a single season, smacking 35 home runs.

Clubs that fail to do their due diligence on players posted from Japan aren’t ones serious about winning — and there are a couple set to come overseas this offseason who fit two of the Braves’ biggest needs.

Teruaki Sato

Slugging third baseman/outfielder Teruaki Sato could end up being the best offensive free agent signed this offseason. He’s fresh off winning the Triple Crown in Japan, hitting .306 with 39 home runs and 106 RBIs to go along with a .991 OPS. That comes after a season in which he mashed 40 home runs and posted a .924 OPS.

For comparison, in his last full season with the Yakult Swallows, Murakami hit 33 home runs with an .851 OPS. Seiya Suzuki hit 38 home runs with a 1.067 OPS before he left, so Sato’s numbers are very comparable to two players who recently made the switch to Major League Baseball and immediately contributed at an All-Star level.

Sato will be 28 next season, so slightly older than Suzuki and Murakami were when they joined MLB. Both of those guys signed very reasonable deals — Suzuki for five years, $85 million, and Murakami for two years, $34 million.

Unfortunately, the Braves — and any other team, for that matter — probably won’t be as lucky this time around. There’s clearly been a hesitancy around the league to throw gobs of cash at players from Japan, particularly ones whose value relies almost exclusively on offensive production. Otherwise, a player like Murakami would have easily signed for north of $100 million.

That fear of missing out should create quite the market for Sato this offseason, and it doesn’t hurt that the list of slugging bats set to test free agency is a very short one. Sato could easily command anywhere from $100-150 million, but if he hits anything like his countrymen, that figure could prove to be a bargain.

Hiromi Itoh

Itoh won the Sawamura Award — essentially the Japanese version of the Cy Young — in 2025, posting a 2.52 ERA over 27 starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and touches 96, but he makes up for it with elite control and a deep arsenal of pitches and grips to keep hitters off balance.

Obviously, in today’s game, where everything is about velocity, there are questions about how Itoh’s success will translate to Major League Baseball. He’s probably more of a mid-rotation arm than an ace, and some even believe he’s better suited for a relief role, where his velocity could tick up over shorter stints.

But whether he’s a starter or a reliever, Itoh should be on the Braves’ radar, because they need both. Atlanta really should be looking to add at least two arms to the rotation, and the bullpen could use just as much help. Raisel Iglesias is set to hit free agency, and the expectation is that the Braves will stretch Didier Fuentes out as a starter to begin next season. Those were Atlanta’s two most valuable relievers this year, and now they need to be replaced.

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Photo: IMAGO / AFLOSPORT

Not many people are giving Atlanta much of a chance, which is more than fair. Kyle Shanahan’s group has looked far and away like the best team in football, with a couple of really impressive wins already over the Rams and Seahawks.

But in this league — especially in the middle of the season — it’s often not about who you play, but when you play them.

This week could be a perfect example. The 49ers enter having played Monday night against the Washington Commanders, meaning they’ll be on a short week and traveling across the country. That’s a massive scheduling edge for the Falcons, who haven’t left home since a road game against the Saints on October 5th.

The 49ers are also dealing with a slew of injuries to key pieces. Mike Evans left Monday night’s game right before halftime with injuries to his ribs and Achilles. He isn’t practicing, and his absence was a big reason the Commanders were able to mount a second-half comeback.

Deebo Samuel also isn’t practicing after missing Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. On the other side of the ball, Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams — two key cogs of the 49ers’ defensive front — aren’t practicing either. Bosa hasn’t played since Week 2, though Shanahan is hopeful that changes this week.

This is how upsets in the NFL are created. Nobody is confusing the Falcons for the better team, but the entire 49ers roster is banged up, and they’re traveling across the country to play an early game for their body clocks on a short week. Atlanta has every reason to be motivated against one of the league’s best, and they should be desperate to avoid dropping another game in the standings.

Over the last several years, the Falcons have been the most unpredictable team in the NFL. They lose to the worst teams but typically show up against the best, beating the Bills and Rams on primetime just last season. This one has all the makings of another upset if Atlanta plays its A-game on Sunday.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Anytime a coach returns to his former home, there’s a little added fire in the bellies of his players — especially with a guy like Morris. He’s a player’s coach, somebody everybody loves playing for. Those guys are going to want to celebrate a win with him in style on the flight back across the country.

And it’s not as if the 49ers need extra motivation. San Francisco’s defense is among the most talented in the league, a stiff test for anyone even when they don’t bring their A-game. Add in the Morris factor — a coach who knows Michael Penix Jr.’s weaknesses as well as anyone — and you get a recipe for some tough sledding come Sunday.

There is one counterpoint to that surface-level read I want to propose, though: who doesn’t know Penix’s strengths and weaknesses at this point?

The book is out across the league. When Penix has a clean pocket, he’s as good as anyone in the game. When he’s under pressure, he’s Desmond Ridder lite. Figuring out Penix isn’t a calculus test at this stage of his career. Get him off his spot, make him uncomfortable, and you’re going to have success as a defensive coordinator against the Falcons.

According to Sharp Football Analysis, the 49ers are blitzing at a 27.4% rate this season — right around the middle of the pack. But I’d expect a sharp uptick in that number this week, especially if San Francisco has trouble getting home with four, which could be the case given Nick Bosa looks unlikely to play again.

That will be the game plan for every defensive coordinator that has to prepare for the Falcons offense, so I’m not sure if Morris’ inside advantage gives him much more of an edge over the rest of the league.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Caleb Williams suffered a mild hamstring injury against the Vikings in Week 2 and hasn’t played since, but that’s expected to change against the Falcons, according to Ian Rapoport.

"It looks pretty good for Caleb Williams to return this week..

There's a pretty good chance that we see him on Sunday" ~ @RapSheet #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/U9ce6cHNyC

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) October 13, 2026

With an offensive genius like Ben Johnson calling the plays — combined with the Bears’ embarrassment of riches at the skill positions — it really doesn’t matter much who’s under center. Chicago was always going to be a formidable test for a Falcons defense that got a little exposed this past weekend by Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ rushing attack.

Like Baltimore, everything starts on the ground for the Bears. Ben Johnson wants his team running for over 200 yards a game, and he has to be licking his chops after what the Falcons just put on tape. But there’s no denying Caleb Williams adds an entirely different element to Chicago’s offense — one it sorely missed against the Packers, who hammered the Bears by 24 at Lambeau Field on Sunday.

The real question is who’ll be under center for the Falcons, and the answer could very well decide this game. With Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta looks like a legitimate playoff contender. With anyone else — including Tua Tagovailoa, who threw the game-sealing interception in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens — the Falcons look like a team angling for the No. 1 overall pick.

Earlier this week, Adam Schefter reported that Penix’s rib injury isn’t believed to be serious. There’s a chance he starts against the Bears, but Kevin Stefanski said the team will have a better idea of where Penix stands after Wednesday’s practice.

Kevin Stefanski asked if Michael Penix Jr. has a real chance to play this week:

“Yeah, I think it's probably I can answer that better Wednesday. Just with any type of injury, I always want to see how the guys respond over a couple days before I can give you a good answer there.”

— Daniel Flick (@ByDanielFlick) October 12, 2026

Before the injury to Penix, the Falcons were driving with a chance to move to 3-2 and win their third straight. Instead, they sit at 2-3 — and while there’s still plenty of optimism around the team because of how they’ve played the last three weeks, it’s always a slippery slope in this league. If Penix can’t go and the Falcons drop to 2-4, all that momentum they built up will have evaporated in the blink of an eye.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Kevin Stefanski said Michael Penix Jr. should start this weekend against the Bears "as long as everything goes accordingly." pic.twitter.com/o3BxbBnESA

— Tori McElhaney (@tori_mcelhaney) October 14, 2026

Penix suffered a rib injury in the fourth quarter of the Falcons’ loss to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. He did return briefly but was ruled out for overtime, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing the game-sealing interception.

The script for the Falcons has been pretty damn clear through the first five weeks. The team was 0-2 after two games, with Cooper Rush looking like a high school teacher masquerading as an NFL quarterback. Atlanta couldn’t even muster a red zone drive with him under center.

But once Penix returned to the starting lineup, this has been among the most explosive offenses in the NFL. It hasn’t all been perfect, as we saw on Sunday. Penix still has some things to clean up if he wants to be heralded as the franchise’s long-term answer at quarterback, but this team has life with him under center. If he can stay healthy, the Falcons feel like contenders in the NFC South — and they wouldn’t be a fun team for anybody to play come the postseason.

Unfortunately, staying healthy has plagued Penix throughout his football career, dating back to his college days, and through his first three seasons in the league, it’s plagued the Falcons as well.

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That’s enough for one or two meaningful additions — but with this many holes to fill, Anthopoulos will almost certainly have to shed some unwanted salary along the way. The good news: the Braves have plenty of it. The bad news: finding teams willing to absorb bad money is a lot easier said than done.

Spencer Strider

Remaining Contract: 2 years, $49 million

Strider is entering the final two guaranteed years of his deal at $22 million annually, with a club option after that for another $22 million (and a $5 million buyout) — bringing the total to $49 million in guarantees.

Anthopoulos has already admitted the Braves can’t count on Strider moving forward. He hasn’t been healthy in years, and even when he’s pitched, the results have been underwhelming. This might be a case where Atlanta simply has to bite the bullet and hope he rediscovers something down the line. But if the Braves were willing to eat roughly half the salary, you’d imagine a pitching-starved team somewhere would take a flier.

This doesn’t feel completely immovable — as long as Strider’s current injury isn’t going to wipe out all of next season too.

Sean Murphy

Remaining Contract: 2 years, $30 million

Murphy has two guaranteed years left at $15 million per season, plus a club option in 2029 for another $15 million.

He’s an interesting case, because I’m not sure how motivated the Braves are to move him. This is an organization that loves stockpiling starting-caliber catchers, and Murphy is finally heading into an offseason at 100%. There’s a real chance his next two years look a lot better than his recent ones, and $15 million a year isn’t an ugly figure.

But that’s also what makes him the most movable. Good catchers are hard to find, and Murphy still brings plenty behind the plate with real offensive upside. If the Braves wanted to find him a new home, they should have no trouble clearing that money off the books.

Reynaldo Lopez

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $8 million

Another deal Atlanta should be able to move this winter. Lopez’s time with the Braves started with a bang — an All-Star nod and a 1.99 ERA in his first season — but fatigue started catching up to him, and then a shoulder injury limited him to a single start the following year. He hasn’t been the same since, posting a 4.54 ERA over 79.1 innings this season.

Heading into 2027, there isn’t much of a role for him in Atlanta, but a team would likely take a flier given how minimal the deal is. The Braves could put that $8 million to better use elsewhere.

Austin Riley

Remaining Contract: 6 years, $132 million

I had to include Austin Riley, because if I didn’t, I’d have gotten asked about it 100 times.

There’s no question Riley is the biggest albatross contract on the Braves’ books right now. He’s coming off a career-worst season in which he was a below-average player at his position, and his steady year-over-year decline is especially alarming for someone owed $22 million annually over the next six years.

But I just don’t see a world where a Riley trade actually happens this offseason. Teams will call — the offers will just be so low that it makes far more sense for the Braves to roll the dice and bet on a bounce-back after a full, healthy winter. Remember: this time last year, everyone wanted to ship Michael Harris II out for a bag of baseballs, and he turned into Atlanta’s best player this season.

I’m not sold Riley can’t turn it around, and I don’t think the Braves are either — which is exactly why Anthopoulos accepting a lowball offer feels like a long shot.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

This is often where World Series are won — and unfortunately for the Braves, Anthopoulos hasn’t conjured much holiday magic in a long time. It’s a big reason this team keeps falling short of expectations.

Robert Suarez (3 years, $45 million)

The biggest deal Atlanta handed out went to All-Star reliever Robert Suarez, and it was easily the best of the bunch. For the first two-plus months, Suarez was arguably the best reliever in baseball — a 0.56 ERA over 31 appearances. The back end of the Braves’ bullpen was untouchable over that stretch, handing them a massive edge in any tight game that reached the seventh inning.

The problem was health. Suarez suffered an elbow injury in June and didn’t return until the final week of the season, which limited his impact on the postseason run. That’s really the only knock here. If he enters 2027 fully healthy, this still looks like strong work by the front office.

Grade: B+

Ha-Seong Kim (1 year, $20 million)

Not much needs to be said about Ha-Seong Kim. He’ll go down as one of the worst free agent signings in franchise history — impressive, considering it was only a one-year deal.

Kim suffered a significant injury over the offseason after slipping on ice back in Korea, costing him the first couple of months. Frankly, it might have been better had he just missed the whole year. He returned for 51 games and hit .116 with a .359 OPS. A complete waste of $20 million, and one that may have ultimately doomed Atlanta’s season.

Grade: F- (is there anything lower than an F?)

Raisel Iglesias (1 year, $16 million)

The Braves brought back closer Raisel Iglesias on a palatable one-year deal, and he rewarded them with a brilliant first half that earned his first-ever All-Star nod. There were some hiccups down the stretch, but given the price tag, this is one Atlanta would absolutely run back — and they might, with Iglesias headed for free agency again.

Grade: B

Mike Yastrzemski (2 years, $23 million)

Our read on the Yastrzemski signing is probably clouded by what happened to Jurickson Profar, who was suspended for the entire season after his second PED positive. Yaz was brought in for outfield depth and as a platoon option against right-handed pitching.

In that role, the deal wasn’t bad. But once Profar went down, the Braves’ offense needed far more than Yastrzemski could provide, and that shortfall haunted the lineup all the way through October. It’s not a deal Anthopoulos would make again, but it’s not one that crippled the club either.

Grade: C-

Tyler Kinley (1 year, $4.25 million)

Kinley was brought back after a strong stretch in 2025, but the success didn’t carry over. He was haunted by the long ball this past season, surrendering nearly two home runs per nine innings — a death wish for any reliever. That eventually led to a designation for assignment after he posted a 4.01 ERA over 49 appearances. Clearly not a great move, but far from the worst on this list.

Grade: C-

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

It was a losing record for the Leans, which finished 2-4, and that’s probably the last time I’ll be betting Texas A&M or Penn State this season. But Week 7 looks like another exciting slate, so let’s dive into this week’s Locks!

Locks: 16-6-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 23-18

Column overall: 39-24-1

TCU team total under 21.5 at Baylor

My Best Bet of the Week is undefeated this season as we enter Week 7, and I’ll put that streak on the line by betting TCU’s team total under 21.5 points. Excuse me while I overwhelm you with stats and trends.

TCU’s offense has looked absolutely lifeless, and I’m shocked by this number because the Frogs haven’t come anywhere close to clearing it against Power 4 competition. TCU scored 10 against North Carolina, 13 against UCF, and 10 at home against BYU. That’s just 11 points per game against P4 opponents. Now they have to go on the road against arguably the best defense in the Big 12, and I have a hard time seeing TCU suddenly doubling its scoring output against better competition.

Harvard transfer QB Jaden Craig has not lived up to expectations in Fort Worth, but the problems go well beyond quarterback. TCU’s offensive line ranks outside the top 110 nationally in Line Yards, which basically tells us the Frogs aren’t getting much push up front. Meanwhile, Baylor grades as one of the best teams in the country in defensive Line Yards.

In TCU’s two Big 12 losses, the Frogs have averaged just 52.5 rushing yards per game. It’s a brutal matchup for a running game that already grades as one of the worst in the country. One of TCU’s biggest weaknesses—creating dependable rushing push—runs directly into one of Baylor’s biggest strengths.

And while TCU has been more efficient through the air, Baylor’s pass defense grades inside the top 30 nationally, so there really isn’t an obvious escape route for the Frogs if/when the running game gets shut down.

The red-zone matchup might be even worse. TCU ranks outside the top 100 nationally in red-zone scoring, while Baylor ranks #5 in red-zone scoring defense. Even if TCU manages to put together a few drives and get inside scoring range, there is no guarantee those possessions turn into touchdowns, or points at all.

Baylor has held all five opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and I struggle to see TCU becoming the first team to exceed that number. Both teams are coming off a bye, and Dave Aranda said Baylor used the extra time to maintain its energy, momentum and focus. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a rivalry game in which Baylor has lost four of the last five meetings. I expect the Bears to be fully engaged and ready to keep the momentum going for what’s been a strong season.

I had Baylor +4.5 at Arizona State as one of my best bets a few weeks ago, and the Bears rolled to a 55-19 win in Tempe. With DJ Lagway getting healthier, Baylor’s offense is becoming a little more dangerous, but I still expect this game to stay relatively low scoring. I also like the full-game under 49.5.

That should help this bet, because I expect the game to remain competitive enough that Baylor’s defense stays engaged for four quarters instead of building a huge lead and allowing any garbage-time points.

If TCU’s offense somehow got multiple touchdowns better over the bye week and shows it against a top-tier defense, then so be it. Sometimes that’s football. But I’m willing to pay to see this lifeless offense prove it can suddenly produce against a better defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see TCU muster only 10 or 13 points.

Houston -3.5 vs Oklahoma State

There’s a chance Oklahoma State is a little overrated in the market. Oregon has trended downward, which has aged their marquee win over the Ducks poorly, and so has their opening loss to Tulsa. Meanwhile, Houston is rolling right now at 5-1. Their only loss came by inches on a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech, and last week they went to Manhattan as a small road underdog and blew out Kansas State (more on them later).

This game should feature two efficient and explosive offenses, which is why the total is sitting just north of 60. Both defenses have holes, but I trust Houston’s offense more. The Cougars have a very sustainable offensive profile. They are strong on first and second down, and as a result rank top five nationally in creating manageable third-down situations. They also don’t rely heavily on explosive chunk plays. This is an offense that can methodically move the chains on a down-to-down basis.

I trust veteran QB Conner Weigman to keep this offense on schedule and keep Oklahoma State’s defense on the field for what could be some long possessions. Re’Shaun Sanford and Makhi Hughes have formed an excellent 1-2 punch at running back, while Trent Walker, Amare Thomas and star TE Patrick Overmyer are a dependable group of targets. There’s a reason this Houston offense ranks top ten nationally in offensive success rate.

It’s hard to take much away from Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense, which has moved the ball well recently too. But in a lot of ways, the Pokes are the opposite of Houston. Eric Morris’ group is much less efficient at putting together methodical drives and instead relies heavily on explosive chunk plays to generate offense. Houston’s defense has been excellent at limiting explosive runs, so the focus will be taking away Drew Mestemaker’s downfield options and forcing Oklahoma State to string together long drives.

Ultimately, Houston is better equipped offensively to stay on schedule and consistently create scoring opportunities. Both teams should get their points, but I trust Houston’s defense to come up with a few more stops and prevent some of the key explosive plays Oklahoma State relies on.

The Cowboys’ recent game against UCF was pretty telling. Oklahoma State was fortunate to escape with a win after only outgaining UCF by about 40 yards. UCF stayed in the game despite several costly mistakes and held the ball for more than 10 minutes longer than Oklahoma State–a recipe Houston will likely try to recreate. The 42-28 final was misleading, with a third-quarter missed UCF field goal and a fourth-quarter scoop-and-score turning a competitive game into a two-score final.

Oklahoma State-focused reporting also came away concerned about cracks in the defense for a second straight week. Houston should be better equipped than UCF to exploit those same issues because of its down-to-down efficiency and third-down ability.

While Mestemaker has looked really good, this will only be his second career road game against a Power 4 opponent. His first came at West Virginia, which appears to be one of the weaker defenses in the country. Oklahoma State started slowly in Morgantown, trailing 14-3 early and 14-13 at halftime before scoring 28 of its 41 points in the second half.

There is at least some evidence that the Pokes can start slowly on the road. If they do that again in what should be a loud, packed night environment in Houston, I think the Cougars are much better equipped to take advantage and use their methodical offense to control possession and keep the ball out of Mestemaker’s hands.

Ultimately, Houston’s defense does not need to shut down Oklahoma State’s offense — and it probably won’t. This game will come down to getting a few stops here and there and limiting enough explosive plays to create separation. I trust Houston’s offense more, I love the spot in a home night game, and my ratings make this Houston -7, so I show clear value. Give me the Cougs at home.

FAU +3 at Army

I’m backing FAU again, as the Owls are no strangers to service academy offenses. FAU has already played Navy this season, so they shouldn’t be thrown off by Army’s option offense, especially coming off a bye with even more time to prepare. Army QB Cale Hellums is a solid player, but this offense doesn’t look quite as dangerous as some of the Black Knights teams we’ve seen in recent years.

Army has consistently scored in the low 20s, with 24 points against USF, 21 against Temple and 20 against Tulane. That’s partly a product of the way the Black Knights play–wanting to run the ball, put together long methodical drives, keep the opposing offense on the sideline and shorten the game. But I’m not convinced that scoring in the low 20s will be enough against an FAU offense capable of putting points on the board quickly. Army’s defense simply hasn’t seen an offense like the one it will face Saturday.

We already saw how this matchup can play out when FAU faced Navy earlier this season. I had FAU +6 as one of my best bets that week, and the Owls won outright after taking complete control early. FAU led 31-7 at halftime and forced Navy into exactly the type of game it didn’t want to play. Once the Midshipmen fell behind, they had to move away from their run-first approach and try to play catch-up. Navy added some late garbage-time points to make the final look closer, but FAU dictated the game from the start.

I could see a similar script at Michie Stadium. FAU QB Caden Veltkamp and his excellent receiving trio of Easton Messer, Dominique Henry and Kelby Valsin should have opportunities against an Army defense that is not that impressive.

Don’t let some of the final scores fool you — this Army defense is worse than it looks. The Black Knights allowed 28 points to a broken USF offense, then surrendered 460 yards and 8.8 yards per play to Temple in a game where Army was outplayed. Even the 17 points Army allowed to Tulane are a little misleading. The Green Wave threw an interception and turned the ball over on downs on separate possessions inside the Army 30-yard line. There were plenty of opportunities for Tulane to put more points on the board. That’s concerning against an FAU offense built to attack defenses through the air, and Army ranks outside the top 100 nationally in pass defense.

A key stat in this matchup is average third-down distance. FAU ranks top 15 nationally, meaning the Owls consistently keep themselves out of third-and-long situations. Army’s defense ranks in the bottom 15 in that same category, allowing opposing offenses to get into manageable third downs far too often.

I do think FAU’s defense is slightly improved from last season, but I’m not expecting the Owls to completely shut Army down. The Black Knights will have success running the ball, putting together long drives and scoring points. But I’m trusting FAU’s offense to bail its defense out. The Owls should be able to move the ball consistently, and if they can get ahead early, it puts tremendous pressure on Army to play catch-up, where the Black Knights don’t want to be.

FAU’s defense has also been excellent at forcing turnovers this season. In a game where Army wants to shorten the game and limit possessions, even one turnover that gives FAU an extra possession is a huge advantage and could completely disrupt the Black Knights’ rhythm.

That’s another reason I keep coming back to the Navy game. FAU doesn’t necessarily have to dominate Army defensively. It just needs to score enough to force the Black Knights away from their preferred style. I’m 2-0 betting on FAU this season, and I’m looking for a third win. The Owls are in the middle of what could become a special season, and I expect them to win outright at Michie Stadium and continue their push toward an AAC Championship Game appearance.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Ohio St @ Indiana, under 51.5 — We’ve seen these teams play before, and it’s been low scoring. Plus, there’s just a little something missing with the Hoosiers so far this year. In both games where they’ve been tested (NW and Nebraska), we’ve seen it be a lower-scoring affair.

Kansas +7 @ Kansas St — This spread has dropped to 4.5, but if it were still around the opening number of 7, it would probably be my best bet of the week. K-State has looked underwhelming against a very easy schedule, and I’ve seen some positives from the Jayhawks in competitive losses. Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall is capable of making some big plays, and K-State can give up points. My ratings make this KSU -5, and I think the Jayhawks are live to win outright here.

UNC +3.5 @ Duke — I only make this game a pick’em, and I wonder if the market just hasn’t caught up to where Duke should be properly rated. UNC’s two losses to Clemson and Notre Dame have been competitive, and this defense is impressive. Duke RB Nate Sheppard looked a little banged up last weekend against Georgia Tech, and I wonder about his health. I trust these defenses, so I’ll take the points.

Notre Dame -10 @ BYU — I can’t get BYU’s matchups with Texas Tech from last year out of my head. The Cougars looked so overwhelmed from the kick in both games, and while I think BYU is a good team, I don’t exactly think they’re better than last year. But I do think this Notre Dame team is much better than last year’s Texas Tech squad. And without RB LJ Martin, I struggle to see how BYU can score enough to really hang in this game. It may be close early on, but the Irish have too much firepower in the second half. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Notre Dame pull away and win by 17-20 points.

Georgia St +12.5 @ James Madison — I’ll fade JMU for a second straight week. The Dukes were fortunate to escape Statesboro with a win last Saturday, and now they’re playing for a seventh consecutive week while Georgia St comes in rested off a bye. Dell McGee is doing some special things this season, and this Panthers offense is rolling, averaging just shy of 40 points per game. I still question JMU’s résumé and don’t think the Dukes have played many good teams (if any at all). Their two best wins are against the corpse of San Diego St and a Georgia Southern team that probably should’ve beaten them last week. Georgia St has enough offense to hang around here, and if I’m right that JMU is slightly overrated, I think the Panthers are live to win outright.

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And it’s hard to blame them. Robinson is far and away the best running back in the league — a player with zero weaknesses in his game who, as long as he stays healthy, will go down as one of the greatest ever at the position. The Falcons’ offense runs through their star back. But none of it works without the versatile threat of Drake London in the passing game.

London, like Robinson, is the embodiment of everything the Falcons want their culture to be. He’s spent his entire career in Atlanta while the franchise played musical chairs at quarterback, yet you’d never know it from the way he plays in every phase of the game. And the numbers are staggering.

Two years ago, London finished fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, and he was on pace to top that last season before an injury limited him to 12 games. He still finished just shy of 1,000 yards — 25th in the league, ahead of names like D.K. Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and Davante Adams, all of whom played at least three more games than he did.

But 2026 is shaping up to be his best work yet. Through five games, he’s already approaching 500 receiving yards, good for fourth in the league — and it’s even more impressive considering two of those came with Cooper Rush under center, who throttled the entire passing attack. In the three games Penix has started, London is averaging over 135 yards. It’s completely fair to say that if Penix had been healthy from the jump, London would be leading the NFL in receiving, and it wouldn’t be close.

You can go up and down the league and find tons of fantastic receivers. But try to build a list of guys who’ve strung together a three-year run like London’s since the start of 2024, and it’s damn near impossible. He’s establishing himself as a top-five wideout in the game, and Pro Football Focus has taken note, ranking him the second-best receiver in the league behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

“London had another strong showing in the Sunday Night Football loss to the Baltimore Ravens, hauling in seven of 10 targets for 118 yards,” Gordon McGuinness writes. “He ranks fourth at the position with a 91.0 PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run (3.70), trailing only Smith-Njigba and Flowers.”

