Larsen Griffeth’s Week 7 College Football Gambling Locks

We move on to Week 7 after another successful week for the column, going 3-1 on my Locks and bringing the season record to 16-6-1. UTSA’s improbable last-second cover against USF kept my weekly Best Bet undefeated on the season, and we’ll look to keep that streak going this weekend.

It was a losing record for the Leans, which finished 2-4, and that’s probably the last time I’ll be betting Texas A&M or Penn State this season. But Week 7 looks like another exciting slate, so let’s dive into this week’s Locks!

Locks: 16-6-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 23-18

Column overall: 39-24-1

TCU team total under 21.5 at Baylor

My Best Bet of the Week is undefeated this season as we enter Week 7, and I’ll put that streak on the line by betting TCU’s team total under 21.5 points. Excuse me while I overwhelm you with stats and trends.

TCU’s offense has looked absolutely lifeless, and I’m shocked by this number because the Frogs haven’t come anywhere close to clearing it against Power 4 competition. TCU scored 10 against North Carolina, 13 against UCF, and 10 at home against BYU. That’s just 11 points per game against P4 opponents. Now they have to go on the road against arguably the best defense in the Big 12, and I have a hard time seeing TCU suddenly doubling its scoring output against better competition.

Harvard transfer QB Jaden Craig has not lived up to expectations in Fort Worth, but the problems go well beyond quarterback. TCU’s offensive line ranks outside the top 110 nationally in Line Yards, which basically tells us the Frogs aren’t getting much push up front. Meanwhile, Baylor grades as one of the best teams in the country in defensive Line Yards.

In TCU’s two Big 12 losses, the Frogs have averaged just 52.5 rushing yards per game. It’s a brutal matchup for a running game that already grades as one of the worst in the country. One of TCU’s biggest weaknesses—creating dependable rushing push—runs directly into one of Baylor’s biggest strengths.

And while TCU has been more efficient through the air, Baylor’s pass defense grades inside the top 30 nationally, so there really isn’t an obvious escape route for the Frogs if/when the running game gets shut down.

The red-zone matchup might be even worse. TCU ranks outside the top 100 nationally in red-zone scoring, while Baylor ranks #5 in red-zone scoring defense. Even if TCU manages to put together a few drives and get inside scoring range, there is no guarantee those possessions turn into touchdowns, or points at all.

Baylor has held all five opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and I struggle to see TCU becoming the first team to exceed that number. Both teams are coming off a bye, and Dave Aranda said Baylor used the extra time to maintain its energy, momentum and focus. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a rivalry game in which Baylor has lost four of the last five meetings. I expect the Bears to be fully engaged and ready to keep the momentum going for what’s been a strong season.

I had Baylor +4.5 at Arizona State as one of my best bets a few weeks ago, and the Bears rolled to a 55-19 win in Tempe. With DJ Lagway getting healthier, Baylor’s offense is becoming a little more dangerous, but I still expect this game to stay relatively low scoring. I also like the full-game under 49.5.

That should help this bet, because I expect the game to remain competitive enough that Baylor’s defense stays engaged for four quarters instead of building a huge lead and allowing any garbage-time points.

If TCU’s offense somehow got multiple touchdowns better over the bye week and shows it against a top-tier defense, then so be it. Sometimes that’s football. But I’m willing to pay to see this lifeless offense prove it can suddenly produce against a better defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see TCU muster only 10 or 13 points.

Houston -3.5 vs Oklahoma State

There’s a chance Oklahoma State is a little overrated in the market. Oregon has trended downward, which has aged their marquee win over the Ducks poorly, and so has their opening loss to Tulsa. Meanwhile, Houston is rolling right now at 5-1. Their only loss came by inches on a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech, and last week they went to Manhattan as a small road underdog and blew out Kansas State (more on them later).

This game should feature two efficient and explosive offenses, which is why the total is sitting just north of 60. Both defenses have holes, but I trust Houston’s offense more. The Cougars have a very sustainable offensive profile. They are strong on first and second down, and as a result rank top five nationally in creating manageable third-down situations. They also don’t rely heavily on explosive chunk plays. This is an offense that can methodically move the chains on a down-to-down basis.

