Braves Stock Watch: Who’s up, who’s down after a third of the season

The Braves are 53 games into the 2025 campaign, three games under .500 with a sad sack of fans. It’s been brutal to watch this team, so let’s take a look at the stock of the club after about a third of the season.

Rookies: Up

One of the few bright spots in Atlanta is their rookies, Drake Baldwin and A.J. Smith-Shawver, who are the favorites in the Rookie of the Year race.

AJSS got rocked in his last start against Washington, as the Nationals put up seven earned runs in just 3.0 innings. His ERA ballooned to 3.67, which is still 11% above league average. However, he had a 2.33 ERA across his first seven starts. The Braves youngster is certainly going to go through outings like he did in Washington, but it’s been much more good than bad in 2025 for Smith-Shawver.

Baldwin was thrust into a starting role when Sean Murphy cracked his rib, and the kid hasn’t looked back, despite some abysmal luck to begin the season. In only 32 games, Baldwin has already accrued 1.2 bWAR thanks to his .340/.385/.536 slash line. His OPS+ is 56% above league average, and he can hold his own defensively to boot.

Ozzie Albies: Down overall, Trending upward

Ozzie Albies is hitting well below his career averages this season. His 2025 OPS is 25% lower than his career mark, and much of it has to do with his struggles from the right side of the plate, which I talked about at length in a recent article.

Albies was uncharacteristically struggling when he faced left-handed pitchers. The veteran second baseman has a career .903 OPS as a right-handed batter, compared to a .528 OPS in 2025 before Anthopoulos’ words of encouragement. His left-handed OPS is about 100 points lower this season compared to his career averages, but it didn’t compare to nearly 400 points from the right side.

Writing off a guy who has won two Silver Sluggers and been elected to three All-Star games after 48 games was always a bit premature, though. He’s always been a streaky hitter, and advanced analytics have never loved Ozzie Albies, as Chase pointed out earlier in the season.

“Even in his elite seasons, he ranked in the bottom half of baseball in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, and Bat Speed… Additionally, I’m not sure how much weight should be put into the 2023 campaign. He started off slow before suffering two significant stints on the IL. In every season Albies has played in at least 100 games, he’s accrued at least 3.8 WAR, which is a reminder that it is only April.’

Now? Over his last 11 games, Albies is slashing .366/.435/.463, good for an OPS of nearly .900 with four extra-base hits and four RBIs. It’s an 11-game hit streak for Ozzie Albies, and he’s finally quelling concerns.

Sean Murphy: Up overall, Trending downward

After the worst season of his career last year, which was marred by injuries and irregular playing time, Murphy has responded well. The All-Star catcher has hit eight home runs in 32 games, compared to 10 homers in 72 games last year. It’s good for an OPS that is 21% above league average and 10% above his career average.

He’s inarguably been an ‘up’ but has trended downward recently. Over his last 15 games, he only has one home run and two other extra-base hits, which comes out to a .556 OPS. Murphy will always have value because of his defense, but the offense can be dreadful if he’s not slugging.

Michael Harris II: Down

Similar to Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II will always have value because his defense is elite and might even win him a Gold Glove this year, but his offense has taken a step back instead of a step forward.

Harris averaged .285 at the plate across his first three seasons, and with some modest power numbers, it resulted in an OPS that was 16% above league average. He never really took his walks, but when you’re hitting for average like that, you can get away with it.

Now, he’s not making contact, and when he does, it’s not finding green grass. Harris is slashing a putrid .222/.255/.333 with 14 total extra base hits, which comes out to an OPS that is 36% below league average.

He’s far too talented to give up on, and his defense is too elite to take him out of the lineup, but Michael Harris II or the Braves have to do something different.

Matt Olson: Down overall, Trending upward

Much like the rest of the Atlanta Braves, Matt Olson’s defense has been Gold Glove-caliber, while his offense has left something to be desired. I guess it also depends on how you look at it, though. He’s been about 10% better this season than last season, which would suggest his stock is up, but his OPS this season is about 10% below his career average. However, Olson has been much better lately.

Across his last eight games, he’s hit five home runs and three doubles, good for an OPS north of 1.200. In his last 14 games, the Braves’ first baseman has a .950 OPS thanks to 10 extra-base hits.

Austin Riley: Down

There’s a case that nobody has been a bigger disappointment than Austin Riley. From 2021 to 2023, Riley had an argument as the best third baseman in baseball, certainly in the National League. He put together three consecutive seasons of finishing in the top 10 of the MVP voting, with an OPS that was 35% above league average in that span.

Since then, he’s just been slightly above average. His 2024 campaign was cut short by injury, which just so happened to come in the middle of a hot streak, ending a disappointing season.

In 2025, his .272 average is right on par with his career mark, but his slugging percentage is about 100 points lower than his 2021-2023 numbers. That’s where his season turns around, extra-base hits. But, as we say all the time, as the weather heats up, so does Austin Riley.

Starting Rotation: Up

This is also one of those things where, if you compare it to last year, the stock would suggest it’s down, but I’m not looking at it like that. The Braves starting rotation from a year ago was reminiscent of those from the 90s, and while it might not be as dominant this season, it’s still an ‘up’ stock.

After stumbling out of the gate, Chris Sale and A.J. Smith-Shawver have found their footing, with the veteran getting back to Cy Young form and the latter in Rookie of the Year form. Spencer Schwellenbach was shot out of a cannon to begin the season, but has slowed recently. Still, his ERA is 20% above league average. Meanwhile, Grant Holmes has solidified the backend of the rotation with a 3.68 ERA, good for 11% above league average.

Those four combine for a 3.53 ERA, and the unit just welcomed back Spencer Strider, who is coming off a very encouraging outing in which he went 4.2 innings of one-run ball against the Phillies.

Raisel Iglesias: Down

About the only argument for Austin Riley being the biggest disappointment of the Braves season so far is Raisel Iglesias, and it’s a pretty damn good one. After being one of the most dominant closers in baseball the last two years, the veteran has struggled mightily this season. He put together a 2.30 ERA across 125 innings in 2023 and 2024, but that figure has ballooned to 5.75 this season because his HR/9 has more than tripled. Much like the rest of these Braves stars, I’m not ready to give up on Iglesias either.

Daysbel Hernandez: Up

Daysbel Hernandez didn’t look his best last night against the Phillies, but before that, he owned a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings. His heater is deadly, and it looks like the Braves found a high-leverage reliever in Hernandez. Not to rain on the parade, but his walk and strikeout rates are wildly concerning. A 5.7 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 isn’t sustainable.

Health: Up

Let’s save the best for last! The Braves’ health is finally a stock that is up! For more than a year, it feels like a significant piece of Atlanta’s team was on the injured list, and while we are still missing Reynaldo Lopez and Joe Jimenez, the Braves finally have Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the fold.

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Photographer: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire

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