Drake London might not be the fastest receiver on the field. He’s liable to get run down by just about anybody in the secondary, even with a 10-yard head start. He doesn’t have a reel of one-handed grabs going viral on social media. But when it comes to getting open? Good luck. He’s a maestro at his craft, and if the Falcons ever find stability at quarterback, the numbers are going to be absurd.

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He didn’t come close to the standard he’s set for himself. This is a player who, when healthy, has been a top-five talent in the sport — a former NL MVP who, on the surface, doesn’t seem fazed by the moment.

But dig into his playoff numbers and you have to go back half a decade to find an October that resembles the Acuña we’re used to watching in the regular season. The postseason has been a sore spot for years, and this one was no different: .125 with zero extra-base hits and zero RBIs across six games.

Acuña was booed after his final at-bat against Los Angeles and later seen with tears in his eyes as he faced the music in front of the media. He then deleted all his social media, and the questions about his future in Atlanta started flying.

With two years left on his contract, is it finally time the Braves consider trading him if they have no intention of offering an extension?

Those are exactly the questions you get in the days after another disappointing October. The Braves clearly need to change something if they want to win in the postseason again — but if you think the answer is dealing away the most talented player on the roster, don’t hold your breath.

MLB insider Jon Heyman confirmed as much Wednesday, saying teams will call to check on Acuña’s availability, but that it’s a “long shot” the Braves actually move him.

Atlanta has won just one playoff series since hoisting the World Series trophy five years ago. They’re no longer in a position to scoff at anything. They should be listening to anybody and everybody — Ronald Acuña Jr. included.

But the real issue here, as it so often is, comes down to value. Are there really teams out there ready to offer a Juan Soto-type package for a player who’s dealt with a litany of injuries and is coming off arguably the worst season of his career?

I could be wrong, but the only way Anthopoulos ever moves his best player is if the return is simply too good to pass up — a haul that keeps the Braves legitimate contenders now while setting them up for even more three or four years down the line.

Short of someone walking through the door with that kind of offer, these conversations go nowhere. The Braves’ best shot at finally getting this postseason monkey off their back is with Acuña hitting leadoff and playing right field. Anyone who thinks otherwise is grossly misinformed.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Congratulations to our Gold Glove Award finalists: Chris Sale, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Mauricio Dubón! pic.twitter.com/7sbvH1cqUG

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 14, 2026

The Braves have had plenty of problem areas over the last several seasons, but defense has never been one of them.

Michael Harris II leads the way and is one of the best defensive players in all of baseball. Unfortunately, he plays a position stacked with elite gloves — none better than soon-to-be NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, who’s going to win the award again this season. I do believe there will come a year we see Harris win a Gold Glove. He’s that special defensively; it would just be a lot easier if he played a different outfield spot.

The other three candidates all have strong cases to take home some hardware. Matt Olson is the best defensive first baseman in the game. He already has three Gold Gloves, and a fourth should be coming in the very near future.

Mauricio Dubon feels like a strong bet to win the utility award too. This is a guy who was unbelievable at shortstop — the toughest position on the field — and just as reliable when asked to play the outfield, which was on full display when he robbed Freddie Freeman of a home run in the NLDS with the series tied 1-1. Among players who move all over the diamond, he’s one of the best defenders these two eyes have ever seen. If Dubon wins, it’ll be the third Gold Glove of his career.

For Chris Sale, it would be the second — both with the Braves — as he keeps adding to a Hall of Fame résumé. That’s what makes players like him so special: no detail goes unnoticed. It’s a big reason Sale is pitching the best baseball of his entire career at 37 years old.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

The math is simple, and unforgiving. A loss drops Atlanta to 2-4, and in a loaded NFC, that essentially ends the Wild Card conversation before November even arrives. From there, the NFC South crown becomes the only realistic path — which was always the likeliest route anyway. The division has been the laughingstock of football for years, and with the Bucs and Saints both cratering, it’s once again the worst in the league by a comfortable margin.

Carolina leads the South at 2-2, a half-game up on the Falcons and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Panthers get a winnable spot this week too, traveling to a flawed Eagles team that will be without Jalen Hurts. If Atlanta slips to 2-4 while Carolina climbs, the Falcons’ margin for error gets razor thin, with the undefeated 49ers on deck.

Then there’s the momentum aspect, which has swung wildly already. Through two weeks, the Falcons looked like the worst team in the NFL. Michael Penix Jr.’s return flipped everything — back-to-back 21-point wins and a sudden “hottest team in the league” label. But the blown lead to the Ravens stopped that cold, and a second straight loss, this one at home to the Bears, would bury it entirely. The conversation would shift right back to next year — an all too familiar feeling for the franchise this time of year.

The Bears have plenty riding on this too. At 3-2 and tied for second in the NFC North, Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss to the rival Packers and badly wants a bounce-back — especially if Caleb Williams is cleared after missing three games with a hamstring injury. A loss could drop them three back of Minnesota, who already holds the tiebreaker from a Week 2 win in Chicago.

So it all comes down to Sunday. Win, and the Falcons can credibly say the division is theirs for the taking, sitting 3-1 since Penix took over. Lose, and they’re staring at a 2-4 hole just as the schedule turns brutal — the 49ers, Chiefs, Bengals, and Vikings all waiting over the next month.

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Especially when you look at how the season actually played out. The Braves couldn’t lose over the first two months, touting the best record in baseball with the best offense and the best pitching staff in the sport. Only one of those held up the rest of the way, and it wasn’t the one anyone expected.

From June until the Dodgers finally ended their season, the offense went quiet. Atlanta’s NLDS woes were really just a microcosm of what Braves fans had watched for four straight months — a group that couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position or do the little things required to manufacture runs, which added up to one of the least effective offenses in baseball.

Those issues were masked well enough during the regular season, largely thanks to the elite pitching. But every offensive flaw gets magnified in October against better arms, and Atlanta’s became obvious the moment the Dodgers showed up. The Braves finished the NLDS 1-for-23 with runners in scoring position — the second-worst mark in postseason history, and the worst since 1966.

The Braves went 1-for-23 (.043) with runners in scoring position in the series against the Dodgers.

That's the second-lowest batting average with RISP in a postseason series in MLB history (min. 20 AB with RISP), behind only the Dodgers in the 1966 World Series (0-for-22).

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) October 8, 2026

Numbers like that make it easy to point the finger at hitting coach Tim Hyers. The offense has stayed relatively healthy the last two years, yet the production has dropped off significantly from its 2023 peak, when the Braves were historically great and set a slew of MLB records. Atlanta ranked 8th in runs scored this season — respectable enough — but 16th in OPS and, most glaring of all, 28th in on-base percentage at .309. Back in 2023, they led the league in that category at .344.

But here’s the question worth raising: how much of this is really on Tim Hyers?

This is an organization built around the long ball — a slug-or-bust mentality implemented by the front office, and one franchise legend Chipper Jones has criticized ad nauseam. It works just fine over 162 games, but these playoff numbers suggest a much deeper root cause than a hitting coach who’s only been around since the start of 2025.

“The Braves shouldn’t try to spin their postseason hitting woes as just the randomness of the baseball or because they faced good pitching,” MLB writer Jason Foster writes on Twitter/X. “When you compare them to the rest of the postseason field over the past five years, they stand out in the worst way.

“Since the start of the 2022 postseason, Atlanta is last — by a wide margin — in average (.185), on-base percentage (.265), OPS (.575), runs per game (2.6) and average with RISP (.180) among teams that’ve played at least 15 postseason games (that’s 14 teams).

“They’re the only team with a postseason average below .200, the only team with a postseason OPS below .600 and the only postseason team that averages fewer than three runs per game. Meanwhile, their .265 OBP is nearly 20 points lower than the next-closest team.”

This is no longer a sample size anyone can scoff at. What the Braves are doing philosophically isn’t working, and it hasn’t worked for a long time. They can try to make Hyers the scapegoat, and maybe he hasn’t done enough to fix the issues. But until the people at the top admit there’s a problem with the way this team approaches offense, the Braves are going to keep running into the same wall every October.

The issues run much deeper than one man not doing his job. Fixing them will take an all-hands-on-deck approach — a scarier thing to admit, but ignoring it will only leave the Braves further behind.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for Sunday night’s game in Atlanta.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 9, 2026

Tyler Huntley will start in Jackson’s place, and while the injury will make the game significantly more manageable, it still isn’t going to be a walk in the park. The Ravens are a well-coached football team with a ton of talent on both sides of the ball — easily the best all-around team the Falcons have faced this season — and Huntley has a lot of NFL experience as a backup.

Just last year, the Ravens went 2-0 in games he started, so hopefully there’s no letdown from Atlanta as the team looks to build even more momentum following back-to-back wins over the Packers and Saints.

In more good news, both Jake Matthews and Za’Darius Smith participated in practice today and will be game-time decisions for Sunday’s showdown.

The Streak is questionable as Jake Matthews sitting on 199 consecutive starts but listed as questionable on the game report, along with three other starters. Yasir Abdullah out coming off a career game. pic.twitter.com/HsHBsQqtkQ

— Josh Kendall (@JoshTheAthletic) October 9, 2026

Matthews added that he feels really good about his chances of playing, and when a guy who has started 199 consecutive games says something along those lines, you can usually take him at his word.

Yasir Abdullah is out after the best game of his career last week against the Saints, when he filled in for Za’Darius Smith, who suffered a concussion in the first quarter. That’s even more reason Smith’s status will be one to monitor closely leading up to game time. Without him, the Falcons will be really thin on the edge — not an ideal scenario against Derrick Henry and company.

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Photo: IMAGO / Carneiro Images

The Braves haven’t had a legitimate shortstop since Dansby Swanson walked in free agency after the 2022 season. Orlando Arcia gave them one good half and then cratered. Nick Allen was a glove and nothing else. And Ha-Seong Kim might go down as one of the worst free agent signings in franchise history — which is almost impressive, considering it was only a one-year deal.

The trouble with finding a replacement is simple: shortstops cost a fortune, and nobody trades a good one once they have him. So Atlanta has been left scraping the bottom of the barrel. But the Braves actually have a solution sitting right in front of them in Mauricio Dubon. He’s an elite defender who was more than adequate at the plate, and bringing him back on a two- or three-year deal — a bridge until one of their prospect shortstops is ready — makes all the sense in the world.

That leaves left field as the one spot where Atlanta can upgrade on offense. And if there’s a blemish on Anthopoulos’ résumé, it’s how he’s handled this position since 2021. Jarred Kelenic was a horrendous whiff. Jurickson Profar was somehow worse. Mike Yastrzemski was just average this past season. Left field is where teams get to hide a shaky defender in exchange for offense — and the Braves have gotten next to nothing out of it since their World Series run.

That has to change in 2027, and making it happen will require Anthopoulos to write a bigger check. Former MLB GM Steve Phillips thinks he knows the perfect target: Randy Arozarena.

@StevePhillipsGM believes Randy Arozarena could be a fit for the Braves this offseason in free agency — should Atlanta make him the answer to its left field void? pic.twitter.com/Dt8KNKB5Vl

— 680 The Fan (@680TheFan) October 8, 2026

The version of Arozarena we saw in Seattle this year would fit any team in need of a left fielder. He posted 5.7 WAR, hitting 26 home runs with an .865 OPS — and arguably the two best seasons of his career have come in his last two with the Mariners, earning All-Star honors both times.

He’s also built for October. Over 45 career postseason games, Arozarena is hitting .292 with a .946 OPS, and the fact that he isn’t a home-run-or-bust bat should be especially enticing for a Braves lineup starving for guys who hit for average and get on base.

It’s a match made in heaven — but the price and the age could force Atlanta to pivot. Arozarena will be looking for at least a three-year deal this offseason, and probably could land four after the year he just had. Set to turn 32 next season, that’s a hefty commitment for a player who could fade early into the contract. That’s exactly the kind of risk the Braves have historically avoided, and as much as I love the fit, I’m skeptical they’ll do what it takes to get it done.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Kevin Stefanski has never been shy about the identity he wants: pound you on the ground and keep punching until you fold — bully ball, the exact brand of football the Ravens have built their last two decades on. The irony is that Baltimore beat Atlanta at its own game.

It was clear from the opening quarter. The Falcons came in with the best run defense in the NFL, surrendering under 50 yards a game on the ground. The Ravens didn’t care. Derrick Henry and Justice Hill gashed them for over 200 yards combined.

And yet, early on, Atlanta’s defense kept making timely plays. A goal-line stand on Baltimore’s opening drive held the Ravens to a field goal, and on the very next possession the Falcons punched out a fumble and returned it for a touchdown. Through the first 20 minutes, Atlanta had managed exactly one first down and punted on all three of its drives — and somehow led 7-6.

Then Penix found his rhythm. He hit Drake London and Jahan Dotson downfield to set up first-and-goal before firing a strike to Kyle Pitts for the score. The Falcons took a five-point lead into the half and came out of the break humming — this time on the ground, as Bijan Robinson, quiet in the first half, finally got going. A 38-yard burst set Atlanta up at the three.

And here’s where the game turned into a catalog of what’s still holding Penix back. Tommy Rees dialed up a gem, with Jake Matthews reporting eligible and sitting wide open in the end zone. No pressure, a clean pocket — and while it wasn’t the worst throw ever, there was no reason Matthews should’ve had to leap for it. The ball hit the turf. A touchdown became a field goal, and the Ravens stayed within striking distance. That became the story of the entire second half.

Baltimore answered on the next possession — a 47-yard Justice Hill scamper on 4th-and-1, capped by Henry. From there, the Falcons took over the game in every way but the one that mattered: the scoreboard.

Atlanta drove right back into Ravens territory and turned it over on downs when Penix, pressure in his face, couldn’t connect with a wide-open Charlie Woerner in the flat. Another missed chance. The defense then forced back-to-back three-and-outs, and both times the offense responded with strong drives — and both times settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. The Ravens hung around because Atlanta let them.

The last one stung the most. Penix again missed an open Bijan Robinson in the flat on third down — a catch Robinson could’ve taken all the way to Flowery Branch. It wasn’t an easy throw under pressure, but those are the throws that separate good quarterbacks from the rest, and right now they’re the only thing keeping Penix from taking the leap. They’re layups for the best in the game. Hit them, and the Falcons are up three scores.

Instead, the door stayed cracked. With 2:31 left, Tyler Huntley did his best Tom Brady impression, marching the Ravens down the field with ease for the tying touchdown. Baltimore needed two to force overtime, and they put the ball in Henry’s hands — a direct snap to the left, in with ease.

The Falcons still had a shot to win it in regulation, and when Penix hit Dotson for 18 with about 40 seconds left, the drive looked promising. But in this league, a season can turn in a single snap. On the very next play, Penix was walloped for a 10-yard loss, stayed down, and left the game with a rib injury.

The drive died there. Baltimore opened overtime with a surgical, seven-minute touchdown march, and by then the stiffness in Penix’s ribs had set in — opening the door for Tua Tagovailoa’s first appearance as a Falcon.

It started promising. A 20-yard strike to Drake London over the middle was a reminder that Tagovailoa has started plenty of NFL games and led plenty of game-winning drives. Then his very next throw — a meatball lobbed right into Kyle Hamilton’s chest — was a reminder of why Miami ate $100 million just to be rid of him. A horrendous way to end it, and it left all of Atlanta praying Penix’s injury is nothing serious.

After the game, Penix said he doesn’t believe it’ll keep him out long, but we’ll know more Monday once imaging comes back on the ribs.

NEW — Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr tells Dave Archer of the Falcons radio network he is going to "get some imaging" after a rib injury ended his night, "but it's nothing season-ending." pic.twitter.com/580rSUk4So

— Justin Felder (@Justin_FOX5) October 12, 2026

And that’s the all-too-familiar part. Every single time this organization builds a little momentum, something comes along to remind everyone who we are. Atlanta had every chance to bury this game on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had no business losing it — and they lost their oft-injured quarterback in the process. One step forward, five steps back. Sunday was just the latest reminder that the Falcons can’t have nice things. Worth remembering the next time we start feeling good about this team.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Spencer Strider hasn’t looked like himself since undergoing InternalBrace surgery in 2024. He’s lost a ton of life on both his fastball and slider, going from one of the most dominant young pitchers this league has ever seen to just another arm.

There was hope entering this season that a full, healthy offseason might bring back something closer to the pitcher we saw in 2023. It never came. The stuff remained wildly underwhelming and ineffective — and he was eventually shut down for the year with yet another elbow injury.

Even more discouraging: Spencer Schwellenbach didn’t throw a single pitch all season. Midway through 2025, he looked like the next ace in Atlanta — humming it 100 MPH with a legitimate six-pitch mix and total command of the zone. Then he fractured his elbow, ending his season, and the injury still hasn’t healed properly. It got bad enough that he needed a screw put in the elbow, which casts real doubt over whether we’ll ever see him pitch in a Braves uniform again, let alone lead the rotation.

Alex Anthopoulos essentially confirmed as much in his exit interview with Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman, acknowledging the club can’t go into next season expecting much from either Strider or Schwellenbach given their injuries.

“I think from a planning standpoint, I don’t think it’d be responsible to sit here and say, ‘OK, those guys are going to start 30 games and throw 180 innings.’ So that’s something we’re definitely going to have to account for and talk about where we’re going to get our innings for next season,” Anthopoulos said.

“I remember telling Grant Holmes last offseason at the beginning, how he progressed was going to tell us what his potential role would be and how we would bank him and so on in terms of anything. So, if you sit here today, I don’t think you’re going to see us come in and say that we expect [Strider and Schwellenbach] to be locks in the rotation with [Chris] Sale.”

I’d take it a step further: the Braves shouldn’t be counting on anything from either of them. Strider, even when healthy, has been a below-average pitcher for multiple years now. Schwellenbach — if he’s even ready by Opening Day — will not have started a game in nearly two years. As beloved and talented as both were before the injuries, they should be penciled in for nothing until they prove otherwise.

Expecting production from them would be a gross miscalculation — exactly the kind of mistake the Braves can’t afford to make two years in a row.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Orlando Arcia had a great first half in 2023 but never provided much after that. Vaughn Grissom struggled both offensively and defensively. Nick Allen couldn’t hit, and Ha-Seong Kim was one of the biggest free agent busts in Braves franchise history.

It remains one of the few places Atlanta could look to massively upgrade its roster, and MLB insider Joel Sherman believes the Braves could revisit talks with the Rangers surrounding All-Star shortstop Corey Seager.

.@Joelsherman1 mentions the Braves' past interest in acquiring Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager https://t.co/ILX5O0cO5q pic.twitter.com/bDpoyiYJkZ

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 9, 2026

Last year at the Winter Meetings, it was reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that the Braves were one of several teams in contact with the Rangers about a potential move for Seager.

“The question is whether the club has any interest in furthering discussions,” Evan Grant wrote. “According to two people with knowledge of the conversations, several deep-pocketed teams, including the Boston Red Sox, have noted the Rangers’ financial approach to the winter and have expressed interest in Seager this offseason. While the Rangers have noted the interest and haven’t explicitly said he’s unavailable, they haven’t engaged in deeper discussions.

“Other teams that have inquired include Atlanta and the New York Yankees.”

The Rangers ultimately decided to run it back in an attempt to return to the playoffs — a venture that failed, as they couldn’t even win the lousy AL West, which could prompt them to be more aggressive sellers this offseason.

However, the return Texas gets isn’t likely to match what it would have received a year ago. Corey Seager will be 33 years old next season. He’s had more than his fair share of injury concerns over the years, missing 60 games in each of the last two seasons, and is coming off a campaign in which he recorded the lowest OPS (.736) of his entire career. Now factor in that he’s still owed $31.5 million in each of the next five seasons, and nobody is going to take on all of that money and send the Rangers top prospects too.

The return will likely depend on how much of that contract Texas is willing to eat. If the Braves wanted to take on all or most of the money, they probably wouldn’t have to give up any worthwhile prospects at all. However, Atlanta isn’t normally the type of organization interested in paying players in the twilight of their careers north of $30 million.

The Rangers are undoubtedly a team to watch when it comes to the Braves this offseason. The two sides reportedly had a trade in place at the deadline for Jacob deGrom before he used his no-trade clause to stay in Texas. Those are also conversations that could heat up again if the two-time Cy Young winner has a change of heart.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Only two are up this year, and neither is a difficult decision.

Braves 2027 Club Options

• Ronald Acuña Jr. ($17 million)
• Ozzie Albies ($7 million, $4 million buyout)

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You could feasibly make the argument that the Braves should at least explore trading Ronald Acuña Jr. this offseason if they have no intention of extending him beyond his current deal. With two years left on his contract, maybe somebody steps forward with a prospect haul big enough to intrigue Atlanta.

I don’t personally think it happens. But what I can guarantee is that the Braves pick up his very team-friendly $17 million option for 2027.

The same goes for Ozzie Albies. The second baseman had a rough second half, and the days of him being in the conversation for the best player at his position may be behind him. But he’s still a tremendous clubhouse presence and one of the few Braves bats who actually showed up in the postseason.

Since Atlanta would save just $3 million by cutting him loose, this is another no-brainer. There’s no world where the Braves don’t pick up that option, and while Albies is another name Anthopoulos could at least field calls on, I’d bet good money he’s starting at second base on Opening Day in 2027.

The bigger question with both Acuña and Albies is whether the Braves would entertain an extension. Each has fallen short of expectations the last couple of seasons. Acuña’s issues have been almost exclusively injury-related — and that’s not a concern that seems likely to ever fully disappear.

Still, if Atlanta believes either can be a solid contributor over the next half-decade, there may never be a better time to strike on value. Both would likely sign this offseason for far less than we’d have imagined a couple of years ago — which could be an opening the Braves would be wise not to ignore.

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Photo: IMAGO / NurPhoto

Is it finally time to shake up this core and move one of their big pieces? Who in the world can they actually count on in the rotation? What does the future hold for Didier Fuentes? And which of their many free agents are worth aggressively trying to retain?

Those are just a few of the puzzles ahead, and Atlanta will need to solve most of them if it wants to seriously challenge a powerhouse like the Dodgers. But as for the single biggest priority, ESPN’s David Schoenfield believes it’s finally finding an answer at shortstop — a revolving door for the Braves ever since Dansby Swanson left in free agency.

“Shortstop,” Schoenfield writes. “Ha-Seong Kim is also a free agent and he was a $20 million disaster, hitting .116 in 147 at-bats. Dubon ended up starting the most games there, 51, but he’s also a free agent, and his best role is as a utility guy. Rookie Jim Jarvis started 35 games, but he hit .207 with one home run. Prospect Tate Southisene is a couple of years away.

“Aside from that, re-signing Mahle, who pitched so well after coming over at the trade deadline, is another big priority given the uncertainty of Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach returning from injuries. Didier Fuentes will be ready to replace Iglesias as closer, so given the subtraction of Kim, Fuentes and other free agents, there should be room to bring back Mahle.”

The trouble with solving shortstop externally is the cost: these guys command either a fortune or a package of top prospects, and the asking prices are always astronomical — the kind the Braves have consistently refused to meet. Since that’s not likely to change, I wouldn’t expect Anthopoulos to take a big swing here, which is exactly why re-signing Mauricio Dubon should be near the top of the list.

He’s elite defensively and gives you more than enough at the plate for the position, and he shouldn’t require a massive commitment — likely a two- or three-year deal somewhere in the $10-15 million AAV range. That feels like the smart bridge until Atlanta decides one of its intriguing shortstop prospects is ready to take over.

Tyler Mahle belongs on the priority list too. The Braves already know they can’t bank on Strider or Schwellenbach. Martin Perez is a free agent. And while Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes were surprisingly steady for most of the season, neither is the kind of arm that pushes this club over the top.

Mahle was a revelation after the deadline — a 1.99 ERA across nine regular season starts — and then somehow got better in October, forming a legitimate one-two punch with Chris Sale. The catch is that the strong finish may have priced him right out of Atlanta, which would leave the Braves in a very tough spot in the rotation.

One route they’ll almost certainly weigh is moving Didier Fuentes back into the rotation. Schoenfield floats Fuentes as the heir to Raisel Iglesias at closer, and there’s little doubt he could handle it. But he’s far more valuable as a starter, and the Braves would be foolish to slam that door this early in his career just because he dominated out of the bullpen this year.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

They were reportedly in on Tarik Skubal, but per Ken Rosenthal, they never got close before he was shipped to the Dodgers — the very team that would go on to end Atlanta’s season. Now we know a little more about why those talks stalled: the Braves refused to put Didier Fuentes on the table.

“One of the youngsters apparently not on the table was Didier Fuentes, as the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham reports that the Braves ‘wouldn’t part with’ the right-hander as part of the negotiations with Detroit,” Mark Polishuk writes for MLB Trade Rumors. “While it isn’t known what exactly the Tigers wanted from the Braves in terms of an overall trade package, Atlanta’s desire to keep Fuentes speaks to how quickly the righty has risen to prominence in the team’s future plans.”

In the end, this could go down as one of those trades the Braves are thrilled they never made. Pitching wasn’t the reason Atlanta failed to get past the NLDS, and the arm they did acquire at the deadline — Tyler Mahle — actually outperformed Skubal and cost them nothing. Had the Braves dealt Fuentes for Skubal and still come up short, they’d be absolutely sick about it right now.

Fuentes is one of the most talented young arms in the game. He was a weapon out of the bullpen, posting a 2.04 ERA over his final 56 relief appearances. His role going forward is still a bit of an open question — Atlanta would likely love to stretch him back out as a starter and see if the success carries over — but either way, five more years of control is infinitely more valuable than two months of a rental, no matter how dominant that rental has been over his career.

There was never a world in which the Braves should have moved Fuentes for a few months of Skubal, and if that’s what it took just to get the conversation going, Anthopoulos was right to walk away. As I say all the time: sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. This is a perfect example.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

He did return briefly for one play before overtime, but when the Falcons needed a touchdown to tie it in the extra period, Penix was unavailable, forcing them to turn to backup Tua Tagovailoa — who promptly threw a game-ending interception on his third pass of the night.

Five weeks in, the picture is pretty clear. With Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons can win a lot of football games. Without him, they’re one of the worst teams in the league — and it doesn’t matter whether it’s Tua, Jack Strand, or Cooper Rush. Every one of them has been horrendous when asked to run the offense.

That’s exactly why Falcons fans spent Monday anxiously awaiting the MRI results. Thankfully, the news was good. Adam Schefter reported that Penix’s injury isn’t believed to be serious, and that he could potentially play this Sunday against the Bears.

