Opponent Preview: The Kentucky Job Gets Hard

It’s Not Easy Being Blue

Many observers, myself included, have mused for years that the Kentucky job may be the best in college football. If you are the head man at Kentucky, the argument goes, you get the resources of an SEC program, with the expectation that you win seven or eight games a year and occasionally a few more. The logic went that basketball is the focus in Lexington, so you need to be competitive until about mid October when much of your fan base literally forgets that you exist. No one expects Kentucky to be Alabama or Georgia. Your bogey is “don’t be Vanderbilt.” How hard could it be?

Harder than one might think. Mark Stoops learned that the hard way in 2024 as his team wilted down the stretch on the way to a 4-8 (1-7 SEC) campaign that has the longest tenured coach in the SEC and the winningest coach in Wildcats history history squarely on the hot seat.

Offense: Competence is something to strive for.

The 2024 Kentucky offense was one for the record books, and not in a good way. Under the direction of Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff Kentucky threw 17 interceptions, the most in the SEC and 126th out of 133 FBS teams. Stoops’ Troops also surrendered 35 sacks, a number which frankly isn’t good for your quarterback’s health or morale.

And so, perhaps not unpredictably, Vandagriff has elected to retire medically from football with our best wishes in whatever comes next for him. In his place the Wildcats will be leaning on 7th (yes, you read that right and I have done the math) year signal caller Zach Calzada. The former Gwinnett County prep standout who started at Texas A&M in 2021, then transferred to Auburn but never actually played in 2022, has been carving up Division II defenses at San Antonio’s University of the Incarnate Word over the past two seasons.

That worked well as a plan for Cam Ward, who went from Incarnate Word to Wazzu to Miami and the top of the NFL Draft. I don’t see Calzada hanging out this December at the Downtown Athletic Club. But he is a veteran player who can distribute the ball in the passing game. If the Wildcat offensive line can keep him upright, I expect him to be at least competent, and perhaps pretty good.

Kentucky was semi-serviceable running the ball in 2024, producing a respectable 145.6 yards per game. But when the Wildcats have been a New Year’s Day bowl contender they’ve tended to run the ball well above that level.

Making that happen will be the task of an offensive line that is totally rebuilt from last season. The ‘Cats will return two starters from last season, center Jager Burton (34 total starts) and guard Jalen Farmer. To that mix they’ll add former UGA commit/Florida Gator/Arkansas Razorback Josh Braun, who has played a lot of SEC football over the past five seasons. In fact Braun grew into a bellwether for the Razorbacks, starting 24 consecutive games in 2023 and 2024 at guard.

The left tackle spot appears to belong to New Mexico State transfer Shiyazh Pete. The 6’8, 325 pound redshirt senior was an All-CUSA performer in 2024, and looks the part of an NFL left tackle with a huge wingspan, good feet and solid lower body. If he flourishes against tougher competition, the Wildcats should be better both in the passing and run game.

At receiver the ‘‘Cats are also essentially a brand new football team. They do return Ja’Mori Maclin, who showed some real spark late last year, catching two touchdown passes versus Louisville in the instate rivalry game. He’ll be joined by Alabama transfer Kendrick Law, who hauled in 33 catches for 343 yards during his stay at the Capstone. Also keep an eye on sophomore Hardley Gilmore. Gilmore went for 153 yards on only 6 catches in 2024 for the Wildcats. The explosive Florida native had entered the transfer portal and committed to Nebraska, but ultimately returned to Lexington where he’ll play a big part in the offense in 2025.

Defense: Some good guys in good spots. But are there enough?

While the Wildcats’ offense failed them in 2024 through the air it was on the ground where the defense disappointed fans. Kentucky finished next to last in the SEC, giving up 161.8 yards per game on the ground. That’s all the more impressive given that through the first half of the season they were holding opponents under 100.0 yards a contest.

Some of that collapse was a step up in competition. But some of it was also just plain lack of execution. Fixing that will be key to the Bluegrass Felines’ bowl prospects, and Stoops’ future employment prospects.

The ‘Cats lose 2024’s leading tackler, former Georgia linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. They do return Davaren Rayner, a promising inside linebacker who played in only four games last season but still accounted for 13 tackles. There’s also veteran Alex Afari, Jr., whose 62 tackles in 2024 were right behind Dumas-Johnson. Behind those players someone will have to step up. One candidate is redshirt sophomore Grant Godfrey. The Gwinnett native and son of Georgia legend Randall Godfrey has the size to anchor the middle and be an asset in the run game, and could be ready for his breakout season.

Up front Kentucky returns defensive tackle Khalil Saunders, who’s been a fixture in the defensive front over the past two seasons. To him they add Washington State transfer David Gusta. The 6’3, 317 pound Gusta is a true A-gap defender with a good first step. He tallied 21 tackles , 3.5 TFL, and even 3 pass deflections last season in Pullman. A similar effort in Lexington should earn him some looks from the NFL. At EDGE keep an eye on USC transfer Sam Greene. The 6’2, 248 pound Greene notched 16 tackles, 3 tackles for loss and a sack in a reserve role for the Trojans last year. Kentucky needs him to step up in a big way to augment a pedestrian pass rush.

On the back end the Wildcats will be led by senior JQ Hardaway. Hardaway has become a fixture at corner and started all 12 games for the Fightin’ Stoopses in 2024, tallying 47 tackles, 4 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. If there’s a legitimate All-SEC candidate on this defense, it’s Hardaway. Michigan transfer DJ Waller was expected to have a similar impact in 2024 but was hampered by injuries. If he can bounce back the Cats could have one of the top five corner tandems in the league.

The real key to this defense will be keeping the above-referenced above average cogs in the machine healthy. When Kentucky flags on defense it is historically in the second half of the year, as injuries pile up and the Cats’ lack of depth is versus the Bamas, Georgias and Texases of the world is exposed. The extent to which that happens this year is out of their control and beyond my powers of prediction.

The Bottom Line

Georgia will get the Wildcats in the first weekend of what sets up as a pivotal October for the Lexingtonians. After coming to Athens for a classic Jefferson Pilot-style nooner they take a week off then have #1 Texas at home then travel to Tennessee for a big rivalry game. By this time we should both know whether the retooled Calzada led offense is indeed an improvement, as well as whether the Bulldog defense is up to the challenge of stopping it. I also expect that Georgia will be hitting its stride in the run game by that time, if that stride is ever going to be hit.

The result? Standard Mark Stoops/Kirby Smart stuff, with the team that runs the ball and stops the run prevailing in a game that sets up as a bit of a trap for the home team. I foresee a win that none of us particularly enjoys, because that’s what happens when Georgia plays Kentucky, as it was in the beginning, is now and ever shall be.

Score prediction: Georgia 34, Kentucky 24.