College Football Week 9 Best Bets

It was a profitable week from the five best bets I threw out last week, and my official record remains above .500. I was glad to see two teams I thought were overvalued — Memphis and Colorado State — both lose outright as favorites. As we move into Week 9, I see more value on the board. Here are five bets that have caught my eye. As always, you can find my official plays posted weekly on X.

Official bets (posted on X): 36-33-1

North Carolina +10.5 vs Virginia

Let’s look at Virginia’s last three games. First was the double-overtime home win against Florida State, which put them in the headlines. That win looks much less impressive now that FSU has been exposed as overhyped, and the Noles actually outgained Virginia and had more yards per play. Even then, they had the ball in double OT with a chance to tie before throwing a pick. Virginia escaped, but their postgame win expectancy was only 40%.

Next came a road win at Louisville, one of the luckiest victories by any team this season. Virginia finished with a 13% postgame win expectancy and was outgained by 150 yards. Fourteen of their points came directly from turnovers — a pick-six and a scoop-and-score — while Louisville dominated statistically.

Then, this past week, Virginia barely survived Washington State despite being a 17-point favorite coming off a bye. Wazzu outgained them and led 20-10 with under ten minutes to go, only to lose after a safety gave the Cavaliers a two-point edge late. Virginia’s talented, but they’re being overhyped right now. They’re one or two plays away from being 4-3 instead of 6-1.

As for UNC, public perception couldn’t be lower, and that’s understandable after their dreadful start. But I saw real improvement last Friday night against Cal. It was a miracle the Tar Heels lost that game, and the difference was turnovers. UNC went -3 in that category, fumbling on their first possession (which led to an easy Cal TD) and again at the goal line as they were about to score the game-winner. Brutal. Still, Belichick and his staff can take positives from the effort.

Teams with major roster and coaching turnover often improve dramatically off a bye week. We saw it with Kansas State and UCLA. UNC might be next. They looked much sharper, and I expect a strong response at home in a sleepy noon kickoff against a ranked Virginia team that’s been skating by.

Virginia’s strength is their run game, averaging just over 200 yards per contest, but UNC’s defense has actually been solid against the run, allowing only 119 yards per game. Meanwhile, Virginia’s elite third-down defense (opponents converting just 28%) and +6 turnover margin both scream regression. UNC’s offense has converted a meager 32% on third down — those numbers should even out. Add in the Tar Heels’ slow offensive pace, which shortens games and helps big underdogs cover, and I think UNC keeps this one tight.

Pick: North Carolina +10.5

Wake Forest +4 vs SMU

Staying in the ACC, I’m grabbing another home underdog. Wake Forest has really improved as the season has gone along under Jake Dickert. Even in two conference losses, there were positives. They played NC State evenly before turnovers doomed them, and they were outright robbed by officiating against Georgia Tech despite a 90% postgame win expectancy.

This is also a great spot to fade SMU. The Mustangs are 5-2, but I’m not buying it. Two weeks ago, they beat Stanford 34-10, but that score was misleading. Stanford had first-and-goal down 24-10 late before throwing a pick-six that sealed it. Then last week, SMU beat a banged-up Clemson team missing Cade Klubnik — not exactly a statement win.

Now they’re on the road for a second straight week and playing their fourth straight game overall, while Wake is far more rested, having played only three games in the last six weeks thanks to well-timed byes. That rest should pay off, especially with QB Robby Ashford and RB Demond Claiborne now healthy.

Meanwhile, SMU QB Kevin Jennings tweaked his ankle again last week and may not be 100%, while backup Tyler Van Dyke is questionable. Combine that with a potential lookahead spot — SMU hosts Miami next week — and this feels like a tricky spot for the Mustangs.

Wake has played well at home and continues to outperform preseason expectations. With two weeks to prepare, a healthier roster, and SMU possibly looking ahead, I think the Deacs pull off the upset.

Pick: Wake Forest +4

Miami (OH) Moneyline vs Western Michigan

The RedHawks are -1.5 at home, but I’ll take them on the moneyline to be safe, especially with such a low total (41.5), where a one-point win is entirely possible. Miami (OH) has quietly been one of the hottest teams in the MAC since Week 4, when they narrowly lost to UNLV in a game they dominated before QB Dequan Finn threw a pick-six and got hurt.

Chuck Martin is one of the best coaches in the MAC, and his teams always improve as the season progresses. Since that UNLV loss, Miami has won four straight — all by double digits. Finn is healthy again, the offensive line is gelling, and the defense, led by stud DT Adam Trick, has been fantastic. Add in their consistent special teams edge, and the RedHawks are built to win tight games.

Western Michigan, meanwhile, has faced an extremely soft schedule. After beating FCS Rhode Island, they topped Ball State and UMass — two of the five worst teams in college football. This is a major step up in competition, one they haven’t faced since Michigan State and Illinois early in the year.

My power ratings make this Miami (OH) -5.5, well above the current number. I’ll trust the better coach, better quarterback, and home team trending upward.

Pick: Miami (OH) Moneyline

Other Leans

Boston College @ Louisville Under 56
Might also split this with BC team total under 15. The Eagles offense has been dreadful, and Louisville’s defense is criminally underrated. The Cards’ pass rush should dominate, though there’s always the risk Louisville gets close to the total themselves given BC’s recent defensive collapses (38 to UConn, 41 to Clemson, 48 to Pitt). Call it 41–10 Cards.

Kansas State +3 @ Kansas
K-State is a buy team right now. They’ve looked completely different since their bye, while Kansas has flattened out and hasn’t impressed since blowing out West Virginia. Both teams are coming off byes, but I trust the Wildcats’ recent form more.

Iowa State -2.5 vs BYU
BYU feels fraudulent. They could’ve easily lost to Colorado and probably should’ve dropped that OT game against Arizona. Utah outgained them by 150+ yards last week and averaged 2.1 more yards per play but failed on multiple fourth downs. Iowa State’s off a bye and should come out strong, while BYU may have a hangover after their rivalry win.

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Photo: Ricky Bowden/Icon Sportswire

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