Braves set to take on the hot-hitting Diamondbacks this weekend

Wednesday capped off a very productive homestand for the Braves. Yes, the reality remains that this is still a last-place team in the NL East. But winning five of six at Truist Park can still be celebrated. After beginning the season 0-7, the Braves have now gone 10-7 entering this weekend’s series in the desert against the Diamondbacks. For the first time in 2025, Atlanta is hot. However, the team they’re about to face starting Friday has found its groove as well.

Despite back-to-back losses on Wednesday and Thursday, Arizona has been one of MLB’s best overall offenses so far in 2025, behind only the Yankees and Cubs in runs. At 5.4 per game, the Diamondbacks are averaging over a run more per game than the Braves (4.3 runs/game), and as a result, the Snakes are winners of six of their last 10. In a tough NL West division so far this season, even at 14-11 entering Friday, Arizona still finds itself in fourth-place. For context, that record would be good enough for second-place in any other division in baseball.

D’Backs outfielder Corbin Carroll is about as hot as can be right now, save for perhaps Aaron Judge. The major’s second-most productive player (per FanGraphs WAR) so far, Carroll comes in slashing .321/.395/.670 with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 25 games in 2025. With roughly 15% of the season played, and 2 WAR already, he’s half way to his WAR total from all of last year (158 games), meaning he’ll likely surpass his Rookie of the Year campaign from 2023, when he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting with 5.4 WAR. I mentioned Arizona is 6-4 in its last 10 games, well during that stretch, Carroll has accumulated most of his total WAR, hitting .319 with four homers and three doubles in 51 PA.

It’s not just Carroll (188 wRC+), though, for the Diamondbacks. Among hitters with at least 20 plate appearances, there are currently four batters in Arizona’s lineup with a wRC+ of 150 or higher (the Braves have two in Marcell Ozuna and Sean Murphy), including Pavin Smith (221 wRC+), who’s arguably just as hot as Carroll right now. Smith hit well in limited action last season, but after a handful of years in the majors now, it looks like he’s figuring it out. As the team’s DH/1B, Smith was sporting a ridiculous .500 OBP for the season until an 0-for-4 performance on Thursday night. Other hot bats in the Diamondbacks lineup include Ketel Marte (165 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (149 wRC+), the latter of which just dropped below that 150 wRC+ threshold after the team’s last game. And though he’s played in half as many games as the other regulars, Tim Tawa (171 wRC+) is another Snakes hitter having success with the bat.

Fortunately, as I wrote last week about how critical these next several series could be, the Diamondbacks are a bit one-sided this season. They haven’t pitched too well in 2025, entering this weekend as nearly a bottom-ten club (19th in MLB) overall with a 4.28 ERA collectively among starters and relievers. Arizona may score runs at a high clip, but Atlanta should be able to hang in there with them, especially in the early portion of games. Right now, the Diamondbacks best starting pitcher has been Brandon Pfaadt, who’s sitting at a 2.73 ERA in five starts. Other than Pfaadt, no other Arizona starter comes close in terms of run-prevention as the other four rotation-mates are sporting ERAs in the high 4s.

Friday’ series opener will feature a starting pitching matchup that a year ago would’ve been quite the duel. It appears both the Braves Chris Sale and Diamondbacks Zac Gallen are in similar situations right now as both are having trouble getting it together so far this season after pitching well in 2024. Sale getting right this time around would be a huge positive for Atlanta, but it’s the finale on Sunday that’s definitely a must-watch, as Spencer Schwellenbach will face off against Pfaadt. The middle game on Saturday will feature Grant Homes versus Merrill Kelly. Holmes is coming off back-to-back strong outings for the Braves, and Kelly, who’s running the lowest K rate of his career, had to leave his last start because of a leg cramp.

The Braves broke out in a big way in front of their home crowd. Hopefully, the team can continue playing inspired baseball this weekend away from Truist Park. Game 1 starts tonight at 9:40PM (ET).

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Photo: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

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