Larsen Griffeth’s College Football Week 2 Gambling Locks

We’re off to a 4-2 start this college football season after going 2-1 in both Week 0 and Week 1. Last week, we cashed Colorado +7 and Nevada, which absolutely blew out Western Kentucky. It easily could have been a 3-0 week, too, if Arkansas State hadn’t thrown four interceptions in Memphis territory in a game that was much closer than the final score suggested.

They say the biggest improvement a college football team makes comes between Week 1 and Week 2, and now we finally have a meaningful data point on every team to go along with what we thought entering the season.

For what it’s worth, there has already been some wild line movement heading into Week 2. Back in July, I bet Oklahoma +3 at Michigan as a look-ahead line, and after Michigan basically lost to Western Michigan, that number has completely flipped to Oklahoma -6.5. I also grabbed Air Force +6 at home against North Dakota St when that line opened Sunday–and that would probably be my favorite bet of the weekend if the number were still available. Instead, the Falcons have been hammered by the market, with NDSU now sitting around -2.5.

I love both bets at the numbers I got, but with the market having moved so drastically, I can’t include them on this week’s article, so I have fewer favorites than usual. With that in mind, here are the two bets I like most for Week 2.

2026 record: 4-2

FAU +6 vs Navy

I took a 25-1 flier on FAU to win the American before the season because I believe this offense can be electric again in Year 2 under Zach Kittley, and I liked what the Owls did in the transfer portal to address a defense that was dreadful a year ago. FAU retooled the front seven with productive additions such as Ohio edge Jay Crable, SMU defensive tackle Blake Burris and Kansas linebacker Joseph Sipp, while returning established players like Leon Hart and CJ Doggette. I’m not putting much stock into Florida hanging 66 on the Owls last week. That was a superior SEC opponent playing its first game under new coach Jon Sumrall, and the Gators were in a perfect spot to come out trying to make a statement.

This matchup should look very different from Navy’s 42-32 win over FAU last season. Navy lost a ton of offensive production, including three of the program’s best skill players in recent memory: QB Blake Horvath, RB Alex Tecza, and RB/WR Eli Heidenreich. Navy should still have one of the better offensive lines in the G6, but there are questions almost everywhere else.

New QB Braxton Woodson has experience in the system and is an explosive runner, but he has not shown himself to be anywhere near the passer Horvath was. That matters because Horvath’s ability to punish defenses over the top was part of what made Navy’s option attack so difficult to defend. Without him, Tecza and Heidenreich, I expect this offense to be considerably less explosive.

Navy also has important pieces to replace defensively, particularly up front. All-American defensive tackle Landon Robinson was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year last season, and replacing his production is no small task. The pass rush is a legitimate concern, which is exactly where FAU should be capable of taking advantage.

The Owls are built to test this Navy defense. Zach Kittley’s up-tempo, pass-heavy offense has one of the best QBs in the AAC in Caden Veltkamp and two of the best receivers in all of G6 with Easton Messer and Dominique Henry. If Navy cannot consistently pressure Veltkamp, those receivers should have opportunities to make plays against a secondary that had issues throughout much of last season.

There’s already been evidence of that problem in Navy’s opener. In Week 1, FCS Towson hit for several explosive passes against the Navy secondary, and these were not meaningless garbage-time plays. Towson connected on a 48-yard touchdown early in the second quarter and then hit a 30-yard touchdown later in the quarter. If Navy is surrendering multiple explosive passes to an FCS offense while the game is still competitive, then Veltkamp, Messer and Henry should be capable of stressing this secondary considerably more.

FAU also moved the ball against Navy last season, scoring 32 points and finishing with 450 yards despite turning the ball over three times. FAU finished with an abysmal -21 turnover margin on the season, one of the worst marks in the country. There should be some positive turnover regression coming, and if the Owls simply take better care of the football this season, this offense is talented enough to score plenty of points against a Navy defense that I believe has taken a step backward.

