Larsen Griffeth’s Week 8 College Football Gambling Locks

It wasn’t the best week for the column in Week 7. Houston missed the cover by a half point, and my Best Bets finished 1-2. However, with TCU finishing under its team total of 21.5, the Best Bet of the Week stayed perfect with an 8-0 record on the season.

As we enter Week 8, there are plenty of overrated and underrated teams in the market, along with some strong situational angles to attack. I have four Best Bets this week and a few leans, so let’s get into it.

Locks: 17-8-1

Other Thoughts/Leans: 25-21

Column overall: 42-29-1

North Texas -1.5 @ Navy

My best bet this week is North Texas. I don’t show a ton of value with my ratings — I project North Texas -3 — but laying less than a field goal is good enough for me here.

I love this matchup for North Texas. I’ve faded Navy’s secondary quite a bit this season, and like I thought in the offseason, this defense just isn’t up to standard. Navy gave up 38 points to both FAU and UTSA, two high-powered offenses that attack through the air, and now the Midshipmen have to deal with another one in North Texas.

Neal Brown has done a great job rebuilding a Mean Green program that was left for dead after Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State and took all of the roster with him. North Texas is averaging 42 points per game, and QB Tayven Jackson has been fantastic through the air, averaging more than 300 passing yards per game, third nationally.

They should see very little resistance from a Navy secondary that grades near the bottom of the country in pass defense and ranks #131 nationally in explosiveness allowed. That is a major problem against an offense built to create explosive plays through the air.

North Texas also grades very well in havoc prevention offensively, which should give Jackson a clean pocket and plenty of time to throw. This passing attack has been efficient enough that the Mean Green rank #30 nationally in 3rd & 4th-down success. Even if Navy manages to force some third-and-long situations, UNT has enough explosiveness to rip off chunk plays and keep drives alive.

North Texas’ defense is fine, but it still leaves a lot to be desired. However, it grades out much better against the run than against the pass, which at least lines up reasonably well with what Navy wants to do offensively.

And with the Mean Green coming off a bye, I trust Neal Brown and DC Matt Powledge to find a way to slow this Navy offense down just enough for the offense to lead the way. Brown specifically said his defense has been working on Navy’s offensive concepts through the summer and fall camp, not just during the bye. In a conference that features option-heavy offenses from Navy, Army and now Rice, there is more emphasis than ever on AAC teams knowing how to defend this style.

While North Texas is rested, Navy is playing its fifth straight game and also comes in a little banged up at running back and tight end, thinning out both positions.

This should be a high-scoring game, and bookmakers agree with a total of 62.5. In that type of game, I trust North Texas’ offense much more than Navy’s. UNT is the more explosive team and can score quickly against a Navy defense that has been one of the worst in the country at preventing explosive plays. Navy is built to run the ball, sustain long drives and control possession. But if the Midshipmen get dragged into a shootout and are forced to play catch-up, I don’t trust them to score quickly enough to keep pace.

North Texas has been impressive this season with a brand new roster. The Mean Green were competitive in a Week 1 loss at Indiana, with their only other defeat coming on the road at Texas State. They are right in the middle of the AAC race, and a win here would go a long way toward getting them into the conference championship picture. This Navy team has taken too much of a step back this year, and I’m betting North Texas to outscore them on Saturday and win by more than a field goal.

Duke +2.5 @ Virginia

I’ve faded Duke two weeks in a row and won both times, but now I’m backing Manny Diaz’s Blue Devils as they head to Charlottesville to face a Virginia team that I don’t like the look of right now.

This will be Virginia’s seventh straight week playing, and I’d imagine there is some exhaustion setting in as we reach Week 8. UVA has made two long road trips in the last three weeks, traveling to Tallahassee and then to Dallas to face SMU. Now, after flying back from Dallas, UVA has to regroup for a short-week Friday night game.

