Larsen Griffeth’s Week 11 College Football Gambling Locks

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We were a last-minute BYU touchdown away from another winning week for our Locks, but Bear Bachmeier had other plans. The Locks finished 1-2 last weekend, but our Leans went 5-1 for another winning week overall in the column.

This slate is not as juicy as what we saw last week, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be chaos. There are a few upsets I’m predicting for this week, while some other contenders will make some serious statements. Let’s dive into Week 11.

Locks: 25-10-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 35-27-1

Column overall: 60-37-2

Georgia -13 vs Missouri

I’ll back the Dawgs as my Best Bet this week. My power ratings make Georgia an 18-point favorite in this game, so anything around two touchdowns is too low in my opinion. I’m not afraid to back the Dawgs coming off a statement road win at Ole Miss, even though we’ve already seen Georgia come off a big road victory, only to return home and lose as a big favorite. Kirby Smart won’t let that happen again.

This isn’t an ideal situational spot for Missouri, either. The Tigers left everything on the field in a tough home loss to Texas last weekend, a game that featured plenty of controversy surrounding questionable officiating decisions. Now they have to pick themselves back up and head into one of the tougher road environments in the SEC, against a Georgia team that appears to be hitting its stride.

The matchup isn’t favorable for Missouri, either. Jamal Roberts has some great rushing numbers this season, but the Tigers have struggled to run the football consistently as a team, ranking outside the top 120 nationally in rushing success rate. That’s a major concern against a Georgia defense that ranks inside the top 20 in rush defense.

I expect Georgia to take away Missouri’s running game and make the Tigers more one dimensional. This will put more pressure on Austin Simmons to move the football through the air. The Bulldogs have been particularly dominant on first and second downs, and have forced opponents into difficult third-and-long situations. It could be more of the same here, with Missouri relying on Simmons to bail the offense out on obvious passing downs.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s defense has been pretty good at forcing opposing offenses to move the football methodically. But that shouldn’t be much of a problem for Gunner Stockton and this Georgia offense, which ranks among the nation’s best in overall success rate and rushing efficiency.

Missouri has been effective at making opposing offenses put together long drives, but the Tigers have also struggled to defend explosive plays, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in explosiveness allowed. With Missouri paying plenty of attention to Georgia’s rushing attack, don’t be surprised if Mike Bobo dials up a few deep shots, much like we saw last weekend in Oxford.

Another major concern for Missouri is its inability to finish drives. The Tigers rank around 96th nationally in finishing drives, frequently moving into scoring territory without turning those opportunities into touchdowns. Georgia also has a massive special teams advantage here, with Missouri’s special teams having been a liability recently, including two missed field goals against Texas last weekend. If the Tigers manage to move the football into Georgia territory but stall out, there’s no guarantee they’ll even come away with three points.

Georgia’s defense has done an excellent job creating turnovers this season. Normally, I’d be looking for some regression, but I don’t think this is the spot. Despite throwing only two interceptions, Simmons has recorded nine turnover-worthy plays this season. Against a talented Georgia secondary, and with the Bulldogs likely forcing him into difficult passing situations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of those dangerous throws finally become turnovers.

With the total sitting in the mid-40s, the market clearly isn’t anticipating many points from Missouri, and I agree. I don’t like the matchup for the Tigers, and I certainly don’t like the situation they’re walking into. Kirby Smart has Georgia clicking on all cylinders since that loss to Auburn, and I expect the Dawgs to keep rolling. Look for Georgia’s defense to put the clamps on Missouri’s offense while Stockton and company create enough separation.

I grabbed Georgia at -13 when the line opened, and I’d still be comfortable laying anything around 15 points or less. Georgia will roll again this weekend.

UCLA -10 vs Illinois

I’m going to lay the points on Friday night with the Bruins, who remain undefeated against the spread this season. My power ratings make UCLA a 15-point favorite, and I’m not really sure why Illinois is getting so much love here.

I know Illinois has a respectable 6-3 record, but look at some of their recent wins. They barely escaped Michigan State in overtime. They beat Oregon in Champaign while the Ducks were still operating under their previous offensive coordinator. They beat Maryland by three in a game where the Terps fumbled on first-and-goal. Then last weekend, Illinois beat a reeling Nebraska team in a game where the Huskers had 50 more total yards, missed two field goals, and came up empty on multiple possessions in Illinois territory.

