Larsen’s College Football Week 0 Best Bets

College football is finally back, and Week 0 gives us the first chance to put months of offseason work to the test. After building out my preseason power ratings, studying rosters, coaching changes, injuries and matchup strengths, I’ve identified a few games with some angles I want to be involved in. Let’s start the season off with a bang!

UNC vs TCU, 1st Half Under 24.5

I like the first-half under here in Dublin with both offenses breaking in new quarterbacks and likely leaning on the run early.

UNC’s defense was actually solid last season — and was a huge reason for their success against the spread towards the end of the year. New offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino will likely try to establish the ground game with two solid rushers, Benjamin Hall and Demon June, before asking Wisconsin transfer QB Billy Edwards to push the ball downfield. I don’t trust Edwards against a TCU defense that should be a pretty solid unit. Quite frankly, I’ve just never been impressed by Edwards during his stops at Maryland and Wisconsin.

TCU is in a similar spot offensively, however. New offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis comes over from UConn, where his offenses played at a slower, more methodical pace. He’ll be breaking in Harvard transfer Jaden Craig — who I think will have a great year — at quarterback, and I expect TCU to lean on the run game and avoid putting too much on Craig early.

That combination — two new quarterbacks, two offenses likely emphasizing the run, and a neutral-site opener in Dublin — sets up well for a slower first half. The first-half angle also lets me avoid the possibility that these coaching staffs make adjustments at halftime and open things up in the second half.

Four of the last five games at Aviva Stadium have also finished with 45 total points or fewer. With all the new pieces on both offenses, two defenses I trust more than the offenses right now, and the added wrinkle of the overseas travel, I like the first 30 minutes to stay low scoring.

NC State +6 @ Virginia

This handicap starts off with the fact that Virginia was one of the luckiest teams in the country last year. The Cavaliers repeatedly benefited from turnover swings, special-teams breaks, and close-game variance en route to four extremely lucky wins where they were outplayed. I believe that close-game luck will turn around on them, and why not start in Week 0?

I see these teams as much closer to even than Vegas does — my ratings project Virginia -2.5. The Cavs are going through a lot of roster turnover, starting with quarterback, where Missouri transfer Beau Pribula takes over. Pribula was pretty up and down last season, with some rocky throws and some questionable decision making. I don’t see him as an upgrade over Chandler Morris.

Stud running back JaMari Taylor is gone, and they lose their best TE in Sage Ennis, who was a big factor in the pass game. Four of their top five receivers are gone and are replaced by three MAC transfers. While the transfers grade well, I’m skeptical of them jumping way up in competition and immediately producing like Trell Harris and Cam Ross did.

They’re also going through change on the defensive side, losing six of their top eight players from a good defensive line last season. I do like some of the adds in the secondary — mainly Brandyn Hillman from Michigan — but there is a lot of lost production from last year and I’m expecting a step back this season.

The Wolfpack return star QB CJ Bailey, who is destined to take a leap going into his junior season. This Wolfpack offense is catching this brand new UVA defense at the right time; I’d be a little more hesitant if they played later in the season when the defense has had time to build chemistry.

Jayden Scott is a solid running back, and Dave Doeren went down the road to add Davion Gause from UNC to create a good 1-2 combo. Harvey Dyson is a potential All-ACC player on the defensive line after transferring from Tulane. The linebacker room loses a lot, but I feel great about the secondary, which returns a lot of experience from last year. Adding cornerback King Mack from Penn State is a fantastic portal add, and he will contribute immediately.

NC State beat Virginia 35-31 last year in a back-and-forth affair, and I would expect something similar this time around. I have Virginia about the same as last year or taking a slight step back, with some negative turnover and close-game regression coming. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren has NC State in a prime position to take a step forward in 2026. Virginia is due for some close games to go against them, and this game could come down to who has the ball last. Catching six points is way too much for the Wolfpack, who have the better coach and quarterback. NC State can win it outright.

Stanford -3.5 vs Hawaii

I was a winner in this Week 0 matchup last year with a Hawaii +3 ticket as the Bows won outright 23-20. But if you take a deeper look, Stanford was the deserved winner in that game and played much better than Hawaii. I think this Hawaii team is worse than last year’s, and I know Stanford isn’t very good, but I do have the Cardinal improved from last year under first-year coach Tavita Pritchard.

Hawaii has been awful when leaving the islands and heading to play on the mainland under Timmy Chang — with a 4-18 record away from home! I like that Hawaii makes the long trip this year. And this is a matchup that favors Stanford well.

This Stanford offense may take some time to progress under new QB Davis Warren, and the Hawaii defense is just what the Cardinal want to see. The Rainbow Warriors lost a good chunk of key contributors in the secondary, but more importantly lose two All-Mountain West players on the defensive line. The two best linebackers are gone as well, and the best returner, Jamih Otis, has been dealing with complications from an ACL tear all offseason. This defense has a lot of new faces, and I expect a tougher, more physical Stanford offensive front to have success moving the ball with Micah Ford, one of the ACC’s more underrated running backs.

Hawaii will of course be showing off their run-and-shoot, up-tempo offense behind sophomore QB Micah Alejado. Alejado won Mountain West Freshman of the Year in 2025 and is perfect for Timmy Chang’s offensive system. However, Alejado missed all spring practice with a lingering ankle injury he dealt with most of last year. That means less time to mesh with his brand new wide receiver room in a system that relies on a lot of chemistry between QB and wide receiver.

There is a lot of unknown in this room after losing key pieces like Jackson Harris, Nick Cenacle, and Brandon White. Star receiver Profile Ashlock does return, but has been sidelined with a knee injury for all of fall camp. Reports are that he will miss multiple weeks, and his absence really lowers the ceiling of this receiver corps.

Stanford’s defensive strength is their back seven, led by All-ACC linebacker Matt Rose, LB Josiah Galvan, and DBs Brandon Nicholson and Jay Green. I like some of the returning pieces on this defense, which should be improved from last year. Overall, it doesn’t bode well for Hawaii, given all the new pieces and injury concerns, to be trying to attack the strength of this Cardinal defense.

New head coach Tavita Pritchard will be motivated to start his tenure off with a home win. And with Hawaii traveling to the mainland, breaking in so many new pieces around Alejado, and facing a Stanford defense whose strength matches up well with what Hawaii wants to do offensively, I’m comfortable laying the short number with the Cardinal in a game I project Stanford -6.5.

Other Thoughts

Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St (-7) — This originally opened NDSU -10 and Jax State has taken some money. No bet from me, but at anything less than -7 I would lean to NDSU at home in their first ever FBS game. This line has moved a little too far.

Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan (-10) — I really like EMU this season. I have over 5.5 wins and 14-1 to win the MAC. This is Sac State’s first FBS game and they’re flying cross country. I don’t have a feel for this one, so I’m sitting it out.

New Mexico St @ Florida St (-31.5) — I see and hear a lot of people betting FSU here. I don’t hate it, but I’m a tiny bit higher on New Mexico State than the market is, so it’s keeping me away from this spread. I’d lean to the over 53.5 because I think the Aggies can score enough points. Feels like 42-17 final score.

Memphis @ UNLV (-4.5) — These are two teams I thought were overrated last year and got a lot of lucky bounces. I’m much lower on UNLV than the market is, and the comments from Mullen about the QB battle were not encouraging. I project UNLV -3, so I’d lean towards Memphis and the points in a back-and-forth game.

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(Photo by Ricky Bowden/Icon Sportswire)