Larsen Griffeth’s College Football Week 1 Gambling Locks

Week 0 was a fun appetizer, but now the real slate begins. After a 2-1 start on my best bets last weekend, we finally have a full slate of college football to dig into!

I’ve already made some necessary changes to my power ratings after seeing teams like NC State and TCU perform well below where I had them entering the season. Last week’s Stanford -3.5 winner needed some late drama, but I felt the result was deserved. The Cardinal controlled Hawaii for most of the first three quarters, built a 23-7 lead, and ultimately showed why I had them rated higher than the market entering the game. A fun, early-season winner. Now we move into Week 1, where the schedule gets much deeper. Here are my favorite bets of the week.

2026 record: 2-1

Colorado +7 @ Georgia Tech

I’m trusting my numbers on this one. My power ratings make Georgia Tech only a 4.5-point favorite here, so I see these teams as much closer than the market does. Getting a full touchdown with Colorado is enough for me to take a shot on the Buffaloes.

There is some urgency here for Colorado. The schedule gets difficult quickly, with trips to Northwestern and Baylor and a home game against Texas Tech all coming before the bye week. That puts added emphasis on Deion Sanders and his staff getting off to a good start and building some momentum before that stretch arrives.

I’m expecting a fairly significant step back from Georgia Tech after losing so many important pieces from last year’s 9-4 team, including both coordinators, OC Buster Faulkner (Florida) and DC Blake Gideon (Texas). Gone is QB Haynes King, who was the engine of that offense, and backup quarterback Aaron Philo transferred to Florida. Receivers Malik Rutherford and Eric Rivers are off to the NFL, and arguably the two best offensive linemen are gone as well, with Harrison Moore transferring to Florida and Keylan Rutledge becoming a first-round NFL draft pick.

That leaves Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza taking over at quarterback. Maybe he turns out to be great, but I’m skeptical–if he were really viewed as a future star, it’s fair to wonder why Curt Cignetti was willing to let him leave Bloomington. Mendoza will also be working with a receiving corps that has plenty of questions after losing so much production. Georgia Tech brought in transfers from Elon, Bowling Green and Cal, and that’s a lot of projection at a position that was already hit hard by departures.

The defense has some pieces I like, but the turnover is significant there too. The defensive line lost its top three players, including one to the NFL and another to Ohio State. The secondary also lost its top four contributors, with three of them heading to the NFL. That’s a lot of new faces to break in at once, and I don’t love the matchup against a Colorado offense that should play fast and force Georgia Tech to defend the entire width of the field.

For Colorado, this is Julian Lewis‘ opportunity to take over the offense. The former four-star recruit steps into the starting role under new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, who comes over from Sacramento State. Colorado lost some receivers, most notably Omarion Miller to Arizona State, but I really like what they added through the portal. DeAndre Moore comes over from Texas, Kam Perry arrives from Miami-Ohio, and Danny Scudero from San Jose State may be my favorite addition. Scudero feels like an ideal fit for this offense and should see plenty of targets out of the slot.

There are losses on the Colorado defense too, but I think some of the replacements could be upgrades. Ezra Christensen from New Mexico State and Santana Hopper, an All-AAC performer at Tulane, give them some interesting pieces along the defensive line. I also think the secondary has improved from a group that struggled badly last year. Boo Carter is a former four-star prospect from Tennessee with plenty of talent, and I really like the addition of Vanderbilt transfer Randon Fontenette at safety.

The travel is obviously a concern with Colorado heading east, but I think this line is being influenced too much by what these teams looked like a year ago. Colorado finished 3-9, while Georgia Tech went 9-4, and I think the market is carrying too much of that perception into this matchup. I expect Georgia Tech to take a step back after losing so many key contributors, while Colorado has upgraded in several important spots and should be much more competitive than it was a year ago. At a key number like +7, I’m willing to grab the points.

Arkansas State +11.5 @ Memphis

It’s pretty wild to already have a legitimate situational spot in Week 1, but I think we have one here fading Memphis. The Tigers are coming off a program-building 27-21 win at UNLV that gave the Charles Huff era an immediate jolt of energy. Memphis is suddenly one of the bigger Group of 6 stories in the country, with plenty of people already talking about a possible run to the College Football Playoff. And that’s exactly why I like Arkansas State in this spot.

Memphis has to come home after a long trip to Las Vegas, enjoy all the attention that came with last week’s win, and then somehow avoid looking ahead to a massive Week 2 trip to Boise State. A win on the blue turf would go a long way toward establishing Memphis as the top G6 playoff contender. That makes this feel like a classic sandwich spot, even this early in the season.

My power ratings make this Memphis -10.5, so I don’t show a massive numerical edge. This bet is more about the combination of matchup and situation. I’m also higher than the market on Arkansas State this season and think the Red Wolves are a legitimate longshot contender in the Sun Belt at 12-1 odds.