Michael Penix’s rib injury is not considered serious, per sources. Penix might be able to return for Sunday’s game vs. the Bears, but the team wants to be cautious and see him practice this week before it knows whether he will be able to play in Week 6.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 12, 2026

It’s a tricky spot for Atlanta. This is a franchise starved for winning — no postseason since 2017 — and with Penix under center, this team could very well be 3-0. That has everyone pushing for him to play, even if he’s not 100%. But given his injury history, the Falcons are expected to tread carefully.

For now, Penix is a question mark for the Bears game, and the hope is that it’s nothing longer than that. Because the reality is simple: the Falcons are only a playoff team with him under center. Without him, they are vying for a top draft pick. The rest of the quarterback room has already proven it’s completely incompetent.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

It’s not for a lack of trying. Anthopoulos ran it back with Eddie Rosario in 2022 and 2023, which failed miserably. He went back to the well by re-acquiring Jorge Soler, which didn’t work either. Jarred Kelenic was supposed to be a high-upside reclamation the Braves could fix, and he flopped. And then Atlanta actually spent significant money on Jurickson Profar — the worst move of them all.

To be fair, you can’t pin all of that on the Braves. How were they supposed to know Profar had cheated his way into a massive deal with the Padres? He got busted just a few games into his Braves career, but when he returned, he closed the year strong — a .787 OPS over the final 80 games.

That inspired a little confidence heading into 2026. Then he got busted again for PEDs, this time earning a season-long suspension. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. After the first positive test, Profar played dumb, claiming he had no idea how the steroids wound up in his breakfast. It’s always a weak excuse, but the Braves accepted it because, frankly, because they didn’t have a choice.

After the second one, there’s nothing left to debate. Profar is a cheat, and there’s only one right way to handle it: release him.

Anthopoulos wouldn’t commit to that immediately after the season, but he acknowledged in his end-of-season press conference that the team would regroup and make a decision on Profar’s future.

“There isn’t anything that prevents me from talking about it,” Anthopoulos said. “What I can tell you is, we’re going to have to sit and talk internally just across the board about the whole thing.”

The financial piece is the frustrating part. The Braves didn’t have to pay Profar during his suspension, but he’s still owed $15 million next season, and there’s no getting out of it. Even so, this shouldn’t require much discussion. He torched the organization not once but twice, and there’s a real argument he cost the Braves their season. Atlanta wasn’t far from toppling the two-time defending champion Dodgers — it just needed a little more offensive firepower, and the black hole in left field hurt as much as anything.

You simply can’t let a player like that keep rotting the clubhouse. The money will sting, but there’s no place for Jurickson Profar in Atlanta. He should never wear a tomahawk across his chest again.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

But MLB Trade Rumors did release its arbitration estimates for 2027 — one of the most useful articles every year. So let’s take a look at some of those numbers for the Atlanta Braves, with some brief notes on which guys could potentially be non-tendered.

Braves 2027 Arbitration Estimates

• Dylan Lee (4.150): $4.2MM
• James Karinchak (4.130): $1.1MM
• Joey Wentz (3.166): $900K
• Michael Grove (3.122): $1MM
• Luke Williams (3.070): $900K
• Bryce Elder (3.069): $4MM

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Bryce Elder and Dylan Lee are the two biggest names this year, and there is probably a case for the Braves to non-tender them both. Lee was amazing throughout the first half of the season, but from July 2nd to the end of the regular season, he posted a 5.90 ERA.

My guess is that at $4.2 million, the Braves don’t think too long about handing him that money. Atlanta is already pretty thin when it comes to left-handed relievers, and Lee’s track record remains very solid, recording a 2.89 ERA over 269 relief appearances with the club.

The decision on Bryce Elder is much more difficult. He had a nice bounce-back campaign, recording a 4.11 ERA over 26 starts. The Braves probably aren’t in the position they are in today without him, and $4 million for a starting pitcher is chump change — even if Elder is nothing more than an innings eater.

However, what the Braves will really have to decide is whether Elder is going to have a role on the major-league club come Opening Day next season. A lot of that will likely depend on the health of some of their currently injured starting pitchers, as well as how they feel about some of their prospect arms that are on the cusp of being major-league ready. I would lean towards Elder being around in 2027 because the Braves do like him, but I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee.

The other four, whether they are non-tendered or not, are very unlikely to have much of an impact on the Braves’ 2027 team.

Luke Williams has been around the club for the last several years, offering quality speed and positional versatility. For $900k, I could see the Braves holding onto him for organizational depth purposes.

James Karinchak appeared in nine games for the Braves, and his 1.86 ERA suggests he’s definitely worth $1.1 million. However, it’s evident the Braves never really saw much in him given how little they used him.

Joey Wentz tore his ACL during Spring Training, so the decision on him will likely come down to health.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Ray Kerr delivered again as an opener, as the aura around his path to this point continues to grow. Michael Harris II keeps cementing himself as a postseason demon, adding three more hits to his tally this October, giving him eight in just five games. And 21-year-old Didier Fuentes announced himself to the world, recording 11 straight outs over the final four innings against one of the greatest lineups ever assembled to help seal the victory.

It’s all setting up perfectly for the Braves, who will have Chris Sale ready to roll for Game 3 as the series shifts back to Truist Park. However, one aspect of that Game 2 win that’s probably getting overlooked is Robert Suarez looking like the guy who recorded a 0.56 ERA over his first 31 appearances before an elbow injury shut him down for the next few months.

The two-time All-Star still clearly isn’t 100%. The Braves aren’t going to be able to rely on him as much as they’d like in this series, in order to ensure he stays healthy. But from an effectiveness standpoint, it feels like he can be trusted in the biggest moments again.

Walt Weiss turned to him on Sunday night in the fifth inning with a one-run lead, nobody out, and runners standing on first and second. If Suarez had allowed just one run to score, the Braves probably would have taken it no questions asked, especially given where the Dodgers were in the lineup. Instead, he set down Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez in order while keeping the lead intact.

That was arguably the most pivotal point in the entire ballgame, and Suarez continuously pounded the zone with 100-plus MPH fastballs to get the job done. It was by far the best he’s looked since the injury, and while the Braves will have to be cautious about where he’s used, Walt Weiss now has one of his most powerful weapons back at his disposal whenever he needs him most over these final three games.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Grant Holmes has made two relief appearances but hasn’t provided much length, failing to even complete an inning in Sunday’s win over the Dodgers. It’s evident the Braves don’t trust him very much, and the odds of that changing as the competition ramps up are highly unlikely.

So can Atlanta really keep this going with just Sale and Mahle? Recent history suggests it’s possible, with the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers serving as a very comparable example.

“The Dodgers two years ago. Remember? … Their starting pitching was decimated by injuries and they had all these relievers step up and absorb a lot of innings, exactly where the Braves are right now,” MLB insider Buster Olney pointed out in a recent interview with 680 The Fan. “This has been done before. You can win with two starting pitchers, three starting pitchers in the postseason if you have a lights-out bullpen.”

It’s ironic the Dodgers had to navigate an entire postseason with just two reliable starting pitchers, because they’d spent a ton on starting pitching. They all just happened to be unavailable once the postseason arrived, which forced their bullpen to cover 57.8% of the innings during their 2024 World Series run.

So not only can it happen, but this is how baseball has shifted dramatically over the years. Sure, the current-day Dodgers are an outlier, featuring a rotation consisting of five All-Stars — but they are the outlier. Most clubs are relying on bullpens to cover the bulk of the innings these days, including several of the clubs still standing in the Division Series.

The formula for getting 27 outs doesn’t all have to be the same. Some clubs have several elite starters who can carry the load, and others rely heavily on a plethora of relievers who can create difficult matchups throughout nine innings. That’s exactly what the Braves have done over the first five games.

Atlanta has a slew of high-leverage arms that are built for high-pressure situations, but what’s standing out early on is the guys behind them. Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd aren’t household names, but they’ve both been incredible for the Braves all season and are now showing up on the biggest stage. That’s how deep this group is, and when you pair that with the likes of Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle, there are enough guys for Walt Weiss to turn to for 27 outs on any given night.

How far the Braves advance really comes down to their ability to score runs against some of the best arms in the game. Atlanta’s pitching staff has carried this club for nearly the entire season, and there’s nothing to suggest that’s changing now.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

#Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is dealing with a sprained ankle that gives him only an outside chance to play Sunday against the #Falcons, sources say.

Jackson could end up missing multiple games based on how rehab goes, but the injury is not considered long-term or surgical. pic.twitter.com/pIKU5IfA3J

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 6, 2026

Based on how the Falcons have performed over the past two weeks — beating the Saints and Packers each by 21 points on the road — there probably aren’t too many people around Flowery Branch concerned about who’s starting for the Ravens this Sunday. If the Falcons play like they have been, there’s not much Baltimore can do about the result that’s coming on national television, in front of what should be one of the more raucous environments we’ve seen at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a long time.

However, it goes without saying that beating the Ravens with Tyler Huntley is a much easier task than dealing with the two-time MVP in Lamar Jackson. He gives Baltimore a fantastic chance to win every time he takes the field, so his status will be something we’ll be monitoring closely throughout the week.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. got whatever they wanted on the ground, rushing for over 200 yards with five touchdowns. Michael Penix Jr. added another touchdown through the air in what was yet another incredibly efficient performance for the third-year starting quarterback. And Atlanta’s defense was once again suffocating. The pressure on Tyler Shough never allowed him to get comfortable, and the Saints managed only 50 rushing yards on 19 carries.

That’s the type of formula that’s going to win the Falcons a lot of football games this season, but one concern as we start to get into the meat of the schedule is the injuries. Atlanta was without a ton of key pieces on Monday night, and two more starters left the game in Jake Matthews and Za’Darius Smith without returning.

Matthews, who has made 199 consecutive starts for the Falcons at left tackle, is dealing with a groin injury. He was questionable to return after he exited before being downgraded to out, so there’s some hope it’s not something that will force him to miss too much time — especially given his pedigree as an ironman.

Smith left the game early and was eventually ruled out with a concussion. He’ll be in concussion protocol this week, but that didn’t stop him from celebrating with the team in the tunnel following the win — a good sign that he likely won’t have to miss much more time, if any at all.

Za'Darius Smith, you have a home in the A for life pic.twitter.com/4XcaLimrvD

— Carrie (@Carrie_ATL) October 6, 2026

In Matthews’ place, Michael Jerrell filled in at left tackle, and the Falcons’ offense didn’t miss a beat. It’s evident the kind of impact first-year offensive line coach Bill Callahan has had on this team, with everybody who’s been called upon seemingly ready to play. Jerrell likely gets the nod again if Matthews can’t play next Sunday night against the Ravens.

The same can be said for the Falcons’ defensive front. Za’Darius Smith leads the team in sacks through four games with 2.5, but there was absolutely zero drop-off when he left the game. With Jalon Walker out for the season and James Pearce Jr. serving an eight-game suspension, this is a position group that came into the season really thin on paper. However, guys have stepped up across the board, and as long as Smith doesn’t miss too much time, this isn’t something the Falcons should be overly concerned about moving forward.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

It’s a best-case scenario for Atlanta, and one that Jesse Rogers of ESPN does not believe the Dodgers will be able to overcome.

“Walt Weiss’ master strategy of holding back Chris Sale will pay off in Game 3 and then the weight of the world will be on the Dodgers for Game 4,” Rogers wrote. “It’ll end there. Then, they’ll start to show their age while the lockout next season prevents them from managing their oft-injured pitchers properly this winter or in a normal spring training. Adding insult to injury, River Ryan and Zyhir Hope star for the Tigers as the Dodgers’ dynasty comes to an abrupt halt. You asked for bold … right?”

Now, the theme of this piece from ESPN was bold predictions the rest of the way, so perhaps Rogers was being a little harsh on the Dodgers’ chances. But the Braves have put themselves in a position every team in the league would dream of when it comes to toppling the two-time defending champions.

Chris Sale has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons, and this year might have been his best, recording a 2.16 ERA with 200 strikeouts over 27 starts. He also led all of baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio, walks per nine innings, and home runs allowed per nine innings. There’s nobody you’d rather have in this moment than Chris Sale, and he’ll be doing it in front of a raucous home environment at Truist Park that smells the blood of a dying empire in the water. If the Braves can find a way to get a lead early in Game 3, you have to like their chances of advancing.

However, it’s still the Dodgers. This is one of the best lineups ever put together. Even if they’ve struggled collectively recently, all it takes is one game for them to flip the switch on their way to a third World Series title in a row. It also doesn’t hurt that they have Yoshinobu Yamamoto ready to go in Game 3, Tyler Glasnow set up for Game 4, and Tarik Skubal for Game 5 if the series heads back to Los Angeles.

It’s a bit too early to pop champagne bottles in Atlanta, but the Braves have a legitimate shot at stopping this dynasty in its tracks — and that’s all you could have asked for a few days ago.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Against the Steelers and Panthers, Atlanta’s defense held its own for the most part. Neither team could run the ball on Atlanta, and if the offense didn’t turn the ball over a hundred times against Carolina, that score would have at least been respectable. Instead Cooper Rush looked like a high school quarterback dressed up as an NFL player for Halloween. He legitimately could not throw the ball 25 yards past the line of scrimmage, giving the Falcons zero hope from the moment they stepped on the field.

When Penix returned in Week 3, the switch flipped, and it’s done so in a way that should strike fear into the rest of the league. The mere threat of a passing attack has opened things up for Bijan Robinson, who only needs a little bit of space to make defenses pay again, and again, and again. Following another performance with north of 140 yards on the ground and two scores, he now has 339 rushing yards with four touchdowns over the last two weeks — a clear frontrunner for the Offensive Player of the Year award.

But it’s not just the Falcons’ ground game that’s flourishing. Under the guidance of new head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, Michael Penix Jr. looks like an above-average quarterback. He’s completing over 73% of his passes, and outside of a shaky first quarter in his first game back against the Packers, he’s been basically perfect, getting the ball out on time and never putting it in harm’s way. His 83 QBR on the season is the fourth-best mark in the entire league, behind only Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, and Dak Prescott.

The Packers and Saints don’t have all-world defenses, but the Falcons’ offense has now scored 80 points over the last two weeks on the road in primetime. It doesn’t matter if they were playing the Georgia Bulldogs — that’s impressive, especially considering this is Penix’s first two games back from a torn ACL in a completely new offensive system. What happens when he starts feeling more comfortable? Nobody outside of Atlanta wants to see that.

However, for as good as the offense has been, the defense seems to have the bones of something even more special. The Falcons were a team that could get after the passer a season ago, finishing second in the league in sacks. But they were consistently gashed on the ground.

That’s no longer the case. Atlanta came into Monday night’s matchup first in rush defense, allowing fewer than 50 yards per game on the ground, and nothing changed against the Saints, who rushed for just 50 yards on 19 carries — averaging 2.6 yards per attempt.

And the Falcons are still getting after the passer just fine. Even if the sack numbers aren’t there yet, that’s a deceiving stat. A more indicative number of how effective teams are at making quarterbacks’ lives a living hell is pressure — and Atlanta currently ranks second in pressure rate.

Want me to keep going with the impressive numbers? I know you do. A season ago, the Falcons were getting a lot of their sacks from creative blitzes by defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. They didn’t have the manpower to get home with four, so Ulbrich went into his bag early and often, blitzing the second-most of any team in the league. He hasn’t had to do that this season. The Falcons are generating all of this pressure despite blitzing the 30th-most of any team — and they’re doing it without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. Just imagine what this defense could look like a month from now, when Pearce returns from suspension.

Through four weeks, Atlanta has an elite defense and can run the ball as well as anyone in the league. They are outrushing teams by more than 130(!) yards per game, and they spent the first two weeks with a third-string quarterback under center. That is the picture-perfect formula for winning games at this level, especially now that they are getting more than competent quarterback play.

The scoreboard week-to-week can oftentimes lie. But the Falcons aren’t thriving off turnovers or other teams’ mistakes. They are physically imposing their will on every team that steps between the white lines against them. That’s something we haven’t been able to say about the team in Atlanta for decades, and it makes them one of the scariest teams to play in the National Football League

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Game 3. #LetItFly pic.twitter.com/qEtGsjSSjq

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 6, 2026

It’s a very interesting construction against the right-handed Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ha-Seong Kim is back in at shortstop, with Sean Murphy serving as the designated hitter — two guys the Braves have typically avoided using against righties.

The reason for this is that Yamamoto is a slight reverse-splits guy on the mound. He’s dominant against just about everyone, but left-handed batters have hit just .175 against him for his career with a .503 OPS. Conversely, right-handed hitters are hitting .209 with a .623 OPS.

There are no great options against a guy like that, but Walt Weiss appears to be playing the numbers instead of the traditional lefty/righty matchups. For the postseason, Sean Murphy is 2-for-7 with a home run, a double, and two walks. Kim is still looking for his first hit of the playoffs, but he has coaxed a couple of walks over seven plate appearances.

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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Bijan Robinson is the frontrunner for the Offensive Player of the Year award, recording 339 yards on the ground with four touchdowns over the past two weeks. Brian Robinson Jr. has been a wonderful complement in the backfield as well, and the return of Michael Penix Jr. has really opened things up for star wide receiver Drake London and the passing attack.

Most everybody who watches the NFL knows about the Falcons’ star power on that side of the ball. But the most impressive aspect of Atlanta through four weeks has been the defense. This is a group that ranks first against the run, allowing fewer than 50 yards on the ground per game, and second in pressure rate. That’s pretty incredible considering they’re doing it without Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr., and A.J. Terrell — three of the best players on the defense coming into the season.

There aren’t many players on this unit who are household names, but if these performances keep up, they will be soon.

Cameron Thomas

After spending last season as a reserve for the Cleveland Browns, Cameron Thomas followed Kevin Stefanski to Atlanta on a one-year deal worth just over $3 million. That’s the type of contract fringe roster players often sign, but due to injuries and the suspension handed to James Pearce Jr., Thomas has filled in as the starter and is earning himself a ton of money. Through four weeks, he has 13 pressures — the 17th-most of any EDGE defender — eight quarterback hits, already a career high, and 1.5 sacks. Thomas is a primary reason Atlanta’s defensive front has been among the best in football through four weeks.

C.J. Henderson

When A.J. Terrell went on Injured Reserve, alarm bells went off for everybody who has watched this team over the last five years. He’s the Falcons’ best cover corner, and depth at the position has never been a strength.

However, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich staunchly defended C.J. Henderson, and the veteran cornerback has responded with possibly the best play of his entire career. He already has six passes defended. Quarterbacks are completing just 50% of passes when targeting him for an 80.9 quarterback rating, and he forced a pivotal fumble in the first half of the Falcons’ win over the Saints. Not bad for a reserve cornerback, who could continue starting even when Terrell returns from injury.

Harold Perkins Jr.

Harold Perkins Jr. — a sixth-round pick out of LSU — is slowly working himself onto the field more, and it culminated on Monday night against his hometown Saints, as he recorded 10 tackles, 0.5 sacks, and a pass defended in the win. He’s someone who’s clearly earning the trust of the coaching staff with each passing week, seeing the field on more than 65% of the defensive snaps over the past two games and providing a lot of value in passing situations where his versatility can really shine.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

ESPN just released its latest NFL power rankings following Monday Night Football, with the Falcons walloping the Saints by 21 points in their own building. It’s the Falcons’ second straight primetime victory by 21 points, in which they’ve totaled 80 points on offense with eight touchdowns on the ground.

Atlanta has looked like one of the best teams in football since the return of Michael Penix Jr. in Week 3, so clearly ESPN’s latest edition of its NFL power rankings will reflect that, right?

How about 25th.

“The first two weeks of the season were absolutely disastrous,” Falcons beat reporter Marc Raimondi writes. “Tua Tagovailoa sustained an oblique injury, and Michael Penix Jr. was not ready to return from his ACL injury. Third-string quarterback Cooper Rush was thrust into the starting role — with back spasms to boot — and the Falcons’ offense was hideous. They had a league-low 16 combined points in the first two weeks, going 27 straight series without taking a snap in the red zone. The latter was tied for the second-longest skid in 45 years. But with Penix back, Atlanta’s offense has scored 80 combined points in two weeks, the most in the NFL in that span.”

Now, I do want to make one thing clear: Marc Raimondi is not responsible for these power rankings. That responsibility belongs to what ESPN called more than a dozen NFL analysts. It’s nice that they keep it anonymous, because it’s obvious nobody on that panel watches much football.

The Atlanta Falcons were ranked right behind the 0-4 Houston Texans. But even more ridiculous, the Falcons find themselves two spots behind the Packers AND four spots behind the Saints.

How is that even possible? Those games were on national television, and it never once looked like Atlanta was playing the same sport as the other two. Those two games could be played 100 times anywhere on the planet right now, and the Falcons might win every single time. That’s how vast the gap is between Atlanta and Green Bay/New Orleans.

Additionally, the entire point of power rankings is to throw records out the window and really dive into how teams are playing at this very moment. One of the primary things they take into account is injuries.

The Falcons played the first two games of the season with a third-string quarterback who couldn’t throw the ball past the line of scrimmage. Those games should almost entirely be thrown out the window when talking about power rankings, because they don’t mean anything.

The Falcons still have a lot to prove going forward. Two good performances aren’t going to wash away what’s gone on over the last eight seasons — and nobody is more aware of that than Falcons fans.

But I can guarantee you one thing: the Falcons aren’t the 25th-best team in the NFL. Any NFL analyst who believes that should find a new hobby.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Bryce Elder hit the Injured List at the beginning of the month with a knee injury — one that required a minor surgery. He was out on the field today at Truist Park throwing live batting practice, but it still feels unlikely he returns unless the Braves make it to the NLCS.

Injured reliever Joe Jimenez was also throwing to live hitters at Truist Park on Monday. The once-shutdown setup man hasn’t pitched in a major-league game since 2024 after undergoing several knee surgeries. At one point not long ago, it seemed doubtful he’d ever pitch again, but he’s checked a lot of boxes throughout the season to get to a point where it feels like he’ll be on an MLB roster again — even if making an appearance in the playoffs is not something the Braves are seriously considering.

Martin Perez and Lane Thomas are also out for the Wild Card Series. Perez hit the Injured List last week with back inflammation. He’s not eligible to return until October 6th, but there’s hope he could be an option later in the postseason.

Thomas has been out since September 10th with an intercostal strain. His absence has left the Braves with a void in left field, one they’ll likely fill with a combination of Mauricio Dubon and Mike Yastrzemski until he’s deemed clear to play.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

Mauricio Dubon gets the nod in the cleanup spot with a left-handed starter on the mound in Jesus Luzardo. Drake Baldwin gets the start behind the plate instead of Sean Murphy, with Mike Yastrzemski as the designated hitter and Ha-Seong Kim playing shortstop and batting ninth.

Game 1. #LetItFly pic.twitter.com/pX5jhaa6ln

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 29, 2026

Based on how the season has transpired, the Braves don’t really have any good options when it comes to the bottom of the order. I probably would have expected Sean Murphy to start behind the plate because of his defense and potential upside offensively. He did have three hits in his final two appearances of the season, but it’s hard to really argue for a guy who hit just .182 this season with a .556 OPS.

Instead, the Braves will roll with Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop in the series opener. His struggles this season have been well-documented — hitting just .116 on the season — but he did show some clutch genetics over the last five weeks, coming up with multiple walk-off knocks. Perhaps Walt Weiss believes there’s some more magic in that bat with all the chips down, but this is a decision that will likely get scrutinized if it doesn’t work.

If it does work, though, and Ha-Seong Kim comes up with another critical base knock, Weiss is going to look like the Mad Hatter. It all goes down in about two-and-a-half hours.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

Everything started to shift the following Monday when it was announced Michael Penix Jr. would make his season debut. Then the Falcons went out and walloped the Packers by 21 points in front of a packed house at Lambeau Field, with Penix turning in one of the best performances of his young career.

To add even more enthusiasm, the rest of the NFC South would go on to lose on Sunday, putting Atlanta tied at the top of the division. The Falcons have new life, and there have been several standout performances through three weeks that provide optimism for the remainder of the season.

Falcons Standout Rookie Class

Despite not having a first-round pick this year, there was a lot of excitement about the Falcons’ rookie class following training camp, and the group has more than lived up to the billing through the first three weeks.

Avieon Terrell has started each of the first three games at cornerback. Quarterbacks have targeted him nine times and recorded just three completions for 38 yards and no touchdowns. The Falcons were without his brother, A.J. Terrell, against the Packers, and you couldn’t even tell the difference — a testament to the kind of secondary depth Atlanta hasn’t had in a long time.

Kendal Daniels — Atlanta’s fourth-round selection — has also started the first three games at linebacker and looks like someone who’s going to be a staple of the second level for a long time, recording 10 tackles and two tackles for loss. Harold Perkins has gotten a lot of run at linebacker as well after being selected in the sixth round. The Falcons clearly value the versatility he brings to the table on passing downs, as quarterbacks have just a 52.8 passer rating over the 11 times they’ve targeted him this season.

On the other side of the ball, Zachariah Branch really hasn’t gotten going offensively. However, it’s hard to put too much weight into what went down over the first couple of weeks with Cooper Rush under center. He should have a much bigger impact in that area moving forward, but even still, he’s played a significant role in the return game, averaging nearly 12.0 yards per punt return.

Michael Penix’s Week 3 Performance

Penix’s season debut against the Packers started in nightmare fashion, with a pick on his first drive. The following couple of possessions were also shaky, but from the second quarter on, that might have been the best we’ve ever seen him look.

He was getting the ball out on time and running the offense beautifully, finishing the night 17-for-20 for 254 yards and a touchdown when he wasn’t under pressure. That was good enough for an 84.9 QBR, the fourth-highest mark of any signal caller in Week 3.

Penix looked the part of a franchise quarterback, and he did it on national television after missing 10 months with an ACL injury. That should have Falcons fans excited about what’s to come.

The Defensive Line… Improved?

After decades of having a dormant pass rush, the Falcons did the impossible a season ago, finishing second in the league with 57 sacks. Despite that, the new front office completely revamped the interior defensive line, bringing in Gervon Dexter Sr. and Maason Smith to replace David Onyemata and Ruke Orhorhoro.

Those have proven to be massive upgrades, not only when it comes to rushing the passer but defending the run as well — an area where the Falcons struggled a year ago. Atlanta is in first by a mile when it comes to rush defense, allowing just 47.7 yards per game. They’ve still yet to surrender a rushing touchdown, and they rank third in the league in pass rush win rate.

The sample size remains small, and they’ll play some much better offenses in the coming weeks, but the signs suggest this defensive line is better than it was a year ago — and they’re doing all of it without James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker.

Walker won’t return this season after suffering a torn ACL, but Pearce has just five games remaining of his eight-game suspension. The Falcons’ defense could get real fun to watch when he returns.