Maybe I’m being a little picky, but that’s not a résumé that convinces me Illinois should be catching fewer than 10 points in the Rose Bowl against a really good football team. And UCLA’s résumé isn’t perfect either, but the Bruins have answered just about every test thrown their way this season. I was particularly impressed with their performance at Minnesota last weekend, where the offense managed to hit several explosive passing plays against one of the better pass defenses in the Big Ten.

I like the matchup here for UCLA, which has one of the most dominant defenses in the country. Illinois has a solid passing offense, but this Bruins secondary is going to be a different beast. UCLA ranks first nationally in defensive passing success rate and is also inside the top five in rushing defense. While Illinois has been effective on early downs, UCLA has been outstanding at forcing opponents into difficult third-and-long situations. I expect the Illini to have a tough time consistently moving the chains.

On the other side of the ball, the Illini rank outside the top 100 nationally in several important defensive categories, including 135th in passing success rate allowed. I was impressed with UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach last weekend, even though he completed only eight passes. He showed an ability to hit explosive plays, and this Illinois secondary should give him opportunities to do that again.

UCLA also has a strong running game behind Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods, which creates another problem for an Illinois defense that has struggled to get stops on first and second downs. The Illini have been poor at generating defensive havoc, meaning Dieffenbach should have plenty of time to operate without consistent pressure.

Illinois does have an extra day of rest after playing last Friday, but the Illini still have to travel across the country for this matchup. Meanwhile, Bob Chesney has done an excellent job getting his team ready every week, and the Bruins haven’t shown many signs of coming out flat this season.

Now ranked inside the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings and fighting for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, UCLA has plenty to play for. I’m trusting my numbers and backing the better team, with the better defense, at home. The Bruins will win by double digits on Friday night.

TCU -7.5 vs Kansas State

It’s hard not to want to fade this Kansas State team right now. The Wildcats are reeling as we head into the middle of November, with a pretty bad injury situation. K State is dealing with several important absences, including defensive tackle Eli Jackson and safety Koy Beasley, but none are more consequential than injuries to its top two quarterbacks, Avery Johnson and Jacob Knuth. Both have been sidelined for an extended stretch, and without them this offense has completely fallen apart.

With Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff taking snaps, the Wildcats managed just 3.8 yards per play in a loss at Arizona State. They were fortunate to even reach overtime against Colorado after the Buffaloes fumbled near the goal line on a possession that could have put them ahead by two scores. Then last weekend, against a bad Oklahoma State defense, Kansas State’s offense managed just 21 points in a blowout loss, with seven of those coming during garbage time in the fourth quarter.

Now the Wildcats have to travel to Fort Worth to face one of the better defenses in the Big 12, a TCU unit that ranks inside the top 10 nationally in defensive success rate. I wouldn’t expect Barnett or Duff to find much success throwing against a secondary that has been particularly effective at taking away explosive passes. TCU should also be able to devote plenty of attention to stopping the run, forcing the Cats into obvious passing situations. Without the ability to generate explosive plays, K State will likely need to put together long, sustained drives to score points, and I just don’t see these inexperienced quarterbacks consistently doing that against this defense.

This is actually a step down in competition for TCU’s defense, which has done an excellent job making some pretty explosive offenses work for their points. BYU managed just 17 points in Fort Worth. West Virginia is used to scoring in the 40s, but was held to 24 despite benefiting from four TCU turnovers. Kansas scored only 16, and Arizona had just 17 points entering the fourth quarter last weekend. This is a defense that has repeatedly shown it can slow down much better offenses than Kansas State’s.

The biggest concern with backing TCU is its own offense, which has been a work in progress for much of the season. The Horned Frogs have struggled mightily to run the football, and ordinarily I’d be hesitant to lay more than a touchdown with an offense that has trouble consistently moving the chains.

But there is one area where I think TCU can exploit this Kansas State defense: explosive passing plays. The Wildcats have been poor at defending the deep ball, and if Jaden Craig can connect on just a few chunk plays, it should create enough scoring opportunities for the Horned Frogs. Especially considering how little I expect Kansas State to produce offensively, TCU shouldn’t need to put up a huge number to cover this spread.

There’s also plenty at stake for Sonny Dykes. He’s on a major hot seat, and his future at TCU depends on reaching a bowl game. Dykes desperately needs a win here, and a home loss to a depleted Kansas State team would likely be the final nail in his coffin. I expect TCU to come out focused after last week’s heartbreaking loss at Arizona, knowing it can’t afford another setback.