Butch Jones will hand the offense to Trey Owens, the former four-star recruit who began his career at Texas. For a first-time starter, he walks into a pretty favorable situation. Arkansas State returns a proven backfield, first-team All-Sun Belt receiver Chauncy Cobb, and an experienced offensive line.

That offensive line is especially important in this matchup. The Red Wolves return four starters up front and are anchored by first-team All-Sun Belt left guard Tristian Smith. Memphis’ defensive line was dominant last weekend and looks like one of the best units in the Group of 6, so Arkansas State having experience and continuity up front gives them a much better chance of staying on schedule offensively and keeping Owens comfortable since he’s not much of a running threat.

The bigger concern is on defense. Arkansas State is breaking in several new faces, particularly in the front seven, and there could be some early chemistry issues. But the secondary–which was a major weakness last season–looks more talented on paper after the portal additions, led by Kennesaw transfer Five Hamilton, who has a chance to be one of the better safeties in the Sun Belt. If even a few of those defensive additions hit (and I think they will), the ceiling for this team is much higher than it was a year ago.

Historically, teams making their season debut in Week 1 against an opponent that already played in Week 0 are 149-109 ATS (58%). Arkansas State has the fresher legs, while also getting the benefit of a full game of Memphis film before taking the field themselves.

This bet is ultimately built around a Memphis letdown. The Tigers are coming off an emotional road win, they’ve received a ton of praise all week, and they have one of the biggest Group of 6 games of the season waiting for them in Boise. Arkansas State has enough talent and experience on offense to keep this competitive, especially if Memphis comes out even a little flat. At +11.5, I will take the points.

Nevada +3 vs Western Kentucky

You’ve got to try to grab the full field goal with Nevada here, but I also think the Wolf Pack have a legitimate chance to win this game outright. I don’t hate a small moneyline sprinkle at all.

I’m lower on Western Kentucky than the market. The Hilltoppers lost five of their top six pass-catchers from last season, and the offensive line was hit even harder, losing eight of its top nine players. That unit was a major question throughout camp, and now it has to deal with what could be the strength of Nevada’s team.

The Wolf Pack defensive line has drawn a lot of praise this offseason, led by Dylan LaBarbera, who is the best player in this game. LaBarbera is up for Mountain West DPOY and has legitimate NFL upside. He could be a problem for a rebuilt WKU front. Nevada has also gotten positive reviews on its rebuilt secondary, with All-Mountain West corner Aiden Walker leading the way after what the staff has called a strong offseason.

Western Kentucky has questions at linebacker too after losing its top five players at the position, including Jaylen Wester and Koron Heyward. That gives Nevada a chance to find some success offensively even while it works through uncertainty at quarterback.

And I like the foundation around whoever wins that QB job, which could be returning sophomore Carter Jones. Nevada returns three starters on the offensive line, including all-conference tackles Jack Foster and Zach Cochnauer, while adding help on the interior through the portal. For an offense built around timing and rhythm, having a competent line is a huge difference from where this unit has been in recent years.

There’s also a regression angle here. Nevada was one of the unluckier teams in the Mountain West last season and finished with a conference-worst -12 turnover margin. Those things tend to move back towards zero over time, and I think there’s a good chance Nevada is better than last year’s record suggests while getting some positive regression with turnovers and close-game luck.

These two teams met last year when Nevada went on the road and led Western Kentucky 13-10 in the third quarter before the game got away from them late. The final score was 31-16, but it was misleading. Nevada actually slightly outgained WKU, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and the final margin was padded by a late pick-six thrown by the Wolf Pack. I think Nevada may be the better version of itself this time around when WKU has to make a long return trip west to Reno, which sits at more than 4,400 feet of elevation.

We also just saw Conference USA foe Jacksonville State make a long road trip and get overwhelmed by Mountain West team North Dakota State. Conference USA is still the weakest Group of 6 league in my view, and I’m not eager to lay points on the road with one of its teams in this kind of spot. At Nevada +3, I’m taking the points. I think this is much closer to a coin-flip game than the market suggests, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Pack win outright late Saturday night.

Other Thoughts

Toledo +10.5 @ Michigan St –– Pat Fitzgerald is an uninspiring hire for Sparty–this team is bad. I like the coaching hire for Toledo, and the Rockets still have some good players. They can win in East Lansing.

West Virginia -20.5 vs Coastal Carolina — Rich Rodriguez has a roster he likes. They won’t contend for the Big 12 title or anything, but they’re much better than last year. Star RB transfer Cam Cook will run all over Coastal here. This could be very ugly.

Tennessee -46.5 vs Furman — Doesn’t this feel like 59-6, Vols? Heupel puts his foot down on these teams and wants to show off five-star QB Faizon Brandon.

Wyoming +3.5 @ Colorado St — One of my favorite offseason portal additions was new Wyoming QB Tyler Hughes from William & Mary. He should spark this offense that was dead last year. Jim Mora is a great hire in the long run for Colorado State, but I think they’re vulnerable in game one.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)