Larsen Griffeth’s Week 10 College Football Gambling Locks

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Week 9 was another successful week for the column, with our Locks going a perfect 3-0 and our Best Bet (Georgia Southern) covering once again to move to 10-0 on the season and keep its undefeated streak alive.

Week 10 is a slate we’ve all had circled on the calendar since the summer. It’s one of the best college football weekends we’ve had in recent years, and I couldn’t be more excited. Unlike some weeks, I’ve got strong leans on several of the marquee matchups, along with plenty of thoughts on some games flying under the radar.

November is here, and the stakes are only getting higher. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and make it another winning Saturday!

Locks: 24-8-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 30-26-1

Column overall: 54-34-2

East Carolina ML vs. USF

East Carolina is my Best Bet this week! I grabbed ECU as a small home dog when this line opened, which was a pretty significant difference from my power ratings that have the Pirates favored by more than a field goal here. The market has since moved pretty heavily toward ECU, but I would still back the Pirates at the current number, but probably with a cheap moneyline.

I’m 2-0 fading USF this season, and I continue to be unimpressed with this Bulls team, particularly on offense. USF has played an incredibly weak schedule, ranking 148th nationally in strength of schedule, and yet this offense has still struggled to consistently move the football. Now the Bulls have to go on the road and face the best defense they’ve seen all season.

Last week’s extremely misleading 30-10 win over UAB is another example of why I’m not buying USF. The Bulls benefited from not one, but two scoop-and-score touchdowns, while UAB also missed a pair of field goals. Overall, the game was more even on a down-to-down basis than the final score would suggest. The Bulls are sitting at 6-2, but they’re just a few plays away from being somewhere around 4-4.

USF opened the season by beating FIU despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards and benefiting from three Panthers turnovers. USF needed a fourth-down Hail Mary to escape Army, trailed Bowling Green late in the fourth quarter, and was outplayed at home in a loss to Temple. They followed that stretch by padding their numbers against Kent State, one of the five worst teams in the country.

Meanwhile, East Carolina has played a considerably tougher schedule, and I think the Pirates are much better than their 4-4 record suggests. In fact, they’re only a handful of plays away from potentially sitting at 6-2.

Look at ECU’s losses since their week one defeat at Alabama. The Pirates lost at home to a healthy App State team, despite putting together a much better box score. Two costly turnovers led to App State points, and ECU also missed a field goal.

Their other two losses both came in overtime on the road against UAB and Memphis. Both were competitive games that ECU had opportunities to win, but turnovers proved costly again. The Pirates were particularly impressive at Memphis, where they led 16-3 at halftime and eventually forced overtime despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.

I’m not suggesting we should go back through every team’s schedule and hand out hypothetical wins and losses, but when you consistently see misleading final scores and costly turnovers, I think it tells you something about the true strength of a team. In my opinion, East Carolina has been undervalued by its record, while South Florida has been overvalued by its.

The big news is USF starting quarterback Michael Van Buren was injured against UAB and may not be available this weekend. Backup Luke Kromenhoek played most of that game, and while his legs certainly make him dangerous, there’s not much in his passing game that worries me.

ECU has an underrated defense that is solid against the pass but particularly strong against the run. If Kromenhoek gets the start, I like ECU’s chances of limiting his rushing ability and forcing him to make plays through the air, especially on a short week of preparation.

I’ll trust this Pirate defense to get some key stops against a South Florida offense that I just don’t think very highly of. The wrong team opened as the favorite here, and the market is finally starting to catch up. It should be a low-scoring, physical game, and I’ll take East Carolina at home with the more experienced head coach and the better defense.

BYU +6.5 @ Utah

My power ratings make Utah just a 4.5-point favorite here, so when this number climbed above six, I had to grab the Cougars. I’ve been on record in this column saying I think Utah is overrated. The Utes have played a relatively soft schedule and have benefited from some pretty fortunate circumstances to remain undefeated. At some point, I think this team is going to get exposed, and the Holy War could be the spot.

The Utes beat Kansas 41-24, but the Jayhawks averaged nearly seven yards per play and turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Utah 10-yard line in the fourth quarter. Utah then gave up 7.2 yards per play to Colorado, and escaped with a 27-24 road win in a game it could have easily lost.

And against the best team they’ve faced, Houston, the Utes were held scoreless in the first half at home against a really bad defense. Utah eventually won 21-13, but benefited from a Houston fumble inside the 10-yard line and another fourth-quarter fumble that handed the Utes an easy touchdown.

I think Utah is a good football team. The Utes do plenty of impressive things, but I think their undefeated record is more impressive than their actual week-to-week performances. At some point, some of that good fortune is going to catch up with them.

BYU, meanwhile, has played the tougher schedule and has an offense capable of moving the ball through the air. But the Cougars prefer a slower, more run-oriented approach, and that’s exactly the kind of style I like when catching points. Both teams rank outside the top 85 nationally in seconds per play, which should lead to a physical game with fewer possessions and make getting nearly a touchdown even more valuable.

The Cougars should also receive a huge boost with the expected return of star running back LJ Martin. BYU has clearly missed him, and his return should give the offense a much-needed spark while opening things up for Bear Bachmeier in the passing game.

One injury that does concern me is the absence of star cornerback Evan Johnson, a future high NFL Draft pick who would certainly make a difference against Utah’s passing offense. Still, I expect this to be a physical, competitive rivalry game, and I’m comfortable backing the underdog that’s been more battle-tested.

Three of the last five Holy War games have been decided by one possession, with another ending in a nine-point BYU victory. These games are usually competitive regardless of what the records say.

Utah is a good team, don’t get me wrong. But ranking the Utes in the top five teams of the College Football Playoff rankings is a little too rich for me, and I thought this point spread was too. I think BYU is very capable of winning this game outright, and anything above 4.5 points gets my attention.

Syracuse +3.5 vs Clemson

We won outright with Syracuse last weekend against SMU, and we’re riding the Steve Angeli train once again. I make this game a pick’em, so I was pretty surprised to see Clemson open as a favorite of more than a field goal. My power ratings made SMU a 3.5-point favorite at Syracuse last weekend, and I think the Mustangs are considerably better than Clemson, so this line doesn’t make much sense to me.

I think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers, who now have to make the long trip to New York for their second straight road game after emptying the tank in a big win at Florida State that got Mike Norvell fired. After recent losses to Miami and Virginia Tech, last week’s victory had to be a huge sigh of relief for Dabo Swinney and company. Clemson finally put together a complete performance in a difficult road environment, and I could certainly see a bit of a letdown here. More importantly, I’m just not convinced this Clemson team is good enough to string together those kinds of performances on back-to-back road trips.

Look at Clemson’s four wins before Florida State. The Tigers beat Georgia Southern 22-7 at home, and barely escaped North Carolina in a game where the Tar Heels had all the momentum before a lengthy rain delay. Then they won on the road against an awful Cal team, and beat FCS Charleston Southern. Not exactly a murderer’s row.

Who could lay points on the road with this Clemson offense? The Tigers rank outside the top 100 nationally in multiple offensive categories and have struggled all season to sustain drives, run the football consistently, and finish possessions with touchdowns. They managed just 22 points against Georgia Southern, scored only 17 offensive points against Cal, and had only one touchdown at home against Virginia Tech.

That’s not exactly encouraging when you’re being asked to lay points on the road against a Syracuse offense that has scored 30 and 31 points in Steve Angeli’s two games back as the starter. Clemson has hit those point totals just once against FBS competition this season, and that came last weekend against FSU.

While Clemson tries to get itself up for another road game, Syracuse should be brimming with confidence after consecutive wins. The Orange have been competitive the entire season, even while dealing with major quarterback injuries, and they’re finally starting to put things together offensively with Angeli back under center. And Syracuse won’t be intimidated by Clemson. The Orange went into Death Valley last season as 17-point underdogs and walked out with a 34-21 victory.

Ultimately, this is a fade of a Clemson team that I don’t believe is good enough to replicate last week’s performance, especially on the road for a second consecutive week. Syracuse continues to be undervalued according to my power ratings, and until the market catches up, I’ll keep riding the Orange. At a field goal or better, I love Cuse.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Boston College +7.5 vs Florida State — I usually look to back teams off of firing their coach, but I placed this bet before Norvell was let go and I’m riding with it. I have no idea where the mindset of this FSU team is, but I can’t imagine they’re gonna be pumped up to play a sleepy noon game at cold, windy Boston College. At 4-4, the Eagles are better than expected, and I’m expecting a bounce-back effort at home after last week’s 47-2 loss to Duke. My ratings only make this FSU -4.5.

South Carolina -5.5 vs Texas A&M — Shane Beamer has the Gamecocks in a groove right now and that should continue this weekend. Marcel Reed has been truly terrible on the road in 2026: 50% completion, 1 TD, 5 INT. And A&M is averaging only 10.7 points per game on the road this season. That’s not great against this South Carolina defense which should bring a lot of pressure on Reed. This is also a major revenge spot after Beamer’s group blew a 30-0 halftime lead in this matchup last season. I project this around Carolina -8, so I’ll lay anything less than a touchdown.

LSU -4.5 vs Alabama — I’m not surprised to see this line movement favor LSU this week. My ratings project LSU -6.5, so this market move is warranted in my opinion. This is a bad matchup for an Alabama offense that has struggled against good defense. Now, in Death Valley, they’ll face a great pass defense with a front that is elite at creating havoc. Those are weaknesses for the Tide, mainly havoc, where the Tide are 113th nationally in havoc allowed. I’d take the Bayou Bengals at anything under -6.

Notre Dame -5.5 vs Miami — Similar story in South Bend where I’m not surprised by this line movement either. I project ND -6.5. Obviously the injury to Malachi Toney factors into that a lot, but before his injury news this line was floating around -5 or -5.5, and I would’ve recommended laying the points with the Irish. I just don’t trust this Miami pass defense that has been soft all season.

South Alabama +9.5 @ Louisiana — I’ve successfully faded Louisiana in recent weeks since they have a pretty misleading resume. I project Louisiana -4.5 here, and anything over a touchdown is worth a bet on the Jaguars, who have a fantastic offense but a porous defense. There will be lots of points in this one, and Louisiana will get their fair share. But I trust this South Alabama offense more, and in a back-and-forth shootout, catching a touchdown or more is so valuable.

Utah State +3 vs Fresno St — Another case of wrong team favored! I really like this spot for Utah State, who catch Fresno in a bit of a letdown after the Bulldogs’ big win over Oregon State. It was a great win for Fresno, but slightly misleading when you consider the Beavers fumbled inside the redzone, which cost them some points, and also fumbled inside their own 20, which led directly to an easy Fresno touchdown. Fresno was also off a bye and had two weeks to prepare for that huge game. Now they’ll go on the road and face one of the most underrated G6 defenses. The Aggies have been rolling on the defensive end recently, which is part of why this total is so low. I’ll take Bronco Mendenhall at home catching points

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