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(Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Your 2026 Wild Card Series roster! pic.twitter.com/RKJ7kYjP4j

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 29, 2026

Rowdey Tellez and Luke Williams join the club as position players. With a designated hitter in a series like this, seeing much of them is highly unlikely.

But Tellez does offer some power from the left side off the bench and comes with some postseason experience. He hit two home runs against the Braves in the NLDS back in 2021. And Williams is another speedster the Braves could turn to late in the game. He also can play all over the diamond defensively.

On the pitching side of things, the one notable absence is AJ Smith-Shawver. He struggled as a starting pitcher after returning from Tommy John surgery. That forced a move to the bullpen, and after giving up three runs in three appearances, it’s not that surprising the Braves decided against including him for this series. In a five-game series, if the Braves advance, there’s much more of a reason to carry a high-powered arm like his that can go multiple innings.

The Wild Card Series kicks off in just over three hours, with Chris Sale toeing the rubber for the Braves and Jesus Luzardo getting the ball for the Phillies. It will be Luzardo’s first start since throwing a complete-game shutout against Atlanta on September 7th, after serving a short stint on the Injured List with shoulder inflammation.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

The Phillies are starting Aaron Nola in Game 3 of the Wild Card series vs. Atlanta tonight, per @MattGelb. pic.twitter.com/rRy4uck1zS

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) October 1, 2026

On the surface, this is a bit of a head-scratching decision. Wheeler has been the head of the Phillies staff for a long time, and he’s having another incredible season, posting a 14-5 record with an even 3.00 ERA.

Nola’s 2026 campaign, on the other hand, has been a roller-coaster ride. He began the year miserably, taking a 6.04 ERA into July. But over his next 14 starts, he posted a 2.92 ERA, including a couple of impressive outings against the Braves, allowing just three earned runs over 13.1 innings. However, over the final two starts of the regular season, he surrendered seven earned runs over seven innings.

So what you’re going to get out of Nola is anybody’s best guess. The Phillies are obviously confident he can handle a Braves lineup he’s had a lot of success against over his career, particularly in the postseason, where he’s allowed just two earned runs over 11.2 innings. However, that was a much more consistent version of Nola back in 2022 and 2023 than the one that exists now, which could present an opportunity for Atlanta to jump on Philadelphia early.

In a winner-take-all environment, I would imagine just about every pitcher who toes the rubber will be on a tight leash. One would expect we’ll see Zack Wheeler in this game eventually, especially with Don Mattingly showing he has very little confidence in any of his relief pitchers outside of Jhoan Duran.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

The Atlanta Braves had the world at their fingertips. Coming off a thrilling victory in Game 1, Tyler Mahle tossed a gem, allowing just one run — which came in the first inning — over seven innings. If there were any questions about him living up to the moment in the playoffs for the first time, or whether his success since coming to Atlanta was legitimate, they were answered in resounding fashion.

Mahle went step for step with Cristopher Sanchez the entire afternoon, and the Braves finally broke through in the seventh thanks to a couple of boneheaded defensive plays from Philadelphia, leading to two runs with the Phillies down to their last six outs.

But the bullpen — the strength of the Braves for the entire season — couldn’t get it done. For the second consecutive afternoon, Walt Weiss turned to Dylan Lee in a high-leverage spot against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. He handled it beautifully on Tuesday, but the Phillies’ stars were able to use that added information to their advantage on Wednesday, clobbering back-to-back homers deep into the Chop House seats.

A total disaster, and a decision that probably prevented Walt Weiss from getting much sleep last night, if he got any at all. For as good as Lee was in the first half of the season, he hasn’t been the same guy for a long time, recording a 5.90 ERA over 32 appearances dating back to July 2nd. Throwing him out there on consecutive days with the season on the line against two of the best playoff performers this game has ever seen is just asking for something bad to happen.

And to make matters worse: the Braves had a completely rested bullpen with everyone available. Weiss could have turned to Didier Fuentes, the club’s best reliever over the entire season. Or Robert Suarez, a two-time All-Star with loads of experience in big moments, even if he hasn’t pitched very much since coming back from injury. Or Dylan Dodd, the man who has actually been the Braves’ best lefty reliever over the last four months, posting a 2.54 ERA over 48 games. Hell, Weiss could have even turned to his closer, Raisel Iglesias, early, knowing it was the most important moment of the game, even if it was the eighth inning.

There’s no beating around the bush: it was an abysmal decision from the first-year manager in his first-ever playoff series. But if we’re pointing fingers for why we aren’t talking about the Dodgers right now, almost all of them should be aimed at the Braves’ offense.

This is a lineup that has massively underachieved over the last four months. They had a plethora of opportunities in front of a home crowd to blow the game wide open and turn Truist Park into a frenzy, and they came up short time and time again, leaving 11 runners on base. This game should have been 7-1 by the time Harper and Schwarber stepped to the plate in the eighth inning.

The Braves offense just cannot produce consistently enough when they’re presented with scoring opportunities. It’s a feast-or-famine bunch, and every time October arrives, it bites them in the ass. The Braves played with their food, and they are once again paying the price. Do it again tonight, and there likely will be some uncomfortable conversations had this offseason. Because what we’ve seen from these guys in the postseason is just not good enough, and we have a five-year sample size that shows it is not working.

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Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

The script couldn’t have been written any better by the folks in Hollywood. Riley, who’s amid by far the worst season of his career, delivering a moment in front of the home fans that could end up saving the Braves’ season.

But the job isn’t finished yet. The bulk of the Phillies’ rotation was unavailable after pitching over the weekend to get them into the postseason. That won’t be the case the rest of the way — one of the many storylines that will define this Wild Card Series.

Will the Braves’ Stars Show Up?

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the Braves’ win over the Phillies on Monday is that they did it without any production from their three best hitters. Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Matt Olson were lined up at the top of the order — and they combined to go 0-for-11 with three strikeouts.

The Braves survived mostly thanks to Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II. Harris had three hits — all singles. Albies brought in a run with a triple in the sixth inning, then coaxed a critical walk in the eighth, which set the table for Riley’s game-winning three-run blast.

These are all really good players who have had a lot of success over their careers. It’s very possible they find a different gear and are the difference in October. But Albies and Riley haven’t been consistent enough over the last two seasons to believe that’s going to happen every day. The Braves need their stars to show up in big moments if they want to close out this series.

Will Jhoan Duran Be Available for Game 2?

All Braves fans are talking about on this fine Wednesday morning is the heroics from Austin Riley — but there’s always a flip side to every coin. Don Mattingly made the questionable decision to send out his closer, Jhoan Duran, for the super-unconventional nine-out save with a one-run lead, and it backfired. Not only did the Braves win, but Duran threw 30 pitches, bringing into question just how much he can offer if things get tight in Game 2.

Because the Phillies are on the brink of elimination, it would be surprising not to see Duran at all on Wednesday. But this is a bullpen that’s already littered with questions, which is why he was out there for a nine-out save in the first place. Now they have another one, where the answer might not be unveiled until it’s too late.

Was Tyler Mahle’s Success a Charade?

For the Braves, this is one of the biggest storylines of the entire postseason. They’ve been lacking starting pitching depth all year, and the rotation took an even bigger hit over the final month with both Bryce Elder and Martin Perez going on the IL. At this point, it’s basically Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, and figure it the hell out. Atlanta needs Mahle to be the guy he was in the regular season after the Braves acquired him at the trade deadline, posting a 1.99 ERA over nine starts — the best of any trade deadline acquisition.

However, things are a lot different this time of year, and Mahle has never experienced October baseball before. So what version are the Braves going to get? The guy who had a 1.99 ERA for the Braves this year, or the one who posted a 5.13 ERA with the Giants? We’ll have a much better idea in about seven hours.

Who Will the Phillies Start in Game 3?

The Phillies will turn to Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2, one of the best pitchers in the game over the last three seasons. They should feel confident about their chances of forcing a winner-take-all Game 3, where Mattingly will have to make another difficult decision between Zack Wheeler on short rest or Aaron Nola on full rest.

Nola has bounced back really nicely over the second half of the season, and he’s had a ton of success against the Braves in the playoffs when the teams met in 2022 and 2023. However, this decision doesn’t seem nearly as difficult as some of the others Mattingly will have to make.

The answer is Zack Wheeler. He’s been the ace of the Phillies’ staff for over a half-decade, a guy who’s produced nearly every time he’s been called upon in big moments. If this series does get to Thursday, expect to see him toe the rubber with an opportunity for the Phillies to bounce the Braves out of the playoffs for the third time in five years.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

Major League Baseball was nice enough to give the 94-win Braves the 2:00 PM time slot against the division-rival Phillies — a decision they’re probably regretting right about now. Because it’s highly unlikely any of the three remaining Wild Card Series deliver like Atlanta and Philadelphia did in Game 1.

The series began with one very significant question: who would the Phillies turn to in Game 1 after exhausting almost their entire rotation just trying to get to the playoffs?

Don Mattingly answered that with Jesus Luzardo — one of the best pitchers in baseball, but a guy who hadn’t made a start since September 7th due to a stint on the IL with shoulder inflammation.

It didn’t look like it bothered him too much. Chris Sale gave up the first run of the game in the very first inning, when Alec Bohm laced a high-90s heater over Michael Harris II’s head, bringing in Kyle Schwarber. The Braves would then answer in the second with a run of their own, thanks to a two-out single off the bat of Mike Yastrzemski. But after that, the teams traded zeros for a while.

Luzardo would exit ahead of the sixth inning, and that’s when things got real interesting. Ozzie Albies gave the Braves the lead with a one-out triple that just missed leaving the ballpark, scoring Michael Harris II. But it felt like Atlanta left one on the board that could come back to haunt them when they failed to bring Albies in — especially when the Phillies added two runs in the seventh on another triple, this time from JT Realmuto with two outs.

Both runs were charged to Chris Sale, who left the game with runners on first and third for Didier Fuentes. The rookie was able to get Justin Crawford to pop out, but the veteran Realmuto came through as he has so many times before against the Braves in October.

The building got even more tense when Mattingly then made a decision that could be talked about for a long time in Philadelphia if they go on to lose this series, bringing in closer Jhoan Duran in the seventh inning, hoping he could get the next nine outs.

For a while, it looked like a stroke of genius. Duran set down Dominic Smith, Drake Baldwin, and Ronald Acuña Jr. in order. He then made quick work of Matt Olson and Mauricio Dubon. Through the first five batters he faced, Duran had thrown only 15 pitches.

But a Michael Harris II infield single changed everything — one of his three hits on the afternoon. Ozzie Albies followed it up by coaxing a rare walk, bringing up Austin Riley with a chance to make everybody forget about the worst season of his career.

A moment he did not let go to waste.

AUSTIN RILEY
GO-AHEAD THREE-RUN HOMER
ATLANTA IS GOING WILD pic.twitter.com/XrPQnazvVO

— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2026

There were a lot of Braves who underachieved in 2026, most of them on the offensive side of things, but nobody was criticized more than Austin Riley. Atlanta’s third baseman and the highest-paid player in franchise history hit just .219 with 19 home runs. He also struck out 201 times, becoming one of just three players to finish a season with more than 200 strikeouts and fewer than 20 long balls.

None of that matters tonight. Tonight, he’s a hero, delivering the type of hit that can change the entire course of the season.

Teams that fall behind in the Wild Card Series since it moved to three games have advanced just one time out of sixteen tries. And with Sale on the mound, this felt like a game the Braves had to have if they wanted to move on and face the Dodgers in the NLDS — especially with Cristopher Sanchez getting the ball in Game 2 for the Phillies, and Zack Wheeler likely available for a winner-take-all Game 3.

The advantage is with the good guys, but there’s still work to be done for this core group to get the postseason monkey off its back.

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Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Ray Kerr is starting tonight.

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) October 1, 2026

Coming off injury, Kerr didn’t get a lot of work this season, only tossing 18.1 innings. But the results were nearly flawless, as he gave up only three runs, good for a 1.47 ERA. Two of those outings also came against the Phillies, in which he tossed 6.1 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits with five strikeouts.

That was enough to earn Walt Weiss’ trust, as he’s turning to the lefty in hopes of getting through Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber the first time through the order. In a perfect world, Weiss would probably like to lean on Kerr to do that twice, but perfect worlds don’t often exist in winner-take-all environments.

Kerr has gone at least three innings four times out of his nine appearances this season, so he’s capable of giving the Braves some length if his success against the Phillies from the regular season carries over into the playoffs.

After Kerr, it’s anybody’s best guess. Grant Holmes is an option if the Braves need some length, but this feels like a situation where Weiss is just going to have to feel things out and trust his gut. Atlanta’s bullpen — despite its struggles in Games 1 and 2 — has been a strength all season. And it hasn’t been asked to do much through the first two games, with both Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle making it through more than six innings each.

In fact, the Braves have only had to use three relievers the entire series — Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes, and Raisel Iglesias. That will allow Weiss to lean on some other arms that have had really good years — like Dylan Dodd, Brent Suter, and Robert Suarez — if he wants to make this a full bullpen game.

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Photo: IMAGO / Newscom World

Bijan Robinson and Drake London both received top-of-market deals this offseason. That was going to happen no matter who was in charge, with Robinson being the best running back in the league and London establishing himself as a top-10 wide receiver. But the Falcons also made Matthew Bergeron the highest-paid guard in football, and he’s nowhere close to the top player at his position, suggesting they really don’t care about outside opinions. They’re going to trust their gut when it comes to players inside the building.

Now they’ve done it again, handing defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. a massive four-year contract extension worth $78 million, with $46.5 million in guarantees.

Falcons DT Gervon Dexter is signing a four-year, $78 million extension that includes $46.5 million guaranteed, per his agents Drew and Jason Rosenhaus. Atlanta traded for Dexter on August 30, and now is signing him to an extension one month later. pic.twitter.com/O1OXYtBy8I

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 30, 2026

Dexter was acquired by the Falcons in August for Clark Phillips III and a fifth-round pick, as the team really got aggressive in rebuilding its interior defensive line during the offseason.

The results have spoken for themselves throughout the first three weeks. Atlanta’s pass rush has actually improved from a pressure standpoint over a year ago, when they had 57 sacks — the second-most in the league. And they’re doing it without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.

Dexter is a primary reason for that, leading all defensive tackles in pressure rate (20.5%) and sitting sixth in pressures (15).

“Gervon is a young, ascending talent whose power, disruption and impact along the defensive line are difficult to find,” Ian Cunningham said, via the team’s website. “What’s been just as impressive is the growth he’s shown off the field as a man and a father. His passion for the game and commitment to his teammates are qualities we value highly, and we’re excited to keep him as an important part of our defense moving forward. I also want to thank Drew and Jason Rosenhaus for their communication and partnership throughout this process.”

The Falcons will face some much better offenses moving forward, starting with the Saints on Monday Night Football. But through three weeks, it’s tough to find a defensive front that’s been more disruptive, and what makes it all the more tantalizing is the age of the players the Falcons are getting production from.

Dexter is 24 years old. Maason Smith is 23, and Brandon Dorlus is 25. Add in James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker when they return, and this group is set up for success for a very long time. That’s something we haven’t been able to say about the Falcons in multiple decades.

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Photo: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

We did get good news rather quickly. The Braves announced during the game that X-rays were negative, and another report from after the game said that the CT scan was also negative. But sitting just a week away from the start of the postseason, there was still some level of concern.

That looks to be put to bed with this latest report from Mark Bowman, who says Acuña was ready to play tonight but the Braves wanted to give him the day off. He’ll likely be back in the lineup tomorrow.

It’s been another roller-coaster season for Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s spent two different stints on the Injured List, costing him more than 50 games, and even when he’s been in the lineup, he hasn’t looked quite like himself for most of the season.

That changed around a month ago. Over his last 23 games, he’s hitting .368 with seven home runs, easily the best of anybody in the Braves’ lineup. Acuña is looking like the guy who won the NL MVP back in 2023 again, and for as much as Atlanta’s offense has struggled for long stretches this season, they could ill afford to lose that kind of production heading into October.

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(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Coming off their first missed postseason since 2017, there were plenty of concerns about how this team would bounce back with a new manager after Brian Snitker decided to hang it up. Those concerns were only exacerbated by injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, and Spencer Strider during Spring Training.

Inside the clubhouse, however, there was never a sign of panic. The Braves claimed the NL East lead on April 10th and burst out to the best record in baseball through the first two months. Up until June, everything was clicking, but chinks in the armor eventually began to show.

Injuries continued to take their toll on the rotation, and then the bullpen lost one of its top guys in Robert Suarez, who didn’t make his return to the mound until last night. But surprisingly, it was the offense that was primarily responsible for the Braves’ lulls over the final four months.

Austin Riley never could quite find his footing — something he’s still trying to figure out in a hurry before postseason baseball begins next week. Ronald Acuña Jr. missed more than 50 games, Drake Baldwin missed a month, Sean Murphy missed damn near the entire season, and Ozzie Albies fell off a cliff following a hot start.

It wasn’t exactly a formula for an NL East title. Yet every time it felt like the wheels were about to come off, they’d pull it together and go on a run, keeping the Phillies at arm’s length the entire way before clinching the division with a week to play.

The Braves haven’t been an elite baseball team from a record or statistical standpoint for quite some time. On paper, their rotation should be one of the worst in the league, and basically everybody has already written off their chances come October — most didn’t even think they’d make it there. The fact that they are is a testament to the resolve of the entire group.

They never stopped finding ways to grind out wins, and when the dust settles, they’ll likely have 95 under their belt — the fourth-best record in Major League Baseball.

For that reason, ESPN gave Atlanta an A-grade for its regular season performance.

“More steady than dominant, the Braves built an early lead in the NL East but appeared vulnerable at times to the Phillies catching them — a lead that was as large as 10½ games on May 22 got as low as two games — but Atlanta beat Philadelphia four out of seven games in September to essentially wrap up the division,” David Schoenfield writes.

“Huge shoutout to Chris Sale, who carried a rotation that received just eight starts from Spencer Strider and none from Spencer Schwellenbach. Grant Holmes and Martin Perez also stepped up, while trade addition Tyler Mahle has been the best pickup of the deadline. Alongside Sale, the bullpen has been the team’s MVP, with the highest win probability added in the majors.”

The Braves’ ragtag bunch of arms rarely wavered the entire season. The bullpen was among the best in baseball from start to finish, featuring an incredible breakout campaign from rookie Didier Fuentes — possibly the most underrated reliever in the sport right now.

But not enough can be said about the likes of Grant Holmes, Martin Perez, and Bryce Elder. These were fringe roster guys who stepped up and are the only reason the Braves are thinking about October. Without them, it’s another long offseason of reviewing what went wrong.

Some grief can be thrown Alex Anthopoulos’ way for his lack of aggressiveness last winter and at the trade deadline. It’s fair to say this team has holes he could have addressed, but this regular season grade isn’t about him. It’s about the 26 guys in the clubhouse and the 20 more who made an appearance throughout the season. This roster had no business winning the division with the injuries taken into account, and they did so rather easily — a huge testament to Walt Weiss, who should receive strong consideration for NL Manager of the Year honors.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

The All-Star reliever hadn’t pitched in a major-league game since the middle of June, and had only pitched in one game, period, since then — a one-inning relief appearance for the Gwinnett Stripers last weekend. It wasn’t a clean outing on Wednesday night. In fact, Suarez actually gave up the go-ahead run after surrendering a triple to the first batter he faced. But he was able to limit the damage to just the one run, setting down the next three batters in order.

And most encouraging? Suarez was lighting up the radar gun at 99 MPH.

There’s obviously still some rust the veteran must overcome, and unfortunately, he doesn’t have much time to do so before the damage really starts to count. Walt Weiss said before the game that Suarez will make one more appearance on Saturday prior to the Wild Card Series, but from the eye test his first time out, the stuff is difficult to differentiate from what we saw earlier in the season. It looks like the Braves got back an incredible weapon at just the right time.

On the offensive side of things, Austin Riley and Matt Olson both hit solo shots, leading to a 2-2 game going into extras. Brent Suter was able to set down the Reds in order in the top half of the inning, continuing his stellar work since the Braves acquired him at the trade deadline, and then Mauricio Dubon finished the job with a high-bouncing chopper that never even passed the mound but was enough to bring in the speedy DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

But the most impressive thing about Wednesday night — shockingly — was Chris Sale putting the cherry on top of his incredible 2026 campaign. The 37-year-old was making his final start of the season — a tune-up before he takes the mound in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. Expectations were that he would go through the motions for four or five innings to stay loose, but there’s no such thing as 90% when Chris Sale has the ball in his hand.

He wound up throwing 97 pitches, finishing 5.2 innings of one-run ball, and his last pitch was a strikeout, giving him a clean 200 punchouts on the campaign.

Sale’s final numbers for the season are simply absurd, finishing with a 2.16 ERA and leading the league in BB/9, HR/9, and K/BB ratio. He had 200 strikeouts compared to just 31 walks — nonsensical numbers for a third season in a row, all of which came after the rest of the league had deemed him finished due to a wide array of injuries. There was no better way for him to finish things off, but the real fun begins next week, when Sale takes the mound in a playoff game for the first time as a member of the Braves.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

However, the first two weeks came with third-string quarterback Cooper Rush under center. Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his season debut against the Packers, which should jolt some life into the entire team. There are also several stats that suggest this could be a much more interesting matchup than people might expect.

Atlanta Falcons — The Kings Of Primetime

I discussed it earlier in the week, but even though the Falcons have missed out on postseason play in each of the last two seasons, one area where they have thrived is in these primetime matchups. They went 4-1 on the national stage a year ago and are 7-3 over the last two seasons.

Of course, whether that stat means anything heading into this matchup could be picked apart, but this one is much more interesting. Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 on Thursday Night Football, with four of those victories coming after he lost the previous game.

That’s not just a random number. Kevin Stefanski wasn’t coaching a powerhouse out in Cleveland. He was an underdog in most every matchup, so the fact that his teams are undefeated when dealing with short weeks is a strong indication that he’s figured out how to approach things when there’s not as much time to game plan. We’ll see if the trends continue tomorrow.

A Mismatch In The Trenches

The Falcons’ embarrassing performances have allowed a lot of other teams that have underperformed through the first two weeks to fly under the radar. The Packers are one of those teams. They were embarrassed by the Vikings in Week 1, who were playing with backup quarterback Carson Wentz, and then narrowly escaped with a three-point victory in overtime against the Jets.

Green Bay has been a surprisingly terrible team to start the season, and a lot of the problems stem from the offensive line. They rank dead last in rush yards per game and are also last in pass block win rate (18%). That’s a massive matchup advantage for the Falcons, who have been very good across the defensive front even without James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker.

A primary reason for that has been a much more stout interior presence. The additions of guys like Maason Smith and Gervon Dexter Sr. have proven to be massive upgrades, as the group leads the NFL in pressures with 23. This matchup could prove to be the difference in the game, even if all the focus is on the quarterback position.

Tired Teams On Short Weeks

This isn’t gambling advice, but take it how you will. Teams that exhausted a lot of energy the week prior typically do not perform well on short weeks. Last week, the Packers went into overtime on the road and squeaked out a win over the Jets. Over the last 20 matchups on Thursday Night Football where a team went into overtime the previous week, those teams are 2-18 ATS.

And you don’t have to look far to find a previous example. One occurred just last week with the Lions, who beat the Saints in overtime in Week 1 and followed it up with a blowout loss to the Bills. The Packers are listed as 4.5-point favorites in this game, so they could still win and not cover, but this trend suggests it will at least be a very close game.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

The good news is that the best bet came through again, with South Alabama (barely) covering as a four-point home favorite against Ohio. Week 4 now brings what looks to be the most exciting Saturday slate we’ve had so far this season. There are a lot of games I like, so I’ll try to narrow the board down to my favorites. Here’s what I’ve got.

2026 record: 7-4

Wake Forest +14 at Louisville

I’ve had this spot circled since June. For starters, there is a legitimate matchup case for Wake being able to hang around. Louisville’s pass defense has been leaky early in the season, giving up 41 to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU, but if Kevin Jennings hadn’t fumbled going into the end zone late, the Mustangs very well could have scored 38.

Wake Forest has enough juice offensively to take advantage. The Demon Deacons can push the ball down the field with Gio Lopez and one of the ACC’s more underrated receivers, Carlos Hernandez. Louisville does have an excellent pass rush led by Clev Lubin and A.J. Green, but its run defense hasn’t been impressive, particularly when it comes to stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage. Wake doesn’t need to dominate on the ground; it just needs a few yards to keep the passing downs manageable.

Don’t get me wrong, Louisville is going to move the football too. The Cardinals’ rushing attack behind the Brown brothers has taken this offense to another level, and I expect plenty of points in this game. But catching two touchdowns with two offenses capable of scoring quickly means the backdoor is always open for Wake Forest.

The biggest reason I’ve wanted Wake in this spot is because of how horrible Jeff Brohm’s Louisville teams have looked in spots like this in years prior. Everybody knows how dangerous Brohm is as an underdog, but Louisville has repeatedly turned into a pumpkin in the favorite role, particularly after big wins.

Louisville went just 1-7 ATS as a home favorite last season! After an important road win at Pitt, the Cardinals returned home and lost outright as a seven-point favorite against Virginia. A few weeks later, after upsetting Miami, Louisville came out extremely flat as 24-point favorites against 1-7 Boston College, and was still in a seven-point game with roughly two minutes left.

The best example is when Louisville won on the road at Virginia Tech, and with Clemson waiting on deck, the Cards lost 29-26 to Cal as an 18.5-point favorite.

Now the Cardinals are coming off a major win against SMU and walk right into a sleepy noon kickoff at home against what I expect to be a hungry Demon Deacons team. It is exactly the kind of spot where Louisville has struggled to bring the same energy it shows in its biggest games.

Wake also played Friday night last week, giving the Demon Deacons one additional day to prepare. Under Brohm, Louisville is 5-7 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. It’s just another small factor pointing in Wake’s favor.

My power ratings make this Louisville -11.5, so I see a couple of points of value on top of a golden opportunity to fade Jeff Brohm in a spot where his teams have consistently struggled and come out flat. The backdoor will always be open in this game, but I think Wake is capable of making Louisville sweat for four quarters.

Oklahoma State +2.5 at West Virginia

This line has moved around all week, but I’ll take what’s available at the time of writing. I make Oklahoma St -2 in this matchup, so that’s enough value for me to grab the Pokes as a short road dog.

I was spot-on with my West Virginia rating last week against Virginia, and even after upgrading the Mountaineers following that upset win, I still can’t get all the way to making them favored here. I was impressed with West Virginia. Michael Hawkins has been electric, Cam Cook gives them a legitimate bellcow in the backfield, and the passing game made more plays than I expected against a Virginia secondary I liked coming into the season.

But this is also a tricky spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are riding high after a big rivalry win, while Oklahoma State practically had a bye last week. The Pokes rested starters throughout the second half of their 59-0 win over Murray State, and I’m sure Eric Morris and staff spent most of the week prepping for this matchup instead of their FCS foe.