I trust veteran QB Conner Weigman to keep this offense on schedule and keep Oklahoma State’s defense on the field for what could be some long possessions. Re’Shaun Sanford and Makhi Hughes have formed an excellent 1-2 punch at running back, while Trent Walker, Amare Thomas and star TE Patrick Overmyer are a dependable group of targets. There’s a reason this Houston offense ranks top ten nationally in offensive success rate.

It’s hard to take much away from Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense, which has moved the ball well recently too. But in a lot of ways, the Pokes are the opposite of Houston. Eric Morris’ group is much less efficient at putting together methodical drives and instead relies heavily on explosive chunk plays to generate offense. Houston’s defense has been excellent at limiting explosive runs, so the focus will be taking away Drew Mestemaker’s downfield options and forcing Oklahoma State to string together long drives.

Ultimately, Houston is better equipped offensively to stay on schedule and consistently create scoring opportunities. Both teams should get their points, but I trust Houston’s defense to come up with a few more stops and prevent some of the key explosive plays Oklahoma State relies on.

The Cowboys’ recent game against UCF was pretty telling. Oklahoma State was fortunate to escape with a win after only outgaining UCF by about 40 yards. UCF stayed in the game despite several costly mistakes and held the ball for more than 10 minutes longer than Oklahoma State–a recipe Houston will likely try to recreate. The 42-28 final was misleading, with a third-quarter missed UCF field goal and a fourth-quarter scoop-and-score turning a competitive game into a two-score final.

Oklahoma State-focused reporting also came away concerned about cracks in the defense for a second straight week. Houston should be better equipped than UCF to exploit those same issues because of its down-to-down efficiency and third-down ability.

While Mestemaker has looked really good, this will only be his second career road game against a Power 4 opponent. His first came at West Virginia, which appears to be one of the weaker defenses in the country. Oklahoma State started slowly in Morgantown, trailing 14-3 early and 14-13 at halftime before scoring 28 of its 41 points in the second half.

There is at least some evidence that the Pokes can start slowly on the road. If they do that again in what should be a loud, packed night environment in Houston, I think the Cougars are much better equipped to take advantage and use their methodical offense to control possession and keep the ball out of Mestemaker’s hands.

Ultimately, Houston’s defense does not need to shut down Oklahoma State’s offense — and it probably won’t. This game will come down to getting a few stops here and there and limiting enough explosive plays to create separation. I trust Houston’s offense more, I love the spot in a home night game, and my ratings make this Houston -7, so I show clear value. Give me the Cougs at home.

FAU +3 at Army

I’m backing FAU again, as the Owls are no strangers to service academy offenses. FAU has already played Navy this season, so they shouldn’t be thrown off by Army’s option offense, especially coming off a bye with even more time to prepare. Army QB Cale Hellums is a solid player, but this offense doesn’t look quite as dangerous as some of the Black Knights teams we’ve seen in recent years.

Army has consistently scored in the low 20s, with 24 points against USF, 21 against Temple and 20 against Tulane. That’s partly a product of the way the Black Knights play–wanting to run the ball, put together long methodical drives, keep the opposing offense on the sideline and shorten the game. But I’m not convinced that scoring in the low 20s will be enough against an FAU offense capable of putting points on the board quickly. Army’s defense simply hasn’t seen an offense like the one it will face Saturday.

We already saw how this matchup can play out when FAU faced Navy earlier this season. I had FAU +6 as one of my best bets that week, and the Owls won outright after taking complete control early. FAU led 31-7 at halftime and forced Navy into exactly the type of game it didn’t want to play. Once the Midshipmen fell behind, they had to move away from their run-first approach and try to play catch-up. Navy added some late garbage-time points to make the final look closer, but FAU dictated the game from the start.

I could see a similar script at Michie Stadium. FAU QB Caden Veltkamp and his excellent receiving trio of Easton Messer, Dominique Henry and Kelby Valsin should have opportunities against an Army defense that is not that impressive.