When some people look at Virginia, they may still be thinking about that beatdown of NC State in Week Zero, but Tony Elliott’s team has looked completely different recently. As road favorites, Virginia managed only seven points in a blowout loss at Florida State. Then, as two-touchdown home favorites, the Cavaliers were lucky to escape Syracuse, who played most of the second half with its fourth-string quarterback because of a slew of injuries. Virginia still won by only three. And last week at SMU, this offense managed just 13 points. Even Elliott acknowledged that Virginia has struggled to find an offensive rhythm in recent weeks.

I’m not trusting this offense right now, especially on a short week against a good Duke defense. Virginia wants to run first, but Duke will make that difficult. The Blue Devils rank second in the ACC in total defense and allow only 92.5 rushing yards per game.

Virginia has looked much more vulnerable when it has been forced away from the run and has to rely on Beau Pribula to consistently make plays through the air. In a loss to West Virginia, the Cavaliers couldn’t keep pace once the game became more pass-heavy, and the same thing happened in the 38-7 loss at Florida State when Virginia fell behind and had to move away from its preferred run-first approach.

Duke is good enough defensively to hold Virginia’s running game in check, and if the Blue Devils can force Pribula into obvious passing situations, I don’t trust him to consistently beat this defense from the pocket.

There’s also a tempo element that favors Duke. Against SMU, Virginia had only around eight offensive possessions. Duke plays slowly, ranking #112 nationally in seconds per play, so another low-possession game could magnify every failed Virginia drive and make it even harder for the Cavaliers to create separation.

On the other side, Duke’s offense can take advantage of Virginia’s defensive weaknesses: stopping the run and preventing explosive plays. Duke has been very successful running the ball behind Nate Sheppard, who has played his way into the top tier of ACC running backs. I expect him to have another strong game against a Virginia defense that ranks near the bottom of the country in both rushing defense and rushing success allowed.

And if Virginia sells out to slow Sheppard, Duke QB Walker Eget is more than comfortable attacking through the air. Eget came from San Jose State, where he played in the Spartans’ “spread-and-shred” offense that was built around pushing the ball downfield. Virginia ranks bottom 20 in the country in preventing explosive plays, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Duke rip off some chunk gains, whether it comes from Eget’s arm or Sheppard’s legs.

Injuries are a concern for a Virginia secondary that is banged up. Starting corner Omillio Agard is out for the season, while key players Corey Costner, Brandyn Hillman and Ethan Minter are also out for this game.

The Blue Devils should be able to ride Sheppard and Eget to offensive success, while Virginia’s offense has looked sluggish for several weeks. Manny Diaz is an excellent defensive mind, and he already beat Tony Elliott last year in the ACC Championship Game. Add in the short week, Virginia’s recent travel, and a banged-up defense that may be running on fumes, and I think this is a very good spot for Duke.

My ratings project this game as a pick’em. I wish I could get +3, but I like the matchup enough to take the points with Duke, who will win outright in Charlottesville.

Minnesota +7 vs Iowa

I’ll take the full touchdown with Minnesota at home in the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry. I’ve been fading Iowa for most of the season, to varying degrees of success, and I continue to be lower on them than the market. My ratings make this Iowa -3, so I think the market is giving the Hawkeyes too much credit.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot. Both teams are off bye weeks, with Iowa ranked, coming off a convincing win over Washington and getting some playoff buzz. Meanwhile, Minnesota was embarrassed by Purdue before the bye and now returns home rested, and with revenge after losing this game 41-3 last season. Iowa is getting a lot of praise for its wins over Michigan and Washington, but let’s not forget Minnesota has also beaten both teams, and was much more convincing beating the Wolverines than Iowa was.

It’s a very low total sitting around 40.5, so laying a full touchdown on the road with Iowa’s offense is asking a lot. Minnesota probably won’t have much success trying to establish the run. The Gophers rank near the bottom of the country in rush success, while Iowa’s run defense is elite. But Minnesota’s offense is much more productive through the air than people may realize, averaging 236.5 passing yards per game, and that happens to be the weaker part of Iowa’s defense. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom nationally in preventing explosive passes, and even their own coverage has questioned whether the secondary can hold up when teams are forced to throw, like we saw in the Ohio State game.