After preparing for Virginia’s run-heavy offense last week, West Virginia now has to completely flip the script against an Oklahoma State team that wants to attack through the air. The Mountaineers ranked 129th nationally in pass defense last season, and while there has been slight improvement, they still sit near the bottom of the country in pass defense and defending explosive passes.

That’s dangerous against Drew Mestemaker, who has really found his groove over the last two weeks. Oklahoma State already proved this offense can move the ball against high-level competition in the upset of Oregon, and Caleb Hawkins gives the Cowboys a real threat in the running game to keep West Virginia from simply selling out against the pass. Getting starting guard Joseph Hanson and receiver Chris Barnes back from injuries should only help this offense.

My biggest concern comes with Mestemaker himself, who has only faced one Power 4 opponent in his college career (Oregon), and now heads into Morgantown for his first Power 4 road start. He has already thrown four interceptions, and turnovers are probably the clearest path to Oklahoma State losing this game. If Mestemaker and the Cowboys can simply play West Virginia even in the turnover battle, I think Oklahoma State wins outright.

I upgraded West Virginia after last week, but I still don’t agree with what looks like a touchdown-sized move in their power rating. In what looks like a high-scoring game, I’ll take the points with Oklahoma St and bet on the Pokes pulling the outright upset in Morgantown.

Miami-Ohio -3.5 vs UConn

I make Miami-Ohio -6.5 here, so getting the RedHawks at -3.5 gives me three points of value, although I’d love to get -3 if it showed up somewhere.

These records are a little misleading. Miami is just 1-2, but has already gone on the road to face Pitt and Cincinnati. UConn’s two wins have come against Lafayette and a Southern Miss team I have rated more than 12 points worse than Miami.

I came away impressed with the RedHawks last week despite blowing a second-half lead in the loss to Cincinnati. Miami led by 21 before falling 35-31, but more importantly, QB David McComb continues to look better every week. He was thrust into the starting role with no college experience after projected starter Thomas Gotkowski suffered a season-ending injury before Week 1. McComb threw for 334 yards against Cincinnati after going 13-for-13 with three touchdowns against Holy Cross, and Miami has quietly developed a very explosive passing attack.

UConn’s pass-defense numbers look good, but this defense was just shredded for 347 yards against Maryland. Now they face a Miami offense that has been consistently generating explosive plays through the air with McComb and receivers Maleek Huggins and Damarion Witten.

I think Miami’s ugly defensive numbers are somewhat schedule-driven. UConn is a significant step down in competition from Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The situational spot also favors Miami, with UConn playing its second straight road game after a long trip to Hattiesburg, Mississippi, last weekend. Meanwhile, the RedHawks have Homecoming this weekend and return home, where Chuck Martin’s teams are 12-6 ATS since 2023.

I’m not a fan of new UConn coach Jason Candle, who underperformed year after year at Toledo. With three points of value in my projected line, I’ll gladly take the chance to fade Candle and a UConn team that may be slightly overrated after playing an easy schedule. I trust McComb to keep making plays through the air, and I like Chuck Martin’s team to bounce back at home.

Auburn -9 vs. Vanderbilt

This spread may look a little big, but my power ratings are right in line with it, and I’m willing to lay the points with Auburn. This should be a desperate Tigers team after a close win over Baylor and a bad home loss to Florida. Auburn and Alex Golesh need a strong response here, because another loss–or even another uninspiring performance–will have the fan base getting restless in a hurry.

I’m not ready to call Vanderbilt a fraud, but I do think the Dores are a little overrated right now. They were completely uninspiring in Week 1 against Austin Peay, struggled to pull away from Delaware in Week 2, and now they’re coming off an emotional, fortunate comeback win over NC State. All the attention this week has been on that dramatic finish, and this feels like a spot where Vanderbilt could have trouble matching that same energy.

Freshman QB Jared Curtis is clearly the better option over Blaze Berlowitz, and Clark Lea made the right call going to him last week. But Curtis also showed some freshman mistakes, throwing three interceptions in his first start, including one late that probably should have ended the game if not for the last-second chaos from NC State.

Now there’s no time to settle in. Curtis heads straight into only his second career start, and it comes at one of the nation’s most hostile environments, Jordan-Hare Stadium, against an Auburn team and crowd desperate for a win.

Look for the Tigers to have a big day on the ground, as Vanderbilt’s run defense has struggled to create pressure and negative plays. That sets up nicely for RB Jeremiah Cobb and QB Byrum Brown. If Auburn can stay ahead of the chains on the ground, Brown should spend most of the afternoon working in manageable second- and third-down situations instead of constantly facing obvious passing downs.

Curtis has definitely flashed, but he’s still a freshman quarterback making his first road start in one of the toughest environments in the country. In what feels like a desperation spot for Auburn and Golesh, I’ll lay the points and trust the Tigers to finally put together a complete performance.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Michigan -4 vs Iowa — I seriously considered making this my Best Bet of the week. My power ratings make Michigan -9.5 because I’m much lower on Iowa than the market; I just don’t see how the Hawkeyes score enough against one of the best defenses in the country. Michigan wins 17-9.

NIU @ Georgia State, Over 55 — Georgia State profiles as a great “over” team with an explosive offense and a defense that has plenty of holes. They should score plenty against one of the worst defenses in the country, and I think NIU can do enough offensively to help push this game over 55.

South Florida -17 @ Bowling Green — I make this around -19, so not a ton of value. But I have BGSU as one of the worst teams in the country, and the Falcons are bottom 15 in the nation in every defensive and offensive category.

Mississippi St -3 vs Missouri — I grabbed this when it opened, but I don’t like making something my Best Bet after the line has moved so far from the number I got. Still, I project Mississippi State -6.5 and would lay anything below that. Missouri was thoroughly outplayed by Troy last weekend, and since 2024 the Tigers are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS against Top 25 teams. Drinkwitz can’t win when stepping up in competition, and I don’t expect that to change in what should be a juiced-up Starkville atmosphere.

Oregon -3 @ USC — I hate to go with the crowd, but it would have to be Oregon or pass for me in this game. I’m not sold on USC or their defense yet. Have not bet this one yet, but definitely leaning towards the Ducks.

Arkansas -6.5 vs Tulsa — This is disgusting, but if there was ever a time to bet Arkansas, it’s right now. I project this Hogs -8, so I see a tiny bit of value above a key number. Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes missed last week with injury and is out again for this game as they make sure he’s ready for conference play. This is a desperation spot in Fayetteville.

Minnesota +10 @ Washington — Another good data point for my ratings…I make this Washington -4.5. What in the world has Washington done to be favored double digits against a team with a pulse? I know the Minnesota travel spot is brutal, but this is a lot of points for a Husky offense that has looked all out of sorts. Also should be low scoring with a total of 45.5. I lean heavily to the Gophers.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

Rightfully so, those fans were booing early and often last Sunday during Atlanta’s 34-3 loss to the Panthers. It was sheer embarrassment for the entire organization — one that was lambasted by every media outlet in the country heading into Thursday Night Football, a game everybody predicted they would lose.

Here’s what was funny about nearly every one of these football savants from the national media, though: they had no problem calling the Falcons the worst team in the league, but almost none of them acknowledged that all of Atlanta’s struggles stemmed from one simple fact — Cooper Rush was starting at quarterback.

If any of them had taken five minutes out of their day to actually watch what the Falcons were dealing with under center instead of skimming the box score, they might have talked a little differently once it was announced that Michael Penix Jr. was set to make his season debut after tearing his ACL.

Instead, all those talking heads cracking jokes without watching a single snap got a firsthand glimpse of just how “talentless” the Falcons are — on primetime television, no less — as Atlanta swarmed the Packers in all three phases.

For the Falcons, it always starts with the ground game, and nobody was happier to see Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup than Bijan Robinson. The mere threat of Penix’s arm — something Cooper Rush simply couldn’t provide — forces defenses to play honest, and it let Robinson get going early and often, racking up 194 yards on 29 carries with a couple of touchdowns.

In total, the Falcons piled up 242 yards on the ground, running it a whopping 41 times. The Packers? Nine carries for 17 yards.

That’s a storyline nobody wanted to touch coming into the game. Atlanta’s defensive front — despite losing big names in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. — had been quietly impressive through the first two weeks, while the Packers’ offensive line has been a disastrous work in progress. It was a massive advantage in Atlanta’s favor, and it played out exactly that way. Green Bay couldn’t run it, and Jordan Love spent the night running around like a chicken with his head cut off, doing most of his damage in garbage time with the game well out of reach.

But this blowout didn’t start with a dream script. Atlanta got the ball to open the game, and after a couple of first downs, Penix tossed a dangerous ball into traffic for his first interception of the season. The jokes came flying on social media, and the Packers turned it into an early touchdown lead.

Then, around the second quarter, Penix found his rhythm — and never lost it. He went 16-for-18 the rest of the way for 234 yards and a touchdown, with Drake London hauling in 194 of those yards.

It may have been the best three-quarter stretch of Penix’s entire career. And to do it in his first game back from his third ACL injury, in front of a national audience, with nobody in his corner? As Drake London put it after the game, “He’s the definition of resiliency.”

This was among the most complete performance we’ve seen from the Falcons in nearly a decade. Even special teams — a glaring problem area a year ago — was flawless. Zach Harrison blocked a field goal. They shut down the Packers’ return game. Nick Folk bounced back from a shaky start to the season, going 2-for-2 on field goals. And Jake Bailey dropped both of his punts inside the 20.

It gets said all the time, but the NFL is the definition of a week-to-week league. What happened Thursday night won’t help the Falcons next week, just as last week’s blowout loss didn’t carry over to Green Bay. Every team is liable to get beaten badly if it doesn’t bring its A-game — something that was impossible with Cooper Rush under center. But with Michael Penix Jr. back, the Falcons announced to the world that they’re not dead yet.

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(Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Walt Weiss added that Perez felt the pain during his last start in Houston, and the veteran hopes he can return at some point in October if the Braves make a deep playoff run.

This is exactly the type of news no team wants to hear less than a week before the postseason begins. Martin Perez has been a steady force in the Braves’ rotation all season. Everybody expected him to slip at some point, but he answered the bell at every call, recording a 3.04 ERA over 142 innings.

I had Perez as the Braves’ #3 starter going into the postseason, likely getting the ball in a winner-take-all Game 3 next week if the series made it to that point — the primary reason being his success at home. Perez owns a 1.80 ERA this season at Truist Park, and over his last six starts, that number is down to 0.28. He wasn’t expected to be the catalyst that was going to carry the Braves, but those numbers are hard to ignore. Losing him unexpectedly for at least the first two rounds is far from ideal.

With this news, Grant Holmes instantly becomes the Braves’ #3 starter in the postseason following Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle. Outside of those three, expect to see bullpen games until Perez returns. AJ Smith-Shawver is likely the only other starting pitcher who will make the playoff roster for the Wild Card Series. JR Ritchie is another option the Braves might consider, but those would indeed be desperate times.

Hopefully, Perez’s injury isn’t a blow that deters the Braves too much. This is a team that’s overcome so much, starting at the very beginning of the season, when Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Hurston Waldrep all went down with significant injuries during Spring Training. The Braves should have just enough starting pitching to withstand another loss, but they better hope this is the last time the injury bug takes a bite out of the club. Depth across the board is razor-thin.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

That much we know for certain, but their opponent still remains very much in the air — with the Padres, Phillies, Cubs, and Diamondbacks all jockeying for the final three spots in the National League.

Arizona Diamondbacks (84-74)

Remaining Games: (1) @Colorado, (3) @San Diego

The Diamondbacks are alive in the Wild Card race, but barely. They sit three games behind the Phillies for the sixth seed with just four games to play, making them the least likely of the Braves’ opponents next week.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-71)

Remaining Games: (1) vs. Milwaukee, (3) vs. Tampa Bay

If the season ended today, the Braves would face the Philadelphia Phillies, and what a familiar sight that would be. These two teams met in the postseason in 2022 and 2023, with the Phillies winning in four games both times. An opportunity for some sweet revenge is attractive, but that pitching staff would be hell to face in a three-game series where there is absolutely no margin for error.

Given the Phillies’ remaining four games are against two of the best teams in the league, there’s a very high likelihood they finish sixth in the standings.

Chicago Cubs (87-71)

Remaining Games: (1) vs. Miami, (3) @Boston

The Cubs own the tiebreaker over the Phillies, but the teams are tied in the standings, so Chicago could be the Braves’ opponent, with that three-game set in Boston determining a lot.

San Diego Padres (88-70)

Remaining Games: (1) @Los Angeles Dodgers, (3) vs. Diamondbacks

The Padres currently hold a one-game edge over the Cubs and Phillies, which sets them up for a home Wild Card Series. That’s what all these teams are fighting for over the final week, but their remaining schedule is on the more difficult side, featuring a matchup with the two-time defending champions and a Diamondbacks team that could be fighting for its postseason life.

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A lot of times, there’s a rooting interest for a team sitting in the Braves’ position, but I’m not quite sure it matters who they end up facing out of these four. All of them have really good aspects that are going to make them extremely difficult to beat. The Padres have been red-hot and have had the Braves’ number. The Phillies are a seasoned team with incredible starting pitching, and the Cubs feature a lineup that can absolutely mash the baseball. If the Braves are going to make it to the NLDS, they’re going to have to do it the hard way no matter who they face.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

So, who will replace him on the postseason roster? First, let’s take a look at what that would look like.

Potential Braves 2026 Playoff Roster

Starting Pitchers

1. Chris Sale
2. Tyler Mahle
3. Martin Perez (???)
4. Grant Holmes

Bullpen

1. Raisel Iglesias
2. Robert Suarez
3. Dylan Lee
4. Didier Fuentes
5. Brent Suter
6. Victor Mederos
7. Ray Kerr
8. Dylan Dodd
9. AJ Smith-Shawver

Catchers

1. Sean Murphy
2. Drake Baldwin
3. Chuckie Robinson

Infielders

1. Ozzie Albies
2. Matt Olson
3. Mauricio Dubon
4. Austin Riley
5. Ha-Seong Kim

Outfielders

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. Michael Harris II
3. Mike Yastrzemski
4. Brewer Hicklen
5. DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

—

The Braves right now only have three starting pitchers with any experience. Losing even more depth with this injury to Martin Perez hurts, but it’s not something that should be catastrophic. This was always going to be a team that relied a lot more heavily on its bullpen than its starting pitchers. The plan for a while now has been Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, and then figure out some way to piece together 27 outs.

As far as potential replacements for Perez on the Braves’ playoff roster, there isn’t really a clear-cut option. They could go the bullpen route, with Elieser Hernandez being a likely candidate. He’s proven over a small sample size that he can be effective, boasting a 2.43 ERA in 11 innings this season, and his ability to go multiple innings in a given outing is attractive.

But it feels like the most likely replacement is JR Ritchie. Sure, he’s taken plenty of lumps throughout his rookie season, but from a stuff perspective, there’s still a lot to like, and he showed that a couple of nights ago when he went five innings and allowed just one run with eight strikeouts against the Reds.

In truth, whoever the Braves call up will likely be last in line to see the mound. They’ll have a completely rested pitching staff heading into the Wild Card Series that shouldn’t require everybody to pitch. However, where things really start to get interesting is if the Braves get deeper into the postseason. Then they might be relying on JR Ritchie to make a start, something we’ve seen in the past with guys like Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Tucker Davidson.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

Tyler Mahle has been the best starting pitcher that was moved. There’s not a close second, as he’s posted a 1.99 ERA over nine starts and was acquired for a journeyman reliever. All the Braves had to do was pick up the remaining $2 million left on his contract.

Brent Suter has also been a really quality addition. He’s not someone the Braves are going to throw out there in high-leverage situations often, but he’s done a terrific job eating the middle innings when the starters haven’t been able to go deep into games, boasting a 1.92 ERA over 24.2 innings. His ability to go multiple innings out of the bullpen is also something that could prove beneficial when the Braves hopefully begin a deep postseason run next week.

However, there has always been the question of whether the Braves did enough. Their offense has struggled mightily over the last four months, yet the only bat they acquired was Lane Thomas, who is currently on the IL and questionable for the postseason. They could have used more, but the real concerns surround the rotation. It’s been a paper-thin group all year, and the healthy options are dropping like flies.

Bryce Elder went to the IL earlier this month with a knee injury. He’s not going to be available for the first couple of rounds of the postseason, and now Martin Perez is on the IL as well with back inflammation, keeping him out for at least the next couple of weeks.

That leaves the Braves with three — yes, three — healthy starting pitchers who have any experience at the major-league level: Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, and Grant Holmes.

Sale and Mahle were always going to be the two horses the Braves relied on, but having that little depth going into a postseason that’s going to require four series wins if they want to reach the top of the mountain isn’t just less than ideal; it almost feels like a hill that could be too difficult to climb.

This is the exact scenario fans have been clamoring about for years. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Braves’ rotation for a long time, yet Alex Anthopoulos has essentially refused to bring in any new blood. It’s a situation everybody could have seen coming from a mile away; unfortunately, the one whose opinion matters never saw it that way.

Now Walt Weiss is tasked with the near-impossible job of navigating a gauntlet of the best teams in baseball with just three starting pitchers. If he can somehow piece this thing together, it will go down as one of the best managerial jobs in MLB history — a tough ask for a guy in his first year on the job.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Typically, there’s not a ton of movement from week to week, but a couple of significant injuries to Reynaldo Lopez and Lane Thomas have really opened the door for several players who would have never been considered for October baseball just a few weeks ago.

Braves 2026 Playoff Roster

Starting Pitchers

1. Chris Sale
2. Tyler Mahle
3. Martin Perez
4. Grant Holmes

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In a three-game Wild Card series, only three starters are needed, so one of these guys will be pitching out of the bullpen. At this very moment, I believe that player will be Grant Holmes.

Sale and Mahle will pitch Games 1 and 2 — and because the Wild Card series will likely take place at Truist Park, Martin Perez feels like the most likely option for a winner-take-all Game 3. His numbers at home recently have been downright absurd, posting a 0.28 ERA in Atlanta over his last six starts. However, I still wouldn’t write that in stone just yet, because Holmes has been more than solid in his own right over the past couple of months.

Bullpen

1. Raisel Iglesias
2. Robert Suarez
3. Dylan Lee
4. Didier Fuentes
5. Brent Suter
6. Victor Mederos
7. Ray Kerr
8. Dylan Dodd
9. AJ Smith-Shawver

—

For now, I’m continuing to hold onto the hope that Robert Suarez will return for the playoffs. However, I’m admittedly becoming more concerned by the day.

I also have AJ Smith-Shawver sneaking onto the roster as a potential bullpen option because of his upside, but a name to watch over the final couple of weeks of the season is JR Ritchie. He’s going to start tomorrow in Chicago and will likely get another look before the season ends. If he pitches well, he could find his way onto the Braves’ playoff  roster.

Catchers

1. Sean Murphy
2. Drake Baldwin

Infielders

1. Ozzie Albies
2. Matt Olson
3. Mauricio Dubon
4. Austin Riley
5. Ha-Seong Kim

—

Any questions about Ha-Seong Kim’s inclusion on the postseason roster have been put to bed for two reasons. Lane Thomas’ injury opens up another spot, and Kim has proven to be really clutch in big moments down the stretch. He’s become someone Walt Weiss can turn to off the bench with the game on the line. That could prove huge come October.

Designated Hitter

1. Dominic Smith

Outfielders

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. Michael Harris
3. Mike Yastrzemski
4. Brewer Hicklen
5. DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

—

This group without Lane Thomas has become tough to look at. Brewer Hicklen’s spot on the roster now feels 100% secure, and the final player I included is DaShawn Keirsey Jr. — strictly because he can offer the Braves a lot of speed off the bench, which is valuable during the postseason.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

The minor-league season ends this week, which means if Suarez is going to get some work in before the postseason, it’s going to come with the major-league club — something Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman confirmed on Tuesday.

This is actually something I’ve mentioned over the last month since Suarez ramped up his activities. Unlike position players and especially starting pitchers, relievers don’t really need rehab assignments. It’s typically nice to get them a few appearances against lesser competition before throwing them back into the fire, but in this case, the Braves would probably like to see him against major-league competition immediately before he pitches in a high-leverage situation come the playoffs.

Hopefully, Atlanta has an opportunity to ease him into things in low-pressure situations. The Braves currently have a 4.5-game lead in the NL East, which is really a 5.5-game lead because they own the tiebreaker over the Phillies. If they can essentially wrap things up in the coming days, the final week of the season could feel like an enhanced rehab assignment for Robert Suarez, giving the Braves a good idea of what they have in him before all the chips are on the table.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

The calls for Jack Strand are at an all-time high, and understandably so.

Cooper Rush just turned in one of the worst showings in NFL history. His 2.6 QBR was by far the worst mark of any signal caller in Week 1, but somehow, that number really doesn’t do his performance justice. He couldn’t even throw the ball past the line of scrimmage, and on the rare occasion the Falcons attempted to do so, disaster was usually around the corner.

There’s no right-minded individual who’s been around the game for very long that watched that performance and believes Cooper Rush should be on the field come Sunday. It’s also not like this is a new development. Rush started two games last year for the Ravens, and he averaged just 150 yards passing per game with no touchdowns and four interceptions.

The sample size is large enough that we know Rush is not a competent starting quarterback. At least with Strand there’s the possibility of untapped potential. The Falcons are going to lose anyway with Rush under center, so why not see what the new blood can provide? Strand at least has the tools from a physical standpoint to be successful.

Of course, all of this is a moot point if either Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play. We know Penix is healthy, but he decided to sit out Week 1, claiming he wasn’t mentally ready. We don’t know yet if that will be the case again, but Stefanski once again reiterated that Penix is cleared to play.

Hopefully that means Penix will be on the field Sunday. Not a lot of teams have dug themselves out of an 0-2 hole and made the postseason — and the task doesn’t get any easier in Week 3, with the Falcons traveling to Green Bay for a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Packers.

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(Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

On the one hand, there are a lot of positives to discuss surrounding the defense, and even Bijan Robinson continued tearing teams to shreds on the other side of the ball. However, the offense overall looked no better than what you’d find at your local high school here in Georgia, and the issues ran much deeper than just the quarterback.

Falcons Offensive Line

The Falcons have invested a ton of money into their offensive line, most recently making Matthew Bergeron the highest-paid guard in the league. Chris Lindstrom on the other side is up there as well, and Jake Matthews is also being paid handsomely at left tackle.

It didn’t look like it on Sunday. The Falcons were called for holding six times, with four of those penalties being accepted — both rank dead last in the league through one week. They also surrendered four sacks, which is pretty impressive considering Cooper Rush only dropped back 26 times, and more often than not, he was targeting a quick option in the flat.

The Steelers have a menacing defensive line, led by T.J. Watt — one of the best defensive players over the last decade. But several members of the Falcons offensive line are getting paid like the best at their respective positions, and all of them underwhelmed on Sunday. For now, we can chalk it up to a small sample size against a good defense with a quarterback who wasn’t doing them any favors, but they have to be way better moving forward, or this team is going to struggle to get to six wins.

Falcons Kicking Woes

Kicking woes doomed the Falcons on several occasions last year as they cycled through three different field goal kickers before finally landing on Zane Gonzalez, who brought some stability to the position, making 19 of 22 attempts over the final nine games.

But for whatever reason, that wasn’t good enough to keep him around. Instead, the new regime preferred 41-year-old Nick Folk, who looked every bit of his age in his first game with the Falcons, missing two of his four attempts. That ultimately was the difference in the game, because Atlanta found themselves looking for touchdowns in the fourth quarter instead of a go-ahead field goal.

Folk has been arguably the most reliable kicker in the league over the last three seasons. He entered Sunday’s game having missed only three field goals since the start of the 2023 campaign, so he’s earned a little bit of grace. That said, he’s coming up on 42 years old, and the cliff when kickers get to that age tends to be pretty steep once things start heading in the wrong direction.

Falcons Injuries

The offense has stayed mostly healthy up to this point. Chris Lindstrom did suffer a concussion in the loss and his status is up in the air for Week 2, but most of the concerns lie across the defensive front. James Pearce Jr. has seven more games to serve of his suspension. Jalon Walker is out for the season with a torn ACL, and now Da’Shawn Hand will also miss the remainder of the campaign after suffering a torn quad. The Falcons defensive front was spectacular against the Steelers, but they are running out of depth fast, which could rear its ugly head later in the season.

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(Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire)

Martin Perez got the ball on Tuesday night for Atlanta at Wrigley Field, and the game didn’t exactly get off to the most encouraging start. The Cubs began the scoring in the second and then added two more in the fourth, thanks to some shoddy defense from Mauricio Dubon. But Perez settled in after that and finished six innings without allowing any more damage — another strong outing for the veteran, who even shaved his ERA down a smidge to 3.07 on the season.

Offensively, there weren’t many signs of life for much of the evening, but everything changed in the sixth when Ronald Acuña Jr. lifted one over the left-field wall to put two runs on the board. His best friend, Ozzie Albies, then played a little game of copycat with a go-ahead two-run moonshot in the seventh. And for insurance, Drake Baldwin blasted a two-run homer in the ninth to make life much easier on Raisel Iglesias, who shut the door for his 33rd save of the season.

Meanwhile, the pesky Nationals topped the Phillies in Washington thanks to a couple of late home runs of their own, giving the Braves a 5.5-game lead in the NL East with 10 games the rest of the way. Which, if you’re counting at home, means Atlanta’s magic number to win the division is down to five.

Even more good news? With the Diamondbacks losing in extras to the Marlins late last night, the Braves’ magic number to clinch a spot in the postseason is now down to just two. The Braves will be back in the playoffs after a one-year hiatus, and as long as they avoid an epic collapse within the division, postseason baseball is returning to Truist Park.

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(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

This is nothing short of brain-dead from the Atlanta Falcons, and while everybody wants to give the new regime the benefit of the doubt, decisions like this will lead to the fan base turning on them quickly.

Cooper Rush was historically bad in the Falcons’ season opener. He finished with a 2.6 QBR, yet somehow, that number really doesn’t do justice to the type of horrific quarterback play that was on display in Pittsburgh. Rush quite literally was incapable of throwing the ball past the line of scrimmage. By the end of the first quarter, the Falcons had pretty much put themselves in a box of running the football and tossing a pass out to Bijan Robinson in the flat.

That’s straight-up unacceptable, yet somehow Rush is not only still on the roster, but the Falcons are actually considering starting him again?

Everybody should be concerned with that kind of decision-making from the coaching staff, and they should also be quite pissed off that Michael Penix Jr. isn’t taking a bit more initiative to start under center against the Panthers. He’s a miles better option than Cooper Rush, someone who actually gives the Falcons a chance to win the game, and he’s healthy — yet he’s going to sit out again because he’s not quite ready mentally.

That doesn’t sound like a football player, and it certainly doesn’t sound like someone Atlanta should make the face of their franchise. If he’s not on the field against the Panthers, he might as well have one foot out the door.

Then there’s the Jack Strand aspect to all of this. He starred in the preseason, enough that the Falcons placed him on the 53-man roster, yet they don’t want to start him over Cooper Rush?

I’m not saying Strand is going to lead the Falcons to the playoffs. It’s a lot to ask of an undrafted rookie to come in and start immediately. But what I do know is Strand can at least throw the football further than five yards and also offers a ton with his legs that could help the Falcons offense at least keep defenses honest. He could play one of the worst games in the history of football this Sunday, and it still would be marginally better than what we saw out of Cooper Rush.

We’ll see what happens the rest of the week, but this is quickly becoming a stain for everyone involved — a terrible look for a new regime that sparked some confidence when they were hired, mainly because of Matt Ryan rejoining the organization in an executive role. Unfortunately, that’s only going to buy the organization so much grace from a restless fan base.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

After two full weeks of meaningful data points, we’re starting to learn which preseason assumptions were right, which teams were badly mispriced, and where the market still hasn’t fully caught up. Here’s what jumps out to me heading into Week 3, including a couple of point totals.

2026 record: 6-2

South Alabama -6 vs. Ohio

I’m rolling with South Alabama again this week. The Jaguars were one of my best bets last Saturday, and I came away impressed. South Alabama played well enough to beat Tulane outright, carrying the game deep into the fourth quarter before Tulane scored in the final 90 seconds to take the lead. More importantly, QB Bishop Davenport has looked steady through two games, taking care of the football and giving this offense a much higher floor than we saw in 2025.

Ohio, meanwhile, is coming off one of the more fortunate wins of this early season. The Bobcats survived Jacksonville State 29-27 in four overtimes, but the box score was dominated by the Gamecocks, and nearly every high-variance play seemed to break Ohio’s way. The Bobcats won the turnover battle, benefited from a failed Jax State fourth-down conversion, returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and then watched Garrison Rippa (one of the best G6 kickers) miss a 38-yard field goal that would have won the game. Ohio deserves credit for surviving, but there was heavy luck involved along the way.

Something to note is that Ohio just played four overtimes and now immediately has to travel to hot and steamy Mobile, and the Bobcats came out of last week pretty banged up. Starting QB Nick Poulos left in the second quarter after taking the hit that resulted in a targeting call, backup Matt Vezza also exited, and true freshman Levi Davis had to finish the game. Starting RB Duncan Brune was injured as well, while the secondary is dealing with issues involving key players DJ Walker, KJ Sejour and Eli Thompson. There’s no definitive update yet on several of those players, but that is a lot of uncertainty at important positions for a team making a road trip after an exhausting game.

Ohio has also been a very different team away from Athens. Peden Stadium has become one of the strongest home-field environments in the G6, with Ohio having an incredible 24-1 record at home since the start of 2022. Strange games have had a way of breaking in the Bobcats’ direction there, and last week certainly fit the pattern. But on the road over that same span, Ohio is only 12-13 straight up, including a 3-11 record as a road underdog. Simply put, there’s been a night-and-day difference between the Ohio we see at home versus on the road.

I like what I’ve seen from the Jags through two weeks, but this bet is just as much about fading an Ohio team that may be running on fumes. The Bobcats were outplayed last week, survived because of a string of favorable variance, and may now be missing key pieces on both sides of the ball. South Alabama has been competitive, and Davenport looks good alongside weapons RB Keenan Phillips and WR Brendan Jenkins. After watching Ohio squeak out that fortunate home win, I’m jumping at the chance to fade them, especially on the road.

West Virginia vs. Virginia — under 54.5 & 1H under 28

I’m staying away from the side in this one and instead backing a lower-scoring game between two offenses that are built to run the football. West Virginia has been one of the most run-heavy teams in the country under Rich Rodriguez, with roughly a 78% run rate through the early part of the season. Cam Cook, who was one of the best backs in the country last year at Jacksonville State, is the bellcow, while Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins gives the Mountaineers another major rushing threat at quarterback. Virginia wants to play a similar style. Tony Elliott has a deep stable of backs he is comfortable rotating, and QB Beau Pribula is a major part of the running game himself. In the Week 0 win over NC State, Pribula attempted only 11 passes but ran for 110 yards.

I also like what Virginia’s defense has shown so far. I was skeptical coming into the year after the Cavaliers lost a lot of talent from last season, but Elliott appears to have hit on several portal additions, particularly in the secondary. Michigan transfer Brandyn Hillman has fit in nicely alongside stars Ethan Minter and Corey Costner, and the defense should get even better with LB Kam Robinson returning from injury. NC State’s offense was completely overwhelmed in the opener, and through two games Virginia has allowed just one offensive play of 25-plus yards. John Rudzinski’s defense is making opponents earn everything slowly instead of giving up cheap explosives, and that is exactly what I want to see when betting an under.

The tempo also works in our favor. West Virginia does play fairly fast, which is not ideal for an under, but most of that pace comes through the running game and keeps the clock moving. Virginia is on the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging roughly 33 seconds per play, which is among the slowest offenses in the country. They are in no hurry to snap the football, and when Virginia is playing from ahead, Elliott is perfectly comfortable leaning on the run and shortening the game. Since the start of the 2024 season, Virginia games are 11-5-1 to the under when the Cavaliers are favored. With UVA laying around ten points here, the expected game script fits that trend well: establish the run, build a lead and make West Virginia drive the field against a defense that has done an excellent job limiting explosive plays.

I also like the first-half under for many of the same reasons. Both teams are making a small step up in competition. Virginia is coming off a bye week and then a blowout of FCS Norfolk State, meaning this is its first legitimate test since seeing NC State. West Virginia has opened with Coastal Carolina and FCS Tennessee-Martin. I expect some feeling-out early as both teams try to establish the run, and that could make the first half move very slowly. I see some long possessions, limited explosives and enough defensive resistance to keep this from turning into a track meet.

Ball State @ Liberty — under 52

Don’t expect a ton of points here, mainly because of the offensive tempo. Ball State is around 91st nationally in seconds per play, while Liberty is down around 130th, putting the Flames among the ten slowest offenses in the country. Ball State is extremely run-heavy and almost service-academy-like in its approach, while Liberty also wants to establish the ground game, so the basic setup points toward long possessions, a running clock and fewer total drives. The market has already moved in that direction, with the total opening around 53.5 before getting bet down toward 49.5. I would still play the under at any number above 49, and I was happy to grab it at 52.

Liberty’s offense simply has not looked good through two games. The Flames scored only 13 points against James Madison and struggled to sustain drives, then barely escaped FCS Gardner-Webb 24-23 as a massive favorite. That performance included 11 penalties, two turnovers and a 2-for-12 mark on third down. Liberty scored touchdowns on plays of 65 and 54 yards, while another touchdown came after a turnover gave the offense the ball at the Gardner-Webb 20. Outside of those explosive plays and short fields, the Flames had a difficult time putting together consistent offense. QB Deshawn Purdie has not looked comfortable, and Liberty even turned to backup Jaylen Henderson late, which adds another layer of uncertainty to an offense already struggling to stay on schedule.

I have Ball State power rated as the second-worst team in FBS (ahead of Sacramento State), which is the main reason I’m not simply taking the points with the Cardinals. Their offense did look much cleaner against Stony Brook, and an offensive line that allowed a MAC-worst 49 sacks last season finally looked functional, but I still don’t trust Ball State to play from behind — and that actually helps the under. Liberty will hunt explosive passes and has been successful so far this season, while Ball State is vulnerable to give them up. The Cardinals are not built to suddenly abandon the run and start chasing points through the air. Should Ball State fall behind quickly, they will likely struggle to claw back into the game instead of turning this into a shootout.

Explosive passes are the biggest threat to the under, and Liberty may be able to create easy points over the top. But the flip side is that the Flames have needed those explosives to score efficiently because they have been so poor at sustaining drives. If Ball State can prevent two or three huge plays, this has all the ingredients of an ugly, slow game filled with runs and long possessions. Liberty travels to Coastal Carolina on a short week the following Thursday, and if the Flames get control of this game, there is little incentive to keep pushing offensively when they can lean on the run, drain the clock and get out healthy. I considered Ball State +14.5, but I don’t trust the Cardinals’ offense enough if they fall behind. The cleaner way to play this matchup is the total.

Other Bets/Thoughts

EMU @ Wisconsin, Under 49 — I’m taking the under in Madison, where wind and rain are expected. This EMU offense has been dreadful to start the season and could only muster seven points in East Lansing last weekend. Expect the same here.

Kentucky +10 1H @ Texas A&M — I think A&M is slightly overrated after benefiting from four touchdowns off special teams or turnovers last week vs Arizona State. Kentucky hung around for a while with Alabama and can do the same here. The key is UK DC Jay Bateman, who comes from A&M and knows the Marcel Reed offense well.

North Carolina @ Clemson, Under 43.5 — Not sure who to trust here, but I think it’ll be low-scoring. From a side perspective, I like Bobby Petrino much more than Chad Morris. I can’t believe how far Clemson has fallen.

Minnesota -23.5 vs Akron — The Gophers looked awful last week, but I think Mississippi St could be really good. Akron can’t stop this Darius Taylor rushing attack for four quarters, and Minnesota will respond in a big way. PJ Fleck is 8-2 ATS at Minnesota when laying 21 points or more.

Purdue +15 @ UCLA — Has anyone seen the Bruins offense recently? It’s not been great. Purdue looks competent and has an offense that can score enough to cover here. My ratings have UCLA -10, so I’ll take the points.

NC State +3.5 @ Vanderbilt — This is a season-defining spot for the Wolfpack, and I expect a desperate team. Vanderbilt is much worse than I originally thought, although Jared Curtis at QB does add some pop to the offense. I lean Wolfpack.

Ole Miss +3 vs LSU — LSU has looked great, but doesn’t that say more about who they’ve played? This line has moved around five points since it posted in the summer, and that feels like a little too much for me. Should be back and forth, so I’ll lean to the home team and the better quarterback who could have the ball last.

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There’s been a lot of understandable commotion surrounding the Falcons quarterback situation. Kevin Stefanski said earlier in the week that all four quarterbacks could potentially get the nod, but it’s always felt like things were trending towards Rush starting for the second consecutive week despite his woeful performance against the Steelers.

Michael Penix Jr. isn’t quite comfortable enough with his knee yet to play, even though he’s been cleared to do so by the doctors. Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with an oblique injury, which is always a difficult injury to come back from. And while the fan base would love to see undrafted rookie Jack Strand, it never appeared the coaching staff seriously considered him as an option.

That’s discouraging, because the entire world knows what Cooper Rush is, and that’s not a competent starting quarterback. He’s made three starts over the last two seasons, throwing for just one touchdown compared to six interceptions. Rush couldn’t even complete a pass past the line of scrimmage last week, severely handicapping what the Falcons could do offensively.

Perhaps he’s better in Week 2, and for the coaching staff’s sake, he better be. This is the first major test for the new regime — one they are failing miserably through one week.

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Entering the season, Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver, JR Ritchie, and Owen Murphy were all on the radar as potential significant pieces to the rotation. Schwellenbach entered Spring Training expected to be the #2, and Waldrep showed some real promise down the stretch last season. Both were injured about a month before the start of the season and combined to make just three appearances.

AJ Smith-Shawver finally made his return from Tommy John surgery in August but has been mostly erratic since rejoining the Braves, which is to be expected for someone who did not pitch for 14 months. There remains a lot of promise for his future, but as far as this season is concerned, he’s probably not someone the Braves are going to trust in big moments in October, even if he’s still in the conversation for the playoff roster.

JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy are two more pitchers who both look like they are a year away. Ritchie got the start last night for the Braves against the Cubs. It was his first appearance with the major-league club since August 2nd, and Chicago thrashed him for six earned runs over 4.2 innings. He’ll likely get another look before the season ends because he cannot be optioned anymore this year without having to clear waivers, but the Braves have seen enough to know he’s not quite ready for the big stage.

The only young arm that’s experienced success has been Didier Fuentes, blossoming into one of the best setup men in all of baseball. It’s impossible to say anything negative about the rookie campaign he’s put together. He’ll be an integral piece to the Braves next month, but it’s hard not to wonder what he might have been able to provide if the club had elected to stretch him out. A three-headed monster of Chris Sale, Didier Fuentes, and Tyler Mahle really doesn’t sound too shabby with the way they’ve performed of late.

When looking at the last five or six seasons, few organizations have been better at developing starting pitching than the Atlanta Braves. Seemingly every year at least one of their young arms flashes frontline potential. Unfortunately, keeping them healthy has been an entirely different story. Didier Fuentes is no consolation prize. In fact, he could be the best of the bunch when it’s all said and done, but given how the Braves operated in free agency — failing to acquire a single starting pitcher — it’s fair to assume they expected a ton more from their young starting pitching.

They essentially got nothing, and it’s left them with more questions than answers entering October.

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That will make a lot of the fan base more hopeful after what happened this past weekend against Pittsburgh, but the best possible scenario remains Michael Penix Jr. returning to the field. He’s been cleared to play, but in response to those questioning his decision not to suit up, he reminded everybody on Wednesday that it’s ultimately his decision.

Penix is right, and there must be some level of understanding when it comes to his injury history. This is a player who has suffered five season-ending injuries dating back to his college days, including three different ACL surgeries. It’s natural for a mental barrier to exist.

However, that’s not going to go over well with a restless fan base that has watched the Falcons miss the playoffs every season since 2017, and it’s also more than fair to question how sitting out is going to help him get over this mental barrier. It’s not as if he’s getting hit in practice. Penix isn’t going to really feel comfortable with the knee until bullets are flying and he takes that first hit, which is only going to happen in a game setting.

The fan base seems to be split in two on this issue. Some are okay with Penix taking as much time as possible to feel 100% comfortable until he plays. Others wonder how he can continue to sit on the sidelines while cleared after watching the disaster class the Falcons offense put on live television against the Steelers.

Both can make valid points in their respective arguments, but ultimately, Penix has made it very clear he has no intention of playing until he feels ready, even if the team continues to suffer because of it.

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Atlanta fell behind early with Chris Sale on the bump — a rare occurrence this season, as the former Cy Young award winner surrendered three runs in the second inning, thanks to a Derek Hill bases-clearing double. And for most of the evening, it felt like the Braves’ offensive woes were going to carry into the weekend.

But an Austin Riley laser over the left-field wall gave the club some life in the seventh, and the tying run came across in the ninth when Sean Murphy singled to center. A late night got even later with extra innings. Both teams brought across a run in the tenth, and the Phillies did the same in the eleventh to take back a one-run lead.

The bottom half of the inning began with two quick outs, setting the table for probably the most unexpected hero in Major League Baseball this season. Ha-Seong Kim came up with a walk-off hit a few weeks ago against the Dodgers; he then had another massive hit in the Braves’ win on Thursday against the Rays, and he did it again against the Phillies — roping a ball into left field to tie the game.

That gave way to Drake Baldwin, and the All-Star catcher did not disappoint.

The win gives the Braves a 5.0-game lead in the NL East, which is really a 6.0-game lead because the Braves own the tiebreaker after taking the season series between the two clubs. With about two weeks left to play, as the infamous Sal Licata would say, “The NL East is OVER.”

The Phillies seem to see the writing on the wall. After the game, they announced Jesus Luzardo, who threw a complete-game shutout against the Braves last week, will not make his scheduled start on Saturday for extra rest. That’s probably not something that would have happened had the Phillies found a way to win last night.

Additionally, we got another update on the injury to Lane Thomas from Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Thomas suffered an intercostal strain and was placed on the IL. Typically, that requires at least a month of downtime, but the veteran outfielder is going to try to push the envelope to return for the Braves’ postseason run.

“There’s a range for obliques and intercostals — four to six weeks, I feel like — but some injections can speed that up potentially,” Thomas said. “So that’s the information I’m going to get from the doctor on Sunday.”

Walt Weiss said before the game that Thomas’ injury will lead to more playing time for Ha-Seong Kim, with Mauricio Dubon spending more time in the outfield. Given the number of clutch hits Kim has provided since returning from the Injured List, it may end up working out just fine, but more depth is never a bad thing. Hopefully Thomas can make it back at some point in October.

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Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

Stefanski would add that Tagovailoa is week-to-week, but oblique injuries are always tricky and can oftentimes take north of a month to heal. After all the hoopla leading up to this moment, it’s possible Tagovailoa never takes a snap under center in Atlanta.

For Cooper Rush, this will be his 17th NFL start. The most he’s ever made in a season was back in 2024, when he started eight games for the Dallas Cowboys, leading them to a respectable 4-4 record with 1,844 passing yards and 12 touchdowns to five interceptions. Last season, Rush made two starts for the Ravens, going 0-2 with just 303 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Let’s hope the Falcons see the Dallas version of Rush on Sunday, or things might get really interesting. Undrafted rookie Jack Strand has already cemented his status as a folk hero for his tremendous work during the preseason. If Rush struggles mightily in Week 1, the calls to see Strand are only going to grow louder, and I’m not sure the Falcons should be so against the idea.

At least with Strand, there is the unknown possibility of something special. He has physical attributes few quarterbacks in the league can match. With Rush, the Falcons know exactly what they are getting, and it’s not exactly high-level quarterback play.

Outside of the quarterback room, Atlanta is entering the season rather unscathed in terms of injuries. Billy Bowman Jr. will not play as he nurses his way back from an Achilles injury. That was always likely given he just returned to practice; however, Za’Darius Smith, Brandon Dorlus, Kendal Daniels, Zachariah Branch, and Jawaan Taylor were all full participants on Friday. They will be on the field come Sunday.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

AJ Smith-Shawver was seen in the bullpen over the weekend as Atlanta squared off with Philadelphia. Given the struggles he’s had as a starter since returning from Tommy John surgery, this feels like a natural transition. His stuff can still play over one inning, and the numbers back that up. Opponents are hitting just .111 with a .586 OPS against Smith-Shawver in the first inning of his five starts this season.

Reynaldo Lopez will get the start tonight in the series opener against the Chicago Cubs, and this might be his last opportunity to start a game if he doesn’t look a lot better than he did against the Tampa Bay Rays his last time out, allowing six earned runs over 4.2 innings.

Martin Perez will go Tuesday, and for now, the Braves have yet to announce a starting pitcher for Wednesday’s game.

Chris Sale would be on regular rest, so he is an option, but Atlanta has preferred to give him extra rest between starts as we come down the stretch, which could open up an opportunity for JR Ritchie, who really seems to have found his footing in Gwinnett recently. Over his last six starts, he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of them, and he’s coming off a performance in which he tossed six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts. The Braves very well might want to see him against major-league competition before the season ends to gauge whether he could play some type of role for them come October.

The good news is the Braves have four guys who continue to throw the hell out of the ball every time they toe the rubber. Chris Sale has been the second-best pitcher in baseball this season. Martin Perez has been a godsend, particularly at home, where he owns a 0.28 ERA over his last six starts — the best mark by a Braves starting pitcher since 1912. Tyler Mahle has been the acquisition of the entire trade deadline, and Grant Holmes has five shutout outings in his last eight starts.

The fifth spot remains a revolving door, but that’s the case for a lot of teams across Major League Baseball this time of year.

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The rookie Murphy showed some promise earlier in the season with the major-league club over a small sample size, posting a 4.05 ERA over 6.2 innings. However, he really seems to have found his footing down in Gwinnett, giving up just four combined runs over his last five starts.

According to Mark Bowman, Murphy will be utilized out of the bullpen over the next couple of days, suggesting he’s more of a placeholder with the Braves being short on relief arms.

Falter getting designated for assignment is a bit of poor luck. The Braves acquired him in a trade with the Royals at the deadline and immediately optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he did not give up a run over 10.2 innings. That earned him a call to the major-league club, where he also didn’t give up a run over 3.1 innings. He’s tossed 14 scoreless innings in the Braves organization, but unfortunately that was not enough to keep him around with the team needing fresh arms against a potent offensive club like the Cubs.

It’s possible Falter clears waivers and remains with the organization. At the very least, he’s solid organizational depth the Braves could use as the season wanes to keep some of their better arms fresh for the postseason.

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Atlanta’s 20-13 loss on Sunday was an embarrassment to the game. Third-string quarterback Cooper Rush was thrust into a starting role due to the injuries to Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa, and he didn’t look like someone who belongs within 20 feet of an NFL sideline.

The stat line wasn’t horrendous. Rush finished 12/22 for 143 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but those numbers don’t really capture just how unreliable he was under center. The Falcons could not call a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. It looked like Rush was throwing a medicine ball out there, and the Steelers defense quickly realized they didn’t even have to play defense on the back end, focusing exclusively on Bijan Robinson in the backfield.

Which is what makes Robinson’s performance even more impressive. The entire world knew where the ball was going, and he still finished with over 170 yards from scrimmage — split evenly between rushing and receiving — with the Falcons’ lone touchdown on the afternoon, a swing pass that he took 23 yards to the end zone towards the end of the first quarter.

That same pass from Rush actually led to another touchdown later in the game. Unfortunately, it involved TJ Watt going the other way on a throw that was just a dismal effort — tossed with the same velocity you’d find at a youth football game, and that might be disrespecting some of the kids out there.

Which begs the question: were the Falcons ever considering a debut for undrafted rookie Jack Strand? It undoubtedly would have been a tough spot to throw him in there, but it was very obvious early on that Cooper Rush gave Atlanta zero chance of winning unless Pittsburgh completely pissed down their leg. At least with Strand, the threat of a pass past the line of scrimmage would have existed, and he also offers a lot with his legs that would have taken some attention off of Bijan Robinson.

According to head coach Kevin Stefanski, however, that was never something they considered. Instead, they were willing to punt the entire game, because as I will continue to reiterate, Cooper Rush had no business playing in an NFL game yesterday, and if we’re being real, he has no business staying on the Falcons’ roster past this week. It was hands down the worst quarterback performance I’ve seen with my two eyes in my 30 years on this earth, and I had to watch Desmond Ridder start an entire season not long ago.

But that leads us to the much bigger issue at hand: why was Michael Penix Jr. not playing?

Penix was cleared for 11-on-11 work a few weeks ago after suffering a torn ACL last season. He said he’s not quite feeling 100% yet, which is why he opted against playing, but whatever he’s feeling has nothing to do with him being healthy. There is not a world where the Falcons would clear him to play if he wasn’t healthy. This isn’t a hamstring strain; it’s a surgically repaired knee — the third of Penix’s career. If he wasn’t 100%, he wouldn’t be cleared to play.

The issue, as Penix has said several times leading up to the season, is the mental hurdle of getting back on the field and taking hits. It’s a completely reasonable concern given all he’s undergone in the injury department, but that’s something he needs to get over, and fast. A hesitant Michael Penix Jr. is still better than whatever the hell we were forced to watch on Sunday, and he’s not going to get any more mentally ready by sitting on the sideline while this team looks more inept than Buford High School would offensively.

There’s no reason Penix shouldn’t be the starting quarterback for the Falcons’ Week 2 matchup with the Panthers, and if he isn’t, it’s fair to say we have our answer on whether he can be a franchise cornerstone moving forward.

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Atlanta did enough good things to win, but they were ultimately let down by abysmal quarterback play, a gaudy number of penalties, and multiple missed kicks. It’s almost impossible to win with one of those three things occurring, let alone all three. Yet somehow the Falcons found themselves in possession of the ball and an opportunity to tie the game. The only way for that to happen is if there were some positive aspects, and a few things stood out.

The Bijan Robinson Show

When Cooper Rush was named the starting quarterback, we knew it was going to be a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson from the jump. But so did the Steelers, and they really couldn’t do anything to stop him as he racked up north of 170 yards from scrimmage and scored the team’s only touchdown. This is the best running back in football, and Robinson could put up video game numbers this season if Penix can return and at least keep defenses honest with his arm.

Za’Darius Smith Masterclass

The Falcons defense as a whole played about as well as it possibly could have given the circumstances. They only gave up 13 points, and seven of them came off a turnover that gave Pittsburgh an extraordinarily short field. This game would have been ten times worse without them, and veteran pass rusher Za’Darius Smith was arguably the unit’s top performer, racking up two sacks and three tackles for loss. That’s already more sacks than he had in five games with the Eagles last year before he retired.

The Falcons signed Smith out of necessity about a month before the start of the season because of the injury to Jalon Walker. It was about as good as they could have possibly done that late in the offseason, and though it’s just one week, it looks like Smith should be able to fill the void pretty competently.

2026 Rookie Class

I wrote last week how the 2026 rookie class — despite the Falcons not having a pick until the second round — could play a massive role immediately, and that was on full display on Sunday. Avieon Terrell looks like he’s going to be a fixture in Atlanta’s secondary for a long time. The preseason hype surrounding Kendal Daniels proved warranted as he got the start next to Divine Deablo and was the team’s best middle linebacker. And while Zachariah Branch wasn’t really involved offensively because of the quarterback situation, he looked very dangerous as a punt returner. Hopefully we’ll get to see a lot more from him as a receiver whenever Penix or Tua is deemed healthy enough to return to the field.

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Saying Tyler Mahle is better than Tarik Skubal might be a bit of a stretch, but Francoeur’s statement does carry some weight when evaluating the context.

There’s no arguing who has been better up to this point. Mahle owns a 1.25 ERA in his seven starts since being traded, while Skubal has experienced a bump or two since moving to Los Angeles, boasting a 2.93 ERA over the same number of appearances.

Then, when you take into account the price, the question of who was the better trade deadline acquisition really becomes a no-brainer. The Braves got Mahle in what was essentially a salary dump. All they had to do was give up a journeyman reliever and pick up the remaining $2 million left on his salary for this season. Meanwhile, Skubal cost multiple top-100 prospects, and the Dodgers are on the hook for nearly $10 million.

Of course, if Skubal ends up being an integral piece to another Dodgers World Series run, the tune of this debate would change pretty quickly. But right now, Tyler Mahle has been the addition of the entire trade deadline, and if he pitches like he has over the last six weeks come October, he could go down as one of the better midseason acquisitions of all time. Alex Anthopoulos may not be perfect, but this was incredible work by the Braves front office to find a really talented starting pitcher for basically nothing.

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According to Ian Rapoport, Da’Shawn Hand is believed to have suffered a torn quad that could require surgery.

Hand played sparingly on Sunday before going down with the injury, seeing the field for just seven snaps. Despite that, the Falcons defense — particularly when it comes to stopping the run — was among the bright spots against the Steelers, who managed just 58 yards on the ground on 21 attempts.