Don’t let some of the final scores fool you — this Army defense is worse than it looks. The Black Knights allowed 28 points to a broken USF offense, then surrendered 460 yards and 8.8 yards per play to Temple in a game where Army was outplayed. Even the 17 points Army allowed to Tulane are a little misleading. The Green Wave threw an interception and turned the ball over on downs on separate possessions inside the Army 30-yard line. There were plenty of opportunities for Tulane to put more points on the board. That’s concerning against an FAU offense built to attack defenses through the air, and Army ranks outside the top 100 nationally in pass defense.

A key stat in this matchup is average third-down distance. FAU ranks top 15 nationally, meaning the Owls consistently keep themselves out of third-and-long situations. Army’s defense ranks in the bottom 15 in that same category, allowing opposing offenses to get into manageable third downs far too often.

I do think FAU’s defense is slightly improved from last season, but I’m not expecting the Owls to completely shut Army down. The Black Knights will have success running the ball, putting together long drives and scoring points. But I’m trusting FAU’s offense to bail its defense out. The Owls should be able to move the ball consistently, and if they can get ahead early, it puts tremendous pressure on Army to play catch-up, where the Black Knights don’t want to be.

FAU’s defense has also been excellent at forcing turnovers this season. In a game where Army wants to shorten the game and limit possessions, even one turnover that gives FAU an extra possession is a huge advantage and could completely disrupt the Black Knights’ rhythm.

That’s another reason I keep coming back to the Navy game. FAU doesn’t necessarily have to dominate Army defensively. It just needs to score enough to force the Black Knights away from their preferred style. I’m 2-0 betting on FAU this season, and I’m looking for a third win. The Owls are in the middle of what could become a special season, and I expect them to win outright at Michie Stadium and continue their push toward an AAC Championship Game appearance.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Ohio St @ Indiana, under 51.5 — We’ve seen these teams play before, and it’s been low scoring. Plus, there’s just a little something missing with the Hoosiers so far this year. In both games where they’ve been tested (NW and Nebraska), we’ve seen it be a lower-scoring affair.

Kansas +7 @ Kansas St — This spread has dropped to 4.5, but if it were still around the opening number of 7, it would probably be my best bet of the week. K-State has looked underwhelming against a very easy schedule, and I’ve seen some positives from the Jayhawks in competitive losses. Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall is capable of making some big plays, and K-State can give up points. My ratings make this KSU -5, and I think the Jayhawks are live to win outright here.

UNC +3.5 @ Duke — I only make this game a pick’em, and I wonder if the market just hasn’t caught up to where Duke should be properly rated. UNC’s two losses to Clemson and Notre Dame have been competitive, and this defense is impressive. Duke RB Nate Sheppard looked a little banged up last weekend against Georgia Tech, and I wonder about his health. I trust these defenses, so I’ll take the points.

Notre Dame -10 @ BYU — I can’t get BYU’s matchups with Texas Tech from last year out of my head. The Cougars looked so overwhelmed from the kick in both games, and while I think BYU is a good team, I don’t exactly think they’re better than last year. But I do think this Notre Dame team is much better than last year’s Texas Tech squad. And without RB LJ Martin, I struggle to see how BYU can score enough to really hang in this game. It may be close early on, but the Irish have too much firepower in the second half. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Notre Dame pull away and win by 17-20 points.

Georgia St +12.5 @ James Madison — I’ll fade JMU for a second straight week. The Dukes were fortunate to escape Statesboro with a win last Saturday, and now they’re playing for a seventh consecutive week while Georgia St comes in rested off a bye. Dell McGee is doing some special things this season, and this Panthers offense is rolling, averaging just shy of 40 points per game. I still question JMU’s résumé and don’t think the Dukes have played many good teams (if any at all). Their two best wins are against the corpse of San Diego St and a Georgia Southern team that probably should’ve beaten them last week. Georgia St has enough offense to hang around here, and if I’m right that JMU is slightly overrated, I think the Panthers are live to win outright.

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