There is also a situational advantage for FAU, with Navy having to make the long trip from Maryland to Boca Raton for its first FBS test of the season after opening at home against Towson. September heat and humidity in South Florida can become a factor, particularly for a defense whose depth along the line is already a question. FAU also appears to have an edge on special teams after adding SMU transfer Collin Rogers, the Mustangs’ all-time leading scorer and a Lou Groza Award watch-list kicker. If this game is close–and being at home–it gives FAU all the more of an advantage.

My power ratings make this Navy -2.5, so I love getting nearly a touchdown with FAU at home. I’ll call my shot and say FAU wins outright, but I’ll gladly take the six points with the home dog.

South Alabama +10 @ Tulane

I make Tulane -7 here, so getting South Alabama +10 gives me enough value to take the points, especially in a game with a low total.

Tulane’s offense looked completely out of sorts in Will Hall’s debut against Duke. The Green Wave managed just 258 total yards, 10 first downs and 54 rushing yards, went 3-for-14 on third down, and allowed three sacks in a 17-3 loss. Starting quarterback Zeon Chriss-Gremillion was pulled at halftime for Kadin Semonza, who will now get the start this week, while standout running back Jamauri McClure’s injury adds further questions to an already struggling offense.

More broadly, I think this Tulane team has taken a sizable step backward in both roster talent and coaching. Jon Sumrall is gone, and I’m not convinced Hall — whose last head-coaching stop ended poorly at Southern Miss — can immediately maintain the standard Tulane has set in recent years. The Green Wave were also an unsustainable 5-0 in one-score games last season, the kind of record that typically regresses toward even over time. With a weaker roster and what I view as a downgrade on the sideline, I expect some of that close-game fortune to swing the other way this season.

I’m not particularly high on South Alabama, but there were encouraging signs in its 39-14 win over Southeastern Louisiana, most notably 241 rushing yards. If the Jaguars can establish the run again, they should be able to sustain drives, shorten the game and attack a Tulane defense that just allowed Duke roughly 250 yards on the ground.

I considered the under at around 49.5, but I’d rather take the points with the Jags, who I think can run the ball successfully against a Tulane offense that hasn’t shown it can create much separation. And for what it’s worth, Mobile to New Orleans is a very manageable road trip.

My number is Tulane -7, and I think the market is still giving the Green Wave too much credit for what this program has been in previous years rather than what this current roster looks like. In what I expect to be a lower-scoring game, South Alabama +10 is too many points.

Other Thoughts

Ohio St +1.5 @ Texas — No strong opinion here, but I do trust Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes offense more than the Horns. I’m not really a Sark guy, either. No bet from me, but I’d take whatever points I can get.

USF +4 @ Army — I was slightly concerned with USF’s lackluster offense last weekend, but I think the Bulls can turn it around in Week 2, plus I’m lower on Army, who replace a ton from last year’s defense. In a lower-scoring game, USF can hang around.

Rutgers +4 @ Boston College — The loser will be crowned the worst team in Power 4 (by my ratings). I expect Rutgers’ best effort off the embarrassing UMass loss, and I think the QB change to AJ Surace could be a positive. The Scarlet Knights also have a big rest advantage here. This is a coin flip, so I’ll take the points.

North Texas +4 vs UNLV — I’ve been very vocal that I’m down on UNLV, and I was impressed by North Texas, who actually outgained Indiana last week. I missed the best number here, but I would fade UNLV on a second straight road trip after going to Hawaii.

Boise St -7.5 vs Memphis — I’m slightly worried about a letdown spot for Boise after nearly stealing one in Eugene. But I hate this more for Memphis, who take a second long road trip this early in the season. Boise looked great in the trenches, which is where you have to counter the Tigers’ strength. I trust the Smurf Turf and the Broncos’ supporting cast a little more.

Georgia Tech +13.5 vs Tennessee — This screams overreaction to me. Georgia Tech looked bad in lots of areas, but laying two touchdowns with Tennessee and a freshman QB in his first big road test? I’ll pass. Since becoming head coach, Brent Key is 13-6 ATS as an underdog and 4-0 ATS as a home underdog. I’d lean to grabbing the points.

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(Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire)