A look at the chances of Alek Manoah bouncing back with the Braves

The Atlanta Braves made an intriguing late-season addition when they scooped up former All-Star right-hander Alek Manoah off waivers after he was designated for assignment by the Toronto Blue Jays.

At just 24 years old, Manoah looked like one of the brightest young arms in baseball. In 2022, he posted a 2.24 ERA with a 0.992 WHIP, earning All-Star honors and finishing third in the AL Cy Young race. But just three years later, a combination of struggles, injuries, and off-field concerns left him on the bubble of Toronto’s 40-man roster.

It seemed to begin with his conditioning. Manoah entered 2023 noticeably heavier than the year prior. Whether or not that played a role in his decline is debatable, but his results weren’t: a 1–7 start with a 6.36 ERA led the Blue Jays to option him to the minors.

That’s when things got even more peculiar. In his first start with the Florida Complex League, he allowed 11 earned runs. He eventually worked his way back to the majors, but lingering injuries forced Toronto to shut him down for the season. The following year, Manoah underwent Tommy John surgery. Although he returned in 2025, the flashes weren’t enough to convince the Blue Jays to keep him.

That’s where the Braves stepped in. Manoah, still only 27, is a low-risk reclamation project — the type Atlanta has excelled with in recent years. He’s projected to earn just $2–3 million next season if tendered a contract and remains under team control through 2027. If the Braves can get him back on track, the payoff could be substantial.

On the surface, Manoah’s numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this season looked encouraging: a 2.97 ERA across seven starts with 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. But a deeper dive into the metrics and his underlying stuff reveals why Toronto was willing to move on, as Thomas Nestico recently pointed out.

Alek Manoah (DFA’d by TOR) worked his way back from TJS this past season, however he did not look strong in his rehab outings. This DFA comes 3 years after Manoah looked to be the Jays ace of the future with a AL Cy Young finalist finish https://t.co/bXoILzRkn6 pic.twitter.com/AGsh9Vw1SY

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) September 23, 2025

Manoah has never been a power pitcher. Even during his 2022 All-Star campaign, his fastball averaged just 93.6 mph. But now sitting closer to 91 mph, the drop-off is significant, and one few pitchers are able to overcome at the major-league level. His underlying numbers in Buffalo tell the real story: a 5.58 FIP, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 12.5% walk rate across seven starts. He wasn’t missing enough bats, was issuing far too many free passes, and benefited from a healthy dose of luck in a small sample size.

It’s going to be a steep climb for Manoah to make it back onto a major-league mound, but it’s not unprecedented. The Braves have developed a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers, and sometimes a change of scenery is exactly what a player needs to reset after years of injuries and underperformance.

Given the Braves’ limited financial flexibility and glaring need for starting pitching, the potential upside makes Manoah a worthwhile gamble. Still, it’s far more likely he never throws a pitch for the Braves than it is he rediscovers the form that once made him one of baseball’s brightest young arms.

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Photo: Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire

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