My power ratings make this TCU -12.5, so I see a pretty significant difference from the opening market. I grabbed the Horned Frogs at -7.5, and even with the line moving higher, I’d still be comfortable laying 10 or less. This should be a methodical TCU victory, with the Horned Frogs’ defense strangling a Kansas State offense that can’t consistently move the football right now.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Colorado +10 vs Houston — I’m hoping the Buffs haven’t quit just yet. This is a team that’s much better at home and now gets Houston flying into altitude on a short week. My ratings only have Houston -6.5 and I’m betting the Buffs, who can score enough to cover this game. Houston’s defense is awful against the pass–the Cougs grade out as one of the 20 worst pass defenses in the nation–and Colorado can exploit them there. The key will be on the other side where Houston’s efficient offense will really test Colorado’s defense. The Buffs are good against the run, at least. With a long trip on a short week, I’m gonna fade Houston. They will score here and there should be plenty of points, but Colorado can pass on this defense enough to hang around on Friday night.

Marshall +2.5 vs App State — I’ve faded App State a few times recently and been rewarded. My ratings say the wrong team is favored here, and I’ll fade App State again as a short favorite on the road at Marshall — a place App State has never won since they joined the FBS. The Mountaineers are super banged up on the offensive line and in the secondary. They struggled to protect QB Malachi Singleton last weekend and it could be the same story here. Marshall plays much better at home than on the road, and you’ll get a great effort from Tony Gibson’s team as they look to clinch a bowl game. Marshall outright.

Mississippi St +3 vs Auburn — I know Miss State has looked awful recently with their carousel of backup quarterbacks, but it’s come against defenses like Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, and Texas. This Auburn defense is a huge step down, and this matchup actually favors the Bulldogs if they still have any signs of life. Auburn is a bad passing offense and much stronger running; while Miss State is stout defending the run. I see Auburn’s offense struggling here. And on offense MSU wants to run the ball and they’ve been successful at it this season; while Auburn ranks outside the top 100 in defending the rush. Low scoring, but I see Miss State being competitive and winning outright.

West Virginia -2 vs Kansas — It’s not one of my favorite bets for Saturday, but I have to play this spot against Kansas. The Jayhawks are winless away from Lawrence this season and coming off two demoralizing losses. Despite dominating the box score at TCU, KU gave up a last minute touchdown to lose the game. Then last week vs UCF, despite winning the box score once again, the Jayhawks gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game to fall to 3-6. Leipold said the losses have been tough and will be hard to bounce back from. I worry about West Virginia’s defense of course, but I’ve gotta fade Kansas here.

Arizona +2.5 vs Utah — I’m just gonna keep fading Utah, who I think is one of the most fortunate teams in the country. This team is begging to be beaten. The Utes barely covered last weekend in the Holy War, thanks in part to three BYU redzone turnovers, including one at the very end when a BYU touchdown could’ve potentially tied the game. Utah deserves some love for this defense, but their two biggest games–Houston and BYU–have been decided by numerous redzone takeaways. This is a tough spot for the Utes having to go on the road off the super hyped Holy War win. It’s Arizona’s second straight home game and they played last Friday night, so there’s a small rest advantage for the Wildcats. Arizona wins outright at home and finally ends this fraud Utah Utes voodoo.

Texas A&M +3 vs Tennessee — This is a massive sandwich spot for the Vols, who are looking ahead to a big home game vs LSU. Texas A&M didn’t look bad last weekend at South Carolina. They moved the ball well but struggled to finish drives. Marcel Reed hasn’t had a good year but he’s been much better at home. A&M also defends the run very well, so they can at least provide some resistance to the Vols offense, and I don’t respect the Tennessee pass game at all. Should be a low scoring game where points are valuable. If there is any fight left in Texas A&M, you’ll see it here. Take the Aggies at 3 or better.

Utah State at San Diego State, Under 21 1st Half — Utah State has an incredible defense that’s one of the best in the G6, and both teams have offenses that really struggle. Utah State’s last four games have all gone under this number in the first half, and the Aggies have allowed zero first-half points in their last two games. They also haven’t allowed an offensive first-half touchdown since October 9. This Aztecs offense is putrid, and this game should stay way under early on.

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