That was a problem area for the Falcons a year ago, and they spent a lot of their resources this offseason focusing on getting bigger along the interior defensive front. Still, this is a pretty thin group that really couldn’t afford to lose a significant piece like Hand so early in the year, especially after already losing Jalon Walker for the season to a torn ACL.

With this news, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich‘s job just got that much more difficult. The Falcons defense played about as well as it possibly could have on Sunday, and they still lost by seven points to a team that’s far from a legitimate contender. The offense must be miles better moving forward, because expecting that kind of result every week from a defense that’s already down three starters is not realistic.

Breach Inlet Capital is urging Atlanta Braves Holdings to pursue a sale of the Braves, citing the skyrocketing value of franchises across sports and a potential MLB lockout looming in the winter.

“Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC (“Breach Inlet Capital” or “we”) is a top 20 institutional shareholder of Atlanta Braves Holdings (“BATRK” or the “Company”),” a public letter from Breach Inlet Capital to the Board of Directors read, via Business Wire. “We have been patient, long-term investors in the Company for nearly a decade. However, we believe the timing is optimal to pursue a sale of BATRK for the reasons outlined below. While we appreciate that John Malone has effective voting control of the Company, the Board’s fiduciary duties obligate it to act in the best interest of all shareholders. We hope and trust that Mr. Malone and most shareholders would be aligned with our recommendation. We urge the Board to diligently consider all options, including our recommendation for a sale process.”

Breach Inlet Capital specifically mentions the Seattle Seahawks’ recent sale at $9.6 billion as an example of the surging sale prices of sports franchises. The Lakers also recently sold for a record $12.5 billion, and while no MLB franchise is likely to challenge those two, the Padres recently sold for $3.9 billion and the Angels sold for $4 billion — figures the Braves could certainly target to eclipse given their stronghold on the entire market in the Southeast and The Battery, which has become a case study for new arena ventures across all sports.

The letter continues by addressing a potential lockout in the winter. Major League Baseball has done a tremendous job in recent years of increasing popularity, headlined by new rules like the pitch clock, which have helped speed up the time of games. The momentum around the sport has moved forward like a freight train as a result, but a lengthy lockout — like most expect is on the horizon — would bring that positive charge to a screeching halt and then some.

“But this momentum could face a near-term headwind,” the letter continued. “The MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement expires December 1, 2026. Many team owners want a salary cap like other leagues, while players appear adamantly opposed. The consensus view seems to be that this will lead to a lockout. That will be the case if history is a guide. When owners and players last fought over a salary cap in 1994, the players went on strike for 239 days, causing the World Series to be canceled for the first time since 1904. MLB attendance did not exceed its 1993 peak until 13 years later in 2006.

“BATRK’s Board (and John Malone) should not hope that history does not repeat itself and should instead capitalize on the MLB’s current momentum ahead of a potential extended lockout.”

For most fans who follow the Braves closely, a sale of the team would be welcome news. This team generates gobs of cash year after year, and yet the commitment to winning from a payroll perspective doesn’t always seem to be there — at least not in regard to the way the team spends in free agency.

However, while I do feel like a sale of the Braves is probable at some point down the line, I would urge disgruntled fans to be careful what they wish for. This is a club that currently sits sixth in the league in payroll at $260 million. That’s nearly triple where they were a decade ago, so the idea that the Braves are among the cheaper teams in the sport is only for those who refuse to look at the facts.

Could the Braves stand to spend a little more? Of course, but there are a lot more abysmal owners across the four major sports than there are quality ones. The grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

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ESPN recently polled 16 executives and scouts about a number of topics regarding the postseason, including the National League’s team to beat, with the Braves not receiving a single vote. Now, given how strong the NL is, that’s not totally surprising, but it is when considering the Brewers led the way with six votes, the Phillies also received four, and even the Cubs got a vote. It wasn’t all Dodgers, who received the second-most votes behind Milwaukee.

The Braves did receive a couple of votes for “sleeper team” in the National League, but even in that area they were outpaced by the Padres by five votes, with the Cubs also receiving two more votes.

If you went solely by this article, it’d almost be hard to tell that the Braves are even set to compete in the playoffs. They were barely mentioned, but are the executives and scouts included in this poll all that wrong?

October is often defined by pitching and timely hitting. This is a group that’s battle-tested, but it’s not as if they’ve performed their best when the lights have shined on them. The Braves haven’t won a playoff series since 2021 despite making it three times, and nobody is going to buy into this pitching staff on paper. Tyler Mahle, Martin Perez, and Grant Holmes have all been unbelievable for Atlanta this season, but the outside world is right to question whether that can continue against the best offenses in the playoffs.

Perhaps the best case for the Braves to surprise people next month is that baseball is an unpredictable, weird sport, and postseason heroes often come from unsuspecting places. Nothing exemplifies that better than Atlanta’s run back in 2021. That was arguably the worst playoff roster the Braves have had since 2018, yet that happened to be the team that climbed to the top of the mountain, thanks to unforgettable performances from Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Tyler Matzek, and Ian Anderson.

None of those players have been relevant in the league since, but for one month five years ago you would have thought they were destined for the Hall of Fame. The Braves have enough talent to beat anybody. They’ve held up well against the best teams in the National League all season, and you don’t win 90+ games without some special players. But the doubt from the outside world is understandable and, dare I say, warranted given how inconsistently this team has performed over the past four months.

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Elder deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done this year. The Braves desperately needed someone to step up in the wake of several major injuries to the rotation, and he’s gone out and delivered every five nights more often than not. Without him, the Braves might not be sitting here in first place today.

That said, acting as if Elder will return in a month and make an impact in the playoffs is probably not a realistic scenario. He was already a fringe guy for the roster — not somebody who was likely to start a postseason game, and unlikely to contribute out of the bullpen as well, given he has zero experience as a reliever.

Elder’s season is almost certainly over unless some unexpected injuries arise down the line.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

Falcons Week 1 Depth Chart

Quarterbacks 

• Tua Tagovailoa — QB1
• Cooper Rush — QB2
• Jack Strand — QB3
• Michael Penix Jr. — QB4 (Will Be Inactive)

Running Backs

• Bijan Robinson — RB1
• Brian Robinson Jr. — RB2

Wide Receivers

• Drake London — WR1 (Starter)
• Jahan Dotson — WR2 (Starter)
• Olamide Zaccheaus — WR3 (Starter)
• Zachariah Branch — WR4
• Chris Blair — WR5

Tight Ends

• Kyle Pitts — TE1 (Starter)
• Charlie Woerner — TE2 (Starter)
• Austin Hooper — TE3

Left Tackle 

• Jake Matthews — LT1
• Michael Jerrell — LT2
• Cameron Williams — LT3

Left Guard 

• Matthew Bergeron — LG1
• Kyle Hinton — LG2

Center 

• Ryan Neuzil — C1
• Corey Levin — C2

Right Guard 

• Chris Lindstrom — RG1

Right Tackle 

• Jawaan Taylor — RT1
• Michael Jerrell — RT2
• Ethan Onianwa — RT3

Defensive End

• Cameron Thomas — Starter
• Brandon Dorlus — Starter
• Za’Darius Smith — Backup
• Samson Ebukam — Backup
• Yasir Abdullah — Reserve
• Jared Ivey — Reserve

Defensive Tackle

• Maason Smith — Starter
• LaCale London — Starter
• Gervon Dexter Sr. — Backup
• Da’Shawn Hand — Backup

Linebacker

• Divine Deablo — Starter
• Kendal Daniels — Starter
• Harold Perkins Jr. — Backup
• Christian Harris — Backup
• Josh Woods — Reserve

Cornerback

• A.J. Terrell — CB1
• Mike Hughes — CB2
• Avieon Terrell — Nickel (Starter)
• C.J. Henderson — Backup
• Billy Bowman Jr. — Backup
• Mike Ford Jr. — Backup
• Malcom Dewalt IV — Reserve

Safety 

• Jessie Bates III — Starter
• Xavier Watts — Starter
• DeMarcco Hellams — Backup
• Sydney Brown — Backup

Special Teams 

• Nick Folk — K
• Jake Bailey — P
• Liam McCullough — LS

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The Falcons didn’t reinvent the wheel here. Almost all of these were expected, but the one pleasant surprise is the decision to name rookie Kendal Daniels a starter immediately out of the gate. He’ll get the bulk of the reps next to Divine Deablo at inside linebacker, and if the preseason is any indication, Daniels could end up being the best story of the entire season.

Another Falcons rookie, second-round selection Avieon Terrell, is also in line to get the nod for Week 1, which means he will be sharing the secondary with his brother A.J. Terrell.

Much like the pass rush was a beaming bright light of positivity for the Falcons a year ago, the secondary could be the same for the team this season. It’s a really quality mix of elite talent, veteran experience, and high draft picks with immense upside. If the Falcons defense turns out being much better than the rest of the league might expect, the secondary is going to have a big hand in that development.

One rookie who is a bit further down the depth chart than some might have expected is Zachariah Branch. He’s listed as the backup to Olamide Zaccheaus, but given the Falcons are only carrying five receivers, I expect him to get some touches early on in the season. The explosive aspect he can bring to this offense should earn him a lot of playing time.

Back to the defensive side, you might notice Gervon Dexter Sr. and Za’Darius Smith are both listed as backups at their respective positions. However, I would expect them to get a lot of run this Sunday. The defensive line is always a highly rotational group that will see a lot of different faces in and out of the game. I wouldn’t put a lot of weight into where they are on the Week 1 depth chart.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

I am not going to say I disagree with any of those points. Most of them are true, but this is the NFL, and the Falcons still have a ton of talent on the roster with an opportunity to start 1-0 against a team that has plenty of flaws of its own.

The Falcons’ Rushing Attack

Could I really start listing off positives without focusing on arguably the best player in all of football, Bijan Robinson? He’s the star of the show, and with the Falcons limited at the quarterback position, Kevin Stefanski isn’t going to try and hide who they want to get the ball to. This is a head coach who had no problem handing the ball off 300 times per season to Nick Chubb while he was in Cleveland, but unlike Chubb, Robinson can also be a weapon in the passing game. He should get 25+ touches in this one as long as the Falcons manage to keep it close.

A Potentially Elite Secondary?

I’ve said it a couple of times leading up to the season, but the Falcons’ secondary is going to be last year’s version of the pass rush. Xavier Watts and Jessie Bates III make up one of the most intimidating safety duos in the league. Both have a nose for the football and could potentially change this Week 1 matchup in favor of the Falcons. But for the first time in a while, the cornerback room also adds some intrigue.

A.J. Terrell leads the group as one of the premier talents at the position. Mike Hughes has proven to be a serviceable veteran. Avieon Terrell joins the room as a rookie — he’ll get the nod as the team’s starting nickel corner. And while we don’t know if Billy Bowman Jr. will play in Week 1, he’ll certainly have a say as the season progresses, giving the Falcons some enticing depth at a spot they haven’t had it in a long time.

There are obviously still some unknowns with this group, but it’s the one area I feel comfortable buying into on the defensive side of the ball.

The Start of a New Regime

The first game of a new era is always exciting, especially when it’s led by a Falcons legend in Matt Ryan. Everybody wants this to work out, and while the previous regime made it nearly impossible for Atlanta to put together a roster worthy of legitimate contention, we can still learn a lot about this regime in year one — particularly head coach Kevin Stefanski. This is a former two-time Coach of the Year who led the Browns to the playoffs not once but twice. So why can’t he keep the Falcons competitive in a weak NFC South? We’ll get our first glimpse of it all this Sunday.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Robert Suarez began his throwing program over a month ago. The Braves have taken things very cautiously with him, but he’s now firing bullpens pain-free. The next step is to face live batting practice before beginning a rehab assignment.

Let’s say Suarez threw a couple of sessions to live hitters this week. That would put him on track to begin a rehab assignment with just two weeks remaining in the regular season. That’s still enough time for him to return during the regular season and get his feet wet against major-league hitting before the temperature heats up exponentially during the postseason.

Because he’s a reliever, and he’s already throwing bullpen sessions, his rehab assignment really shouldn’t be a lengthy one. I would actually argue he doesn’t even need one.

Regardless, the more pressing questions surround how Robert Suarez might look after such a lengthy layoff. He hasn’t pitched since mid-June and was shut down completely for about two months. Before the injury, he was arguably the most dominant reliever in all of baseball, pitching to a 0.56 ERA over 31 appearances. If the Braves are getting that guy back, their bullpen is going to be a weapon that Walt Weiss can wield early and often throughout a playoff series.

But expecting Suarez to jump back in like nothing happened might be wishful thinking.

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(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

The offense — as has been the case more often than not for a long time — couldn’t get anything going. They mustered just one run, and when that happens, there’s basically no chance of winning. I will say they hit the ball hard everywhere, but it was one of those nights where nothing could find a hole or green grass.

Still, they have to find a way to be better down the stretch. They are performing nowhere near their potential, and if things don’t take a turn for the better quickly, they’ll be headed for another first-round exit come October.

The story of the night, though, was AJ Smith-Shawver — and not in a good way. The 23-year-old was making his fifth start for the Braves since returning from Tommy John surgery, and just about every outing has looked like a mirror image of the last. He’s still throwing way too many uncompetitive pitches, giving up too many free passes, and can’t miss bats consistently.

Junior Caminero and Liam Hicks provided most of the damage against Smith-Shawver with two home runs. He would only allow four runs in total but needed 81 pitches to get through just 3.1 innings.

Smith-Shawver now owns a 7.71 ERA this season. He’s averaging just over 4.0 innings per start, giving up nearly 11 hits per nine innings, 5.6 walks, and 1.7 home runs. Those numbers are gaudy in any scenario, and they are especially discouraging when you’re unable to strike guys out — he’s averaging 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Braves understandably would like to give AJ Smith-Shawver as much runway as possible leading up to the postseason. There’s a world where his talented arm could give them something, especially over an extended seven-game series. And everybody should be reminded it’s his fifth start since spending 14 months on the shelf. It should be expected that he’s not anywhere close to the top of his game.

But continuing to trot him out as a starting pitcher doesn’t make a lot of sense right now. The Braves did lose Bryce Elder to knee surgery, which takes away an option in the rotation, but they are gaining one in Reynaldo Lopez. That gives them five quality starters who can take the team the rest of the way as they try to finish off the division.

Smith-Shawver could still have a role for this club out of the bullpen. Opponents are hitting just .111 against him with a .576 OPS in the first inning. But as a starting pitcher this year, it’s probably best for the Braves to continue with their other options.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

They say the biggest improvement a college football team makes comes between Week 1 and Week 2, and now we finally have a meaningful data point on every team to go along with what we thought entering the season.

For what it’s worth, there has already been some wild line movement heading into Week 2. Back in July, I bet Oklahoma +3 at Michigan as a look-ahead line, and after Michigan basically lost to Western Michigan, that number has completely flipped to Oklahoma -6.5. I also grabbed Air Force +6 at home against North Dakota St when that line opened Sunday–and that would probably be my favorite bet of the weekend if the number were still available. Instead, the Falcons have been hammered by the market, with NDSU now sitting around -2.5.

I love both bets at the numbers I got, but with the market having moved so drastically, I can’t include them on this week’s article, so I have fewer favorites than usual. With that in mind, here are the two bets I like most for Week 2.

2026 record: 4-2

FAU +6 vs Navy

I took a 25-1 flier on FAU to win the American before the season because I believe this offense can be electric again in Year 2 under Zach Kittley, and I liked what the Owls did in the transfer portal to address a defense that was dreadful a year ago. FAU retooled the front seven with productive additions such as Ohio edge Jay Crable, SMU defensive tackle Blake Burris and Kansas linebacker Joseph Sipp, while returning established players like Leon Hart and CJ Doggette. I’m not putting much stock into Florida hanging 66 on the Owls last week. That was a superior SEC opponent playing its first game under new coach Jon Sumrall, and the Gators were in a perfect spot to come out trying to make a statement.

This matchup should look very different from Navy’s 42-32 win over FAU last season. Navy lost a ton of offensive production, including three of the program’s best skill players in recent memory: QB Blake Horvath, RB Alex Tecza, and RB/WR Eli Heidenreich. Navy should still have one of the better offensive lines in the G6, but there are questions almost everywhere else.

New QB Braxton Woodson has experience in the system and is an explosive runner, but he has not shown himself to be anywhere near the passer Horvath was. That matters because Horvath’s ability to punish defenses over the top was part of what made Navy’s option attack so difficult to defend. Without him, Tecza and Heidenreich, I expect this offense to be considerably less explosive.

Navy also has important pieces to replace defensively, particularly up front. All-American defensive tackle Landon Robinson was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year last season, and replacing his production is no small task. The pass rush is a legitimate concern, which is exactly where FAU should be capable of taking advantage.

The Owls are built to test this Navy defense. Zach Kittley’s up-tempo, pass-heavy offense has one of the best QBs in the AAC in Caden Veltkamp and two of the best receivers in all of G6 with Easton Messer and Dominique Henry. If Navy cannot consistently pressure Veltkamp, those receivers should have opportunities to make plays against a secondary that had issues throughout much of last season.

There’s already been evidence of that problem in Navy’s opener. In Week 1, FCS Towson hit for several explosive passes against the Navy secondary, and these were not meaningless garbage-time plays. Towson connected on a 48-yard touchdown early in the second quarter and then hit a 30-yard touchdown later in the quarter. If Navy is surrendering multiple explosive passes to an FCS offense while the game is still competitive, then Veltkamp, Messer and Henry should be capable of stressing this secondary considerably more.

FAU also moved the ball against Navy last season, scoring 32 points and finishing with 450 yards despite turning the ball over three times. FAU finished with an abysmal -21 turnover margin on the season, one of the worst marks in the country. There should be some positive turnover regression coming, and if the Owls simply take better care of the football this season, this offense is talented enough to score plenty of points against a Navy defense that I believe has taken a step backward.

There is also a situational advantage for FAU, with Navy having to make the long trip from Maryland to Boca Raton for its first FBS test of the season after opening at home against Towson. September heat and humidity in South Florida can become a factor, particularly for a defense whose depth along the line is already a question. FAU also appears to have an edge on special teams after adding SMU transfer Collin Rogers, the Mustangs’ all-time leading scorer and a Lou Groza Award watch-list kicker. If this game is close–and being at home–it gives FAU all the more of an advantage.

My power ratings make this Navy -2.5, so I love getting nearly a touchdown with FAU at home. I’ll call my shot and say FAU wins outright, but I’ll gladly take the six points with the home dog.

South Alabama +10 @ Tulane

I make Tulane -7 here, so getting South Alabama +10 gives me enough value to take the points, especially in a game with a low total.

Tulane’s offense looked completely out of sorts in Will Hall’s debut against Duke. The Green Wave managed just 258 total yards, 10 first downs and 54 rushing yards, went 3-for-14 on third down, and allowed three sacks in a 17-3 loss. Starting quarterback Zeon Chriss-Gremillion was pulled at halftime for Kadin Semonza, who will now get the start this week, while standout running back Jamauri McClure’s injury adds further questions to an already struggling offense.

More broadly, I think this Tulane team has taken a sizable step backward in both roster talent and coaching. Jon Sumrall is gone, and I’m not convinced Hall — whose last head-coaching stop ended poorly at Southern Miss — can immediately maintain the standard Tulane has set in recent years. The Green Wave were also an unsustainable 5-0 in one-score games last season, the kind of record that typically regresses toward even over time. With a weaker roster and what I view as a downgrade on the sideline, I expect some of that close-game fortune to swing the other way this season.

I’m not particularly high on South Alabama, but there were encouraging signs in its 39-14 win over Southeastern Louisiana, most notably 241 rushing yards. If the Jaguars can establish the run again, they should be able to sustain drives, shorten the game and attack a Tulane defense that just allowed Duke roughly 250 yards on the ground.

I considered the under at around 49.5, but I’d rather take the points with the Jags, who I think can run the ball successfully against a Tulane offense that hasn’t shown it can create much separation. And for what it’s worth, Mobile to New Orleans is a very manageable road trip.

My number is Tulane -7, and I think the market is still giving the Green Wave too much credit for what this program has been in previous years rather than what this current roster looks like. In what I expect to be a lower-scoring game, South Alabama +10 is too many points.

Other Thoughts

Ohio St +1.5 @ Texas — No strong opinion here, but I do trust Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes offense more than the Horns. I’m not really a Sark guy, either. No bet from me, but I’d take whatever points I can get.

USF +4 @ Army — I was slightly concerned with USF’s lackluster offense last weekend, but I think the Bulls can turn it around in Week 2, plus I’m lower on Army, who replace a ton from last year’s defense. In a lower-scoring game, USF can hang around.

Rutgers +4 @ Boston College — The loser will be crowned the worst team in Power 4 (by my ratings). I expect Rutgers’ best effort off the embarrassing UMass loss, and I think the QB change to AJ Surace could be a positive. The Scarlet Knights also have a big rest advantage here. This is a coin flip, so I’ll take the points.

North Texas +4 vs UNLV — I’ve been very vocal that I’m down on UNLV, and I was impressed by North Texas, who actually outgained Indiana last week. I missed the best number here, but I would fade UNLV on a second straight road trip after going to Hawaii.

Boise St -7.5 vs Memphis — I’m slightly worried about a letdown spot for Boise after nearly stealing one in Eugene. But I hate this more for Memphis, who take a second long road trip this early in the season. Boise looked great in the trenches, which is where you have to counter the Tigers’ strength. I trust the Smurf Turf and the Broncos’ supporting cast a little more.

Georgia Tech +13.5 vs Tennessee — This screams overreaction to me. Georgia Tech looked bad in lots of areas, but laying two touchdowns with Tennessee and a freshman QB in his first big road test? I’ll pass. Since becoming head coach, Brent Key is 13-6 ATS as an underdog and 4-0 ATS as a home underdog. I’d lean to grabbing the points.

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(Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire)

Bailey Falter has been selected to the major-league roster. In a corresponding move, Elieser Hernandez has been designated for assignment. Additionally, Reynaldo Lopez returns from his rehabilitation assignment. He will start tonight, and Bryce Elder has been placed on the IL after undergoing knee surgery.

With Elder’s season likely over, Lopez has a chance to earn a spot on the postseason roster, whether that’s as a starter or out of the bullpen. In 71.2 innings so far this season, he boasts a respectable 3.64 ERA.

Falter takes Hernandez’s spot on the roster, and it will be the first time we see him in a Braves uniform after he was acquired from the Royals at the trade deadline. In limited appearances for Kansas City, the numbers were an eyesore — a 13.97 ERA over 9.2 innings.

However, Falter has been lights out for Gwinnett, allowing zero runs over 10.2 innings. I wouldn’t expect to see him very often in high-leverage situations, but the Braves have made Tyler Mahle look like a Cy Young candidate since he made the move to Atlanta. Perhaps they’ve similarly helped Falter with his repertoire, and he can show why he’s deserving of a spot on the postseason roster.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

In that time, there have been several significant developments that have really cleared things up with just three weeks remaining until the postseason.

Removed From Rankings: Bryce Elder

It was always pretty unlikely Bryce Elder started a playoff game for the Braves, but now that he’s undergone minor surgery on his knee that will keep him out for 3-4 weeks, that closes the door on any ideas.

5. AJ Smith-Shawver (Previous Ranking: 2)

Smith-Shawver might have the most upside of anybody on this list, and I took that into account early on in these rankings. But it’s now been five starts, and his lack of control coupled with his inability to miss bats consistently is beyond concerning. He can’t be trusted to start a playoff game right now, and time is running out for him to change that narrative. However, I could see him contributing out of the bullpen come October.

4. Reynaldo Lopez (Previous Ranking: N/A)

I didn’t have Lopez ranked in my previous editions because he was dealing with an injury, but he’s returning tonight to face the Rays. It’s probably unlikely that he shows enough over his final couple of outings to earn a start come the playoffs, but I wouldn’t rule anything out with this group.

3. Martin Perez (Previous Ranking: 4)

Perez has been a godsend for the Braves this season, pitching to a 3.25 ERA over 124.2 innings. It’s absolutely wild he was signed to a minor-league deal in the offseason and then designated for assignment by the Braves earlier in the season. Without him, this team probably isn’t in first place, and while he certainly could end up starting in the playoffs, I think Atlanta’s other two options provide a little more upside.

2. Grant Holmes (Previous Ranking: 3)

What a finish to the season Grant Holmes is experiencing. In four of his last seven starts, he has gone six innings without allowing a single run, pitching to a 2.27 ERA over that stretch with a 3.18 FIP. If he keeps pitching like that over the final three weeks, there shouldn’t be much of a question about who gets the ball in a hypothetical Game 3 for the Braves.

1. Tyler Mahle (Previous Ranking: 1)

There isn’t any guessing about who should be starting Game 2 anymore. Since being acquired at the trade deadline, Tyler Mahle has pitched to a 1.24 ERA and 2.82 FIP over his first six starts. Not only has he already done enough to earn the job, but most of Braves country is probably feeling pretty thrilled with the idea of him being paired with Chris Sale at the top of the rotation entering the postseason.

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(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

If Atlanta can take care of business inside their own division, the lowest they can be seeded is third. There’s still an outside chance of them sneaking into the top two spots in the National League and earning a first-round bye, but the Dodgers and Brewers have a pretty firm stranglehold on those spots for now, with the Braves 4.5 games behind Milwaukee and 3.0 games behind Los Angeles.

With three weeks remaining before the postseason, it’s time for the first edition of predicting the Braves’ playoff roster, which I will do weekly leading up to October.

Predicting The Braves’ Playoff Roster

Starting Pitchers

1. Chris Sale
2. Tyler Mahle
3. Grant Holmes
4. Reynaldo Lopez
5. AJ Smith-Shawver

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I’m doing this now with the assumption that the Braves will be in a three-game Wild Card series. So, there is obviously no need for five starting pitchers. Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle will pitch the first two games, and in the event of a winner-take-all Game 3, it will be an all-hands-on-deck approach. I imagine Grant Holmes would get the ball to start that game, but Lopez and Smith-Shawver have enough upside to make this roster as potential relief options.

Bullpen

1. Raisel Iglesias
2. Robert Suarez
3. Didier Fuentes
4. Dylan Lee
5. Brent Suter
6. Dylan Dodd
7. Victor Mederos
8. Ray Kerr

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The big assumption here is that Robert Suarez returns from injury in time to be added to the playoff roster. Based on all of the reports, it looks like that is going to happen unless there is a setback.

After that, most of these decisions feel cut and dried. The Braves could go with Martin Perez over Ray Kerr, Lopez, or Smith-Shawver. They might prefer a veteran over any of those guys, but I omitted him for the time being. If this were a five-game series, Perez would have been included.

Catchers

1. Sean Murphy
2. Drake Baldwin

Infielders

1. Ozzie Albies
2. Matt Olson
3. Austin Riley
4. Mauricio Dubon
5. Ha-Seong Kim

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The only question here is Ha-Seong Kim. He had a couple of moments over the last couple of weeks but has quickly come down to earth in a big way. I would have considered leaving him off, but I just don’t think there are any better options, and he’s already proven he can come up with big hits in a pinch.

