College Football Week 8 Best Bets

I’m sitting just over .500 as we move into Week 8 of the college football season, and there’s another great slate this Saturday. We missed the mark last week on Oregon State — who I was way off on — and our over in Washington/Rutgers lost due to a red zone interception at the very end. But we’re back in the saddle, and like most weeks, there are plenty of teams I’m looking to fade due to what I believe is some market overcorrection. As usual, I’ll try to sell you on some of these bets that I’ve already made.

Official bets (posted on X): 32-30-1

Purdue +4 @ Northwestern

For a team sitting at 2-4, I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen from Purdue, particularly on offense. Their final scores have been misleading, as the box scores show a much more effective Boilermakers attack. Purdue ranks near the bottom of FBS in turnover margin at -10, with 12 turnovers and only two takeaways. I’m banking on some positive regression in a stat that’s rarely sustainable at those levels, especially since this offense has been highly efficient outside of the turnovers.

Last week in Minnesota, Purdue lost by seven despite outgaining the Gophers 456–262 and averaging a yard and a half more per play. The four turnovers buried them, including an interception at the Minnesota 1-yard line, a missed field goal, and a pick-six in a tie game with seven minutes left. They even turned it over on downs at the Minnesota 7-yard line with two minutes to go. It was a brutal collapse for Barry Odom’s squad, who should’ve won comfortably and scored 30-plus points.

It was a similar story the week before against Illinois, when Purdue fumbled in Illini territory while driving to take a 14–3 lead, then muffed a punt that led to more easy points. In a 33–17 home loss to USC, Purdue finished -3 in turnovers, including an interception at the USC 3-yard line, a pick-six at the USC 20, and another pick at the USC 13. They’ve left an unbelievable number of points on the field lately, but the underlying offensive metrics remain strong.

Even at home, I don’t see Northwestern as the better side here. My power ratings make these teams about even, and the eye test agrees. Northwestern’s résumé doesn’t inspire much confidence either. They trailed Oregon 34–0 before garbage-time scores and barely hung on to beat UCLA 17–14 before the Bruins’ midseason turnaround. Last week’s upset of a spiraling Penn State team got James Franklin fired, but that feels like the perfect letdown setup. Outside of wins over Western Illinois and UL Monroe, Northwestern has struggled mightily. I’ll gladly take Purdue and the points, trusting Odom’s defense to contain a sluggish Wildcats offense led by the inconsistent Preston Stone. Purdue wins outright in Evanston.

UAB +21.5 vs Memphis

This is a strange spot for Memphis, who might be overvalued. The Tigers have benefited from a weak schedule and a few lucky breaks on their way to an undefeated start. Beating FCS Chattanooga, Georgia State, and Tulsa doesn’t move the needle — those teams all rank outside my top 120. Memphis was fortunate to beat Arkansas, who outgained them by nearly a yard per play but turned it over three times, including a fumble at the 10-yard line late. They also beat Troy after Troy’s starting quarterback went down on the first drive. Even their 55–26 win over FAU was misleading — it was a five-point game midway through the fourth quarter before a flurry of turnovers skewed the score.

I’m not impressed with that résumé and will fade the Tigers, who could be looking ahead to a massive G5 showdown next week with South Florida. Their bye week likely focused on USF prep after the Bulls destroyed North Texas 63–36.

UAB’s defense is one of the worst in the nation, so I’m not expecting many stops. But the Blazers can score enough to stay within this large number. They run a high-volume passing offense similar to FAU’s, and the Owls were within five points in the fourth quarter against this same Memphis defense. The Tigers’ defensive metrics look great on paper but came against dreadful offenses like Tulsa, Georgia State, and Troy’s backup quarterback.

The Blazers just fired Trent Dilfer, meaning offensive coordinator Alex Mortensen will take over as interim head coach. I’m a believer in the “new coach bump,” especially in the transfer portal era when players are auditioning for other schools. Expect a spirited home effort against a Memphis team that could be caught looking ahead. Memphis is 6-0 ATS, which typically leads to some line inflation from the public. My power ratings make this Memphis -18.5, showing a few points of value.

Should Memphis build a big first-half lead, they might ease off late, opening the door for a backdoor cover. There’s also precedent — under Ryan Silverfield, Memphis nearly lost outright as big favorites at Charlotte last year while looking ahead to SMU. UAB’s offense is capable of hanging around and covering this number comfortably.

Texas State Team Total Over 33.5 @ Marshall

Texas State entered the season with legitimate Sun Belt title hopes, but two straight losses as big favorites have killed their early momentum. I actually think they win outright this weekend, but my focus is on their team total — because this game should feature a ton of points, with the total already climbing past 67.

Offense hasn’t been the problem. Behind QB Brad Jackson, RB Lincoln Pare, and a much-improved offensive line, G.J. Kinne’s Air Raid scheme has found the right balance between ground efficiency and vertical strikes.

Here are the Bobcats’ point totals this year: 52, 43, 35, 30, and 41. The issue has been defense, one of the worst in the conference. Still, this offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a Marshall defense that ranks outside the top 100 in most categories, including points allowed per drive (2.4).

Marshall’s stock rose after beating Old Dominion, but that was misleading. They were outgained, trailed in yards per play, and benefited from five ODU turnovers that produced 31 points. Strip away the gifts, and that game was essentially even.

Tony Gibson’s first year at Marshall has been erratic — wins over FCS Eastern Kentucky and bottom-feeder Middle Tennessee don’t tell us much. Against a motivated Texas State team eager to bounce back, I expect the Bobcats to put up at least five touchdowns against an inflated Thundering Herd defense.

Virginia -9.5 1H vs Washington State

This is my favorite play of the week. It’s a perfect spot to back Virginia and fade Washington State. My ratings make this game UVA -19, and I’ve already bet the full game (-16.5) and the team total over 37.

Virginia comes off a perfectly timed bye, getting healthier across the offensive line and backfield after two emotional wins over Florida State and Louisville. Wazzu, on the other hand, just gave everything it had in a near-upset at Ole Miss. That cross-country trip, followed by another road game on the East Coast, is brutal scheduling. The situational edge couldn’t be more lopsided.

Washington State’s defense is extremely vulnerable — and Virginia’s up-tempo, balanced attack is the exact type to exploit it. Ole Miss’s modest 24-point total last week was more about Lane Kiffin’s team coming out flat before Georgia week. The Rebels still averaged over six yards per play and turned it over twice in the red zone.

Wazzu ranks 126th nationally in both defensive success rate and points allowed per drive (2.77), while Virginia ranks top 25 offensively in those same metrics. The Cavaliers are also top 10 in drives that cross the opponent’s 40-yard line — something Washington State struggles to prevent.

Add it all up, and this is an awful spot for Wazzu. I’ll take Virginia -9.5 in the first half, anticipating a fast start and the possibility of the Hoos easing up later if they build a big lead.

Hawaii +3 @ Colorado State

I think the wrong team is favored in Fort Collins. A few weeks ago, I lost money fading Hawaii’s offense, but they’ve since turned a corner with QB Micah Alejado healthy and their receivers clicking. The Rainbow Warriors have scored 44 points in back-to-back games and moved the ball well against Fresno State in Week 4, losing mainly due to four turnovers and a failed two-point try.

This is primarily a fade of a banged-up Colorado State team that’s being overvalued after crushing a fraudulent Fresno squad last week. Fresno has been living off turnover luck all year, including a win against Oregon State where the Beavers had a 97% post-game win expectancy. The Bulldogs needed another +3 turnover margin and a blocked punt just to squeak past Nevada the week before.

Meanwhile, Colorado State’s own wins are unimpressive: a near-loss to FCS Northern Colorado, a one-point defeat to UTSA despite a +2 turnover margin, and blowout losses to Washington State and San Diego State. Fresno actually outgained CSU by over 100 yards despite turning it over four times.

Hawaii’s offense should thrive against a decimated Rams defense missing multiple starters at every level, including standout DE Kenyon Agurs. Playing their fifth straight week without rest, Colorado State could be gassed against a rested Hawaii team that just had a bye.

The Warriors have already proven they can handle altitude, beating Air Force 44–35 earlier this season. I’ll ride the hot Hawaii offense, the fresher legs, and arguably the best special teams unit in the country led by kicker Matsuzawa. Hawaii wins outright.

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Photo: Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire

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