Designated Hitter

1. Dominic Smith

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This is another instance where Smith hasn’t really done much to make the roster. He’s appeared in just one game this month, going 0-for-2 with a walk against the Phillies. However, I would love to see someone show me a better option.

Outfielders

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. Lane Thomas
3. Mike Yastrzemski
4. Michael Harris II
5. Brewer Hicklen

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The top four here are obviously locks, and I think Brewer Hicklen is as well. He hasn’t played a ton this season, only 12 games. But in those 12 games, he’s hitting .364 with an OPS over 1.000. He also offers value as a pinch-runner, which is an underrated aspect of putting together a playoff roster.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

Tua Tagovailoa does not look like the answer, and Michael Penix Jr.’s injury history is beyond worrisome. Given this new regime had nothing to do with drafting the former Washington standout, he’s going to have to show a lot for the team to commit to him beyond this year.

The good news? Next year’s quarterback class is absolutely loaded, with Bleacher Report’s latest mock draft having the Falcons take Notre Dame’s CJ Carr with the 8th overall pick.

“Concern continues to grow in Atlanta as the Falcons try to find out whether Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. can be their long-term answer at quarterback,” Brent Sobieski writes. “Clearly, neither proved themselves in this scenario. The position’s top tier of prospects has already been chosen, but Notre Dame’s CJ Carr has a skill set that should serve him well as part of Kevin Stefanski’s offensive scheme.”

Carr was my pick to win the Heisman entering the season, and while his performance in Week 1 against Wisconsin wasn’t anything to write home about, he still ended the game with 239 yards through the air, tossing two touchdowns and no interceptions.

He’s not the freak athlete who’s going to burn defenses with his legs like you see a lot at the top of the first round these days, but he’s a surgeon in the pocket who understands where defenses are vulnerable and gets the ball out on time. He’s also got a big arm that he trusts to push the ball downfield and into tight windows.

Carr looks like a quarterback prospect who’s going to be taken in the first round if he decides to leave Notre Dame. However, there is going to be a lot of shuffling with top prospects this year. It really feels like there are at least five quarterbacks who could be in the conversation for the #1 overall pick depending on how this season shakes out.

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(Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire)

That’s a testament to what has been a marvelous pitching staff, and that was the case again yesterday, as the Braves shut out the Nationals with five different pitchers taking the mound due to a lengthy rain delay.

Offensively, it was once again Sean Murphy who helped Atlanta strike first with a three-run homer, and then Ronald Acuña Jr. added a three-run shot of his own — the 200th of what’s already an incredible career for the 28-year-old out of La Guaira, Venezuela.

Another promising sign for the offense? Ha-Seong Kim added another hit to his tally, a roped double down the left field line, giving him four hits in his last two games and six in his last 16 at-bats. To put that in perspective, Kim had just five hits in his first 86 at-bats of the season — and this looks like something that might actually be sustainable.

He’s rightfully gotten a lot of grief this year, but he missed the first couple of months with an injury and the Braves didn’t exactly give him much time on the farm to find a rhythm. When he returned to the majors, we all know about the struggles, but again, the opportunities were limited. With a little confidence and a touch of increased playing time, Kim looks like an entirely different player than the one we saw a couple of months ago.

The same can be said about Sean Murphy. Since the Braves started giving him regular at-bats a little over a week ago, he’s hitting .393 with three home runs and a 1.254 OPS. Murphy has always been a guy who needs to play every day to find success with the stick, so it was quite surprising the Braves kept starting guys like Jim Jarvis over him — when one has a track record as an All-Star, and the other is a rookie with a sub-.600 OPS.

Thankfully, whatever the hell that line of thinking was has fallen by the wayside. Now Murphy and Kim — two outcasts many would have liked to see designated for assignment — lead the Braves into the most pivotal stretch of their season, beginning with a four-game set in Philadelphia that could essentially put the NL East to bed if it goes the right way.

That’s a storyline I never expected to be typing in September.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

As we sit here less than two weeks from the first snap of the season, the Falcons still aren’t ready to name a starting quarterback.

Falcons GM Ian Cunningham says the team has not identified it's Week 1 starting QB. "Not yet."

— Joe Patrick (@JoePatrick) September 2, 2026

Most assume it’ll be Tua or Penix under center in Week 1, and the decision really seems to come down to Penix’s health. Tua had every opportunity to take the job and run with it during the preseason, and he laid stinker after stinker.

If Penix were 100%, this probably wouldn’t be much of a decision. But he was only cleared for 11-on-11 work last week, and how comfortable he feels in a brand new offense is really unknown to the public. The Falcons know, however, and they’re probably pretty damn sure who’s starting Week 1. They just have no incentive to make the Steelers aware of their plans until the last possible second.

On Gervon Dexter, Cunningham said that when you can get a player of that caliber for that price, you pull the trigger.

Falcons GM Ian Cunningham on Gervon Dexter trade

"When you can get a player of Gervon's Caliber for the price we paid, we feel its in our best interest to do that."

— Darius Hayes (@dhayessports37) September 2, 2026

Cunningham also mentioned that Dexter is a late bloomer to the game of football, having spent his younger years more focused on basketball, and highlighted how big the combination of him and Maason Smith will be in the middle of the Falcons defensive front.

That will be a focal point come Week 1. The Falcons pass rush was the most promising storyline of the entire 2025 campaign. For two decades it was totally anemic, but they finally broke that stretch by finishing second in the league in sacks with a franchise-record 57.

So what does the new regime decide to do? Essentially blow the whole thing up. There are a ton of new faces across the defensive line who’ll be taking starting reps this season, and we should know pretty quickly whether this front office has an eye for talent at one of the most important position groups in the sport.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Zach Harrison is back after clearing waivers. He’s been added to the practice squad along with Khalid Kareem and Jammie Robinson. In corresponding moves, Cameron Sample and Cobee Bryant have been released from the practice squad.

We have made the following roster moves:

– Signed Khalid Kareem, Zach Harrison and Jammie Robinson to PS

– Released Cam Sample and Cobee Bryant from PShttps://t.co/EMzAt5stq4 pic.twitter.com/fV0LaNXyAX

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) September 2, 2026

The most notable addition is Zach Harrison, who was shockingly placed on waivers earlier this week after recording 4.5 sacks in seven games last season. It’s even more shocking that no team wanted to take a flier on him, which tells me there’s probably more to the story that we normal folks aren’t privy to.

Khalid Kareem is back with the organization after spending the last two seasons in Atlanta, appearing in six games total. Cameron Sample is out after failing to make the initial 53-man roster, and so is cornerback Cobee Bryant, who appeared in seven games last season for the Falcons after making the squad as an undrafted free agent.

It’s important to remember that everything is still very fluid right now. There will be a lot more moves before the Falcons take the field against the Steelers next Sunday.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

“There’s still time for Michael Penix Jr. to show he can be the guy moving forward, and the fact that he was finally cleared for 11-on-11 team drills last week after an offseason of injury recovery is a good sign,” Graziano writes. “But this is a new front office and coaching staff, different from the one that drafted Penix. Throughout the offseason, the sense we got was that the Falcons were leaning toward starting Tua Tagovailoa over Penix, even if both are healthy. The problem was that Tagovailoa struggled, and now Atlanta isn’t sure he’s the guy for this season, let alone the future.”

I’m not sure there was a soul inside the Falcons building that truly believed Tagovailoa was going to start games past this season. He has a lengthy injury history with concussions and was horrendous last season for the Dolphins. The only reason the acquisition made sense is because the timeline of Penix’s recovery was unknown, and Tua was signed to a veteran minimum deal. It was wise business by the Falcons, but nobody expected him to be the guy.

Penix, on the other hand, flashed at times during his first full season as a starting quarterback. There’s no way of really knowing what he could be at this level. The only thing we do know is that his injury history is extremely concerning. He’s already suffered five season-ending injuries, including three different ACL injuries, dating back to his college days.

Because of that, the Falcons opted to carry four quarterbacks on the roster! That’s not a sign of an organization that believes they have their next franchise quarterback in the building. I just can’t believe Graziano put this on paper and dared to call this bold. This might be the least bold take in the history of takes.

The Falcons haven’t had a franchise quarterback since Matt Ryan was traded to the Colts. I’m not sure if Graziano heard, but that was more than a half-decade ago, and Ryan is now the team’s President of Football. Of course there’s a very good chance they are in the market for a quarterback next offseason — even if there’s still a glimmer of hope that Penix could be much better than many expect once he’s 100%.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

Here’s how they’ll line up their pitching at Citizens Bank Park.

Braves-Phillies Probables

Friday: Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Saturday: Martin Perez vs. Zack Wheeler
Sunday: Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola
Monday: Bryce Elder vs. Jesus Luzardo

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The Braves won’t be catching any breaks against a Philadelphia team that gets to line up its four best starters over this series, and it begins with a battle between two guys right in the thick of the Cy Young race.

The last time we saw Chris Sale toe the rubber, he struck out 11 in a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers. The Braves could need a similar performance Friday if they’re going to start the series on the right foot.

Saturday night features two veterans who couldn’t be more polar opposite. Zack Wheeler has been one of the most consistently great starting pitchers of the last decade — a 36-year-old still striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings.

Perez isn’t going to do that, but he’s actually the one with the better ERA this season, 3.05 compared to 3.31. That’s remarkable considering the Braves designated him for assignment earlier in the year and every team passed on him, which is the only reason he found himself back in Atlanta. Without that chain of events, it’s probably not the Braves entering this series with a 4.0-game lead.

Sunday’s matchup is between two guys who are mirror images of each other right now. Tyler Mahle really struggled in San Francisco, but since the move to Atlanta he owns a 1.48 ERA over five starts. Nola wasn’t traded, but he was abysmal this year until recently — he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts, recording a 2.25 ERA.

Monday’s showdown is the biggest mismatch of them all. Bryce Elder has done a nice job showing up every five days and giving the Braves a reasonable chance to win, but he can’t hold a candle to Jesus Luzardo, who’s among the filthiest left-handers in the sport and having a career year — a 3.02 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

I’ve already made some necessary changes to my power ratings after seeing teams like NC State and TCU perform well below where I had them entering the season. Last week’s Stanford -3.5 winner needed some late drama, but I felt the result was deserved. The Cardinal controlled Hawaii for most of the first three quarters, built a 23-7 lead, and ultimately showed why I had them rated higher than the market entering the game. A fun, early-season winner. Now we move into Week 1, where the schedule gets much deeper. Here are my favorite bets of the week.

2026 record: 2-1

Colorado +7 @ Georgia Tech

I’m trusting my numbers on this one. My power ratings make Georgia Tech only a 4.5-point favorite here, so I see these teams as much closer than the market does. Getting a full touchdown with Colorado is enough for me to take a shot on the Buffaloes.

There is some urgency here for Colorado. The schedule gets difficult quickly, with trips to Northwestern and Baylor and a home game against Texas Tech all coming before the bye week. That puts added emphasis on Deion Sanders and his staff getting off to a good start and building some momentum before that stretch arrives.

I’m expecting a fairly significant step back from Georgia Tech after losing so many important pieces from last year’s 9-4 team, including both coordinators, OC Buster Faulkner (Florida) and DC Blake Gideon (Texas). Gone is QB Haynes King, who was the engine of that offense, and backup quarterback Aaron Philo transferred to Florida. Receivers Malik Rutherford and Eric Rivers are off to the NFL, and arguably the two best offensive linemen are gone as well, with Harrison Moore transferring to Florida and Keylan Rutledge becoming a first-round NFL draft pick.

That leaves Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza taking over at quarterback. Maybe he turns out to be great, but I’m skeptical–if he were really viewed as a future star, it’s fair to wonder why Curt Cignetti was willing to let him leave Bloomington. Mendoza will also be working with a receiving corps that has plenty of questions after losing so much production. Georgia Tech brought in transfers from Elon, Bowling Green and Cal, and that’s a lot of projection at a position that was already hit hard by departures.

The defense has some pieces I like, but the turnover is significant there too. The defensive line lost its top three players, including one to the NFL and another to Ohio State. The secondary also lost its top four contributors, with three of them heading to the NFL. That’s a lot of new faces to break in at once, and I don’t love the matchup against a Colorado offense that should play fast and force Georgia Tech to defend the entire width of the field.

For Colorado, this is Julian Lewis‘ opportunity to take over the offense. The former four-star recruit steps into the starting role under new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, who comes over from Sacramento State. Colorado lost some receivers, most notably Omarion Miller to Arizona State, but I really like what they added through the portal. DeAndre Moore comes over from Texas, Kam Perry arrives from Miami-Ohio, and Danny Scudero from San Jose State may be my favorite addition. Scudero feels like an ideal fit for this offense and should see plenty of targets out of the slot.

There are losses on the Colorado defense too, but I think some of the replacements could be upgrades. Ezra Christensen from New Mexico State and Santana Hopper, an All-AAC performer at Tulane, give them some interesting pieces along the defensive line. I also think the secondary has improved from a group that struggled badly last year. Boo Carter is a former four-star prospect from Tennessee with plenty of talent, and I really like the addition of Vanderbilt transfer Randon Fontenette at safety.

The travel is obviously a concern with Colorado heading east, but I think this line is being influenced too much by what these teams looked like a year ago. Colorado finished 3-9, while Georgia Tech went 9-4, and I think the market is carrying too much of that perception into this matchup. I expect Georgia Tech to take a step back after losing so many key contributors, while Colorado has upgraded in several important spots and should be much more competitive than it was a year ago. At a key number like +7, I’m willing to grab the points.

Arkansas State +11.5 @ Memphis

It’s pretty wild to already have a legitimate situational spot in Week 1, but I think we have one here fading Memphis. The Tigers are coming off a program-building 27-21 win at UNLV that gave the Charles Huff era an immediate jolt of energy. Memphis is suddenly one of the bigger Group of 6 stories in the country, with plenty of people already talking about a possible run to the College Football Playoff. And that’s exactly why I like Arkansas State in this spot.

Memphis has to come home after a long trip to Las Vegas, enjoy all the attention that came with last week’s win, and then somehow avoid looking ahead to a massive Week 2 trip to Boise State. A win on the blue turf would go a long way toward establishing Memphis as the top G6 playoff contender. That makes this feel like a classic sandwich spot, even this early in the season.

My power ratings make this Memphis -10.5, so I don’t show a massive numerical edge. This bet is more about the combination of matchup and situation. I’m also higher than the market on Arkansas State this season and think the Red Wolves are a legitimate longshot contender in the Sun Belt at 12-1 odds.

Butch Jones will hand the offense to Trey Owens, the former four-star recruit who began his career at Texas. For a first-time starter, he walks into a pretty favorable situation. Arkansas State returns a proven backfield, first-team All-Sun Belt receiver Chauncy Cobb, and an experienced offensive line.

That offensive line is especially important in this matchup. The Red Wolves return four starters up front and are anchored by first-team All-Sun Belt left guard Tristian Smith. Memphis’ defensive line was dominant last weekend and looks like one of the best units in the Group of 6, so Arkansas State having experience and continuity up front gives them a much better chance of staying on schedule offensively and keeping Owens comfortable since he’s not much of a running threat.

The bigger concern is on defense. Arkansas State is breaking in several new faces, particularly in the front seven, and there could be some early chemistry issues. But the secondary–which was a major weakness last season–looks more talented on paper after the portal additions, led by Kennesaw transfer Five Hamilton, who has a chance to be one of the better safeties in the Sun Belt. If even a few of those defensive additions hit (and I think they will), the ceiling for this team is much higher than it was a year ago.

Historically, teams making their season debut in Week 1 against an opponent that already played in Week 0 are 149-109 ATS (58%). Arkansas State has the fresher legs, while also getting the benefit of a full game of Memphis film before taking the field themselves.

This bet is ultimately built around a Memphis letdown. The Tigers are coming off an emotional road win, they’ve received a ton of praise all week, and they have one of the biggest Group of 6 games of the season waiting for them in Boise. Arkansas State has enough talent and experience on offense to keep this competitive, especially if Memphis comes out even a little flat. At +11.5, I will take the points.

Nevada +3 vs Western Kentucky

You’ve got to try to grab the full field goal with Nevada here, but I also think the Wolf Pack have a legitimate chance to win this game outright. I don’t hate a small moneyline sprinkle at all.

I’m lower on Western Kentucky than the market. The Hilltoppers lost five of their top six pass-catchers from last season, and the offensive line was hit even harder, losing eight of its top nine players. That unit was a major question throughout camp, and now it has to deal with what could be the strength of Nevada’s team.

The Wolf Pack defensive line has drawn a lot of praise this offseason, led by Dylan LaBarbera, who is the best player in this game. LaBarbera is up for Mountain West DPOY and has legitimate NFL upside. He could be a problem for a rebuilt WKU front. Nevada has also gotten positive reviews on its rebuilt secondary, with All-Mountain West corner Aiden Walker leading the way after what the staff has called a strong offseason.

Western Kentucky has questions at linebacker too after losing its top five players at the position, including Jaylen Wester and Koron Heyward. That gives Nevada a chance to find some success offensively even while it works through uncertainty at quarterback.

And I like the foundation around whoever wins that QB job, which could be returning sophomore Carter Jones. Nevada returns three starters on the offensive line, including all-conference tackles Jack Foster and Zach Cochnauer, while adding help on the interior through the portal. For an offense built around timing and rhythm, having a competent line is a huge difference from where this unit has been in recent years.

There’s also a regression angle here. Nevada was one of the unluckier teams in the Mountain West last season and finished with a conference-worst -12 turnover margin. Those things tend to move back towards zero over time, and I think there’s a good chance Nevada is better than last year’s record suggests while getting some positive regression with turnovers and close-game luck.

These two teams met last year when Nevada went on the road and led Western Kentucky 13-10 in the third quarter before the game got away from them late. The final score was 31-16, but it was misleading. Nevada actually slightly outgained WKU, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and the final margin was padded by a late pick-six thrown by the Wolf Pack. I think Nevada may be the better version of itself this time around when WKU has to make a long return trip west to Reno, which sits at more than 4,400 feet of elevation.

We also just saw Conference USA foe Jacksonville State make a long road trip and get overwhelmed by Mountain West team North Dakota State. Conference USA is still the weakest Group of 6 league in my view, and I’m not eager to lay points on the road with one of its teams in this kind of spot. At Nevada +3, I’m taking the points. I think this is much closer to a coin-flip game than the market suggests, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Pack win outright late Saturday night.

Other Thoughts

Toledo +10.5 @ Michigan St –– Pat Fitzgerald is an uninspiring hire for Sparty–this team is bad. I like the coaching hire for Toledo, and the Rockets still have some good players. They can win in East Lansing.

West Virginia -20.5 vs Coastal Carolina — Rich Rodriguez has a roster he likes. They won’t contend for the Big 12 title or anything, but they’re much better than last year. Star RB transfer Cam Cook will run all over Coastal here. This could be very ugly.

Tennessee -46.5 vs Furman — Doesn’t this feel like 59-6, Vols? Heupel puts his foot down on these teams and wants to show off five-star QB Faizon Brandon.

Wyoming +3.5 @ Colorado St — One of my favorite offseason portal additions was new Wyoming QB Tyler Hughes from William & Mary. He should spark this offense that was dead last year. Jim Mora is a great hire in the long run for Colorado State, but I think they’re vulnerable in game one.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

That doesn’t appear to be the case based on the Falcons’ roster decisions, and even more so, he was spotted at practice for the first time on Thursday.

It would still be fairly shocking if we saw Bowman strap it up and play much during the Falcons’ Week 1 matchup against the Steelers, but he’s clearly not too far off, which is going to be a massive boost to a secondary that could be the story of the Falcons’ 2026 season — much like the pass rush was a year ago.

A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes, Avieon Terrell, and Billy Bowman Jr. are a really quality group of top cornerbacks with a nice blend of experience and youth. Then on the back end, there are Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts, who have the potential to be the best safety duo in the league this season. Even DeMarcco Hellams is a quality third safety option, and Bowman Jr. also has experience at the position.

This group could surprise a lot of people across the league this season who aren’t in tune with the Falcons’ roster.

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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

“Under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves eschewed the all-in move, instead upgrading around the margins by adding Tyler Mahle, Lane Thomas and Brent Suter,” Johnny Flores Jr. writes. “Consider the moves a massive success. Mahle, who arrived in Atlanta with a 5.13 ERA, has pitched to a 1.48 mark in five starts, going for at least six innings in four of them. Suter has a 1.26 mark as a multi-inning arm, and only Thomas has been middling, though he wasn’t anticipated to be a world-beater.”

Now it’s ESPN and MLB.com praising Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, with ESPN ranking the Braves’ trade deadline the best of the bunch.

“The Braves’ deadline would stand out if the only move made by Alex Anthopoulos was to acquire starter Tyler Mahle from the Giants,” Bradford Doolittle writes. “That’s how good Mahle has been, posting a 1.48 ERA over five starts and rolling up 1.4 bWAR in his first month as a Brave. It’s not really out of nowhere. He has been a very good pitcher for a long time, including last season when he posted a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts for Texas. But he was just 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA for San Francisco before the trade. He allowed five runs in his last start for the Giants — the same number of runs he gave up over his first five starts for the Braves.”

Mahle’s the unquestioned prize of the trade deadline. The Braves saw something in him that nobody else in the league did and were able to acquire him for pennies on the dollar. They didn’t even have to give up a prospect to get him — all they had to do was pick up the remaining $2 million left on his contract for this season. Given how expensive high-quality starting pitching is to acquire at the trade deadline, this could go down as one of the best deadline deals in recent memory if Mahle goes on to pitch similarly come the postseason.

Unsurprisingly, the Mahle addition also received the top spot in MLB.com’s rankings of the most impactful trade deadline moves.

“The Braves were a Skubal suitor, but like every other club, they had to pivot after the jewel of the Deadline class was shipped to Los Angeles. Atlanta landed on the 31-year-old Mahle, who had a 5.13 ERA across 18 starts with the Giants and missed about a month of action earlier in the year due to a hamstring strain,” Brian Murphy writes. “Once the Deadline passed, he didn’t even make it onto our list of the top 25 trades, but he has been everything the Braves could have wanted for their injury-ravaged rotation.”

You really can’t argue about whether the Braves improved at the trade deadline. They are in a much better spot heading into October now than they were a month ago. Even the additions of Brent Suter and Lane Thomas have made an impact.

However, the question still remains whether the Braves did enough. Alex Anthopoulos had prospects at his disposal to do more, and there remain holes in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen that could have been patched up. If this team does come up just short in a series next month, it’s going to be a sickening what-if everybody is going to have to live with for a long time.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

That’s something that should make the next few years incredibly exhilarating. Even when the Braves had one of the worst-ranked farm systems, they still produced the likes of Spencer Schwellenbach, Didier Fuentes, AJ Smith-Shawver, Drake Baldwin, and several others. Imagine what could come next now that their farm system is moving up towards the top half of the league.

Prospect rankings courtesy of MLB.com.

10. Owen Murphy (2026/2027)

Owen Murphy has already made his MLB debut, appearing in three games with one start, and for the most part, he looked like a competent option. He has a great chance of being a significant piece of the Braves’ staff in 2027.

9. John Gil (2028)

A lot of people expected John Gil to be the Braves’ breakout prospect of 2026. That didn’t exactly come to fruition, but he still put up a more than decent campaign that’s led him to Double-A Columbus at just 20 years old, where he’s currently hitting .320 with an .825 OPS. 2027 will be a massive year for Gil. With a strong start, there’s an outside chance he makes his MLB debut next year, but 2028 is probably more likely.

8. Briggs McKenzie (2029)

We are just getting our first look at Briggs McKenzie this season, and it might not be long before the 19-year-old is regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect. The Braves have never been hesitant when promoting their most talented arms, but he’s still at least a few years away.

7. Kaiden McCarthy (2030)

McCarthy was the Braves’ second-round selection in this year’s draft. His really big arm is going to be fun to watch coming up the system, but at 18 years old, it’ll be at least three more seasons before we see him in the bigs.

6. Jensen Hirschkorn (2030)

Pretty much copy and paste what I said about McCarthy right here. He’s another bright high school arm that the Braves took in the third round, but we really won’t have an idea of his trajectory until we see him pitch next season.

5. Alex Lodise (2027)

I’m all aboard the Alex Lodise train and believe there’s an outside chance we see him make his MLB debut next season. After a slow start to the season, he’s been arguably the Braves’ best offensive prospect over the last few months. He hit .343 in Rome after being promoted and is now hitting .310 in Double-A Columbus. It’s unclear exactly where he might play at the major-league level, but if he keeps raking, the rest will sort itself out.

4. AJ Gracia (2029)

The Braves’ first-round pick in this year’s draft, Gracia won’t play until next season, but given he’s a college bat, he should be up the soonest of all this year’s draft selections.

3. Tate Southisene (2028)

Southisene was in the running for prospect of the year in the organization before suffering a hand injury after being hit by a pitch. He’s just 19 years old and in his first full season of professional baseball, yet the Braves had no issue quickly promoting him to Double-A after he dominated in Augusta and Rome. Given the uncertainty around the middle infield in Atlanta moving forward, he’s on track to get a look in 2028.

2. Cam Caminiti (2027)

The top-ranked pitching prospect in the system has now made five starts in Double-A and owns a 2.13 ERA. Given his talent and the Braves’ history with their young arms, an MLB debut at some point next season feels probable.

1. Eric Hartman (2028)

Hartman has had a historic 2026 campaign, becoming the first minor-league player since Andruw Jones to record 25+ homers and 50+ steals in a season. He has the tools to become an All-Star caliber player, but he’s still just 20 years old and has struggled a bit since his move to Columbus. If he hits like he did in the first half of this season to start next year, he’ll make his MLB debut in 2027, but I would say 2028 is the safer bet.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

Braves-Phillies Probables

Friday: Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Saturday: Martin Perez vs. Zack Wheeler
Sunday: Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola
Monday: Bryce Elder vs. Jesus Luzardo

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However, it has since been announced that Grant Holmes will replace Bryce Elder and pitch on Monday.

Because Holmes’ outing on Wednesday was cut short due to a rain delay, it should feel like he’s on extra rest come Monday.

But this decision also represents something a bit more. There has been nonstop talk about who the Braves will utilize to start games come the postseason. A lot of people have suggested Bryce Elder, but this should tell you everything you need to know. The Braves don’t seriously think Elder is capable of handling a playoff start. If they did, they wouldn’t have swapped him for Grant Holmes in the biggest series of the season to date.

That’s nothing against Elder. The Braves wouldn’t be in the position they are today without him, but the club has better options, and they clearly believe Grant Holmes is one of them.

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(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)