On the other side, Iowa’s offense may have trouble exploiting Minnesota’s defensive weaknesses. The Gophers are excellent at creating havoc and have been good on third and fourth downs. The Hawkeyes rank #102 in rush success, so if Minnesota can eliminate the explosive runs and force Iowa to sustain long drives, that’s a major win for the Gophers defense.

That is exactly the type of game Minnesota is more comfortable playing. The Gophers have struggled against faster, more explosive offenses like Mississippi State and Purdue, but they have looked much better against slower, physical teams. We already saw them thrive in a similar spot earlier this season when they were a touchdown home underdog against Michigan and won outright.

I worry about Minnesota’s offensive line, which has been really poor and is a major reason the run game has struggled. If Iowa gets ahead early and makes the Gophers one-dimensional through the air–although that’s a Minnesota strength–the Hawkeyes can focus on the pass and turn up the pressure on Drake Lindsey to get in the backfield.

However, all the pressure is on Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are the ranked team, the road favorite and the team everyone is buying. Minnesota is the rested home underdog with revenge on its mind. I think these teams are much closer than the spread suggests, and I completely disagree with Vegas basically saying Iowa is nine or ten points better on a neutral field. No way. In a low-scoring rivalry game, I want the full touchdown with the Gophers, who will test overrated Iowa.

New Mexico -3.5 vs North Dakota State

I’ll lay the points with the Lobos in one of the biggest G6 games of the season. My ratings make this New Mexico -6, and I’m going to trust my number.

NDSU has roared into the FBS with plenty of early success, but it has come against a weak schedule. Wins over Jacksonville St, Sacramento St, Wyoming and Nevada are not the same caliber of opponent the Bison will see this weekend. When NDSU stepped up in class on the road at UNLV, the offense managed only seven points in a loss. Now the Bison make another long road trip, this time to roughly 5,100 feet of elevation in Albuquerque and what should be a strong home atmosphere.

New Mexico won 21-10 last week at Hawaii, a tough spot to play. Meanwhile, NDSU’s 31-17 win over Nevada was much more misleading. The Bison fell behind 11-0 before returning a missed field goal 100 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the first half, then added a 74-yard defensive PAT return. Those are two massive fluke plays that made the final look much more comfortable than the actual game, which was pretty evenly played.

This matchup features two of the best defenses in the country, but I give the edge to New Mexico. The Lobos rank #2 nationally in defensive success rate, and I think NDSU’s offense will have a difficult time consistently sustaining drives. NDSU’s defense is legitimate too, but over the course of the game I trust New Mexico’s offense more to create scoring opportunities.

Turnovers could also be huge. New Mexico has been elite at forcing turnovers and is the only team in the country with multiple takeaways in every game this season. NDSU has lived comfortably with a positive turnover margin, but now has to face the best takeaway defense in the country on the road in a hostile environment. In what should be a low-scoring game where every possession matters, one or two short fields could be the difference.

There are some concerns with this bet. The total is only around 41.5, so I don’t love laying more than a field goal. New Mexico is also without Jaxton Eck, its best defensive player and probably the best in the Mountain West. The Lobos looked fine without him last week at Hawaii, but NDSU presents a much tougher test.

One thing I do like is coach Jason Eck’s familiarity with the Bison. During his time at South Dakota State, Eck went 4-4 in eight Dakota Marker games against NDSU after the Jackrabbits had previously lost eight straight in the rivalry.

I’m a big fan of Jason Eck, who will be on to a Power 4 job very soon, and I still think NDSU is slightly overrated because of the schedule it has faced. This should be a grinder, but I trust New Mexico’s defense and home-field advantage. And with my power ratings showing value, I’m betting New Mexico at anything -4 or better.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Virginia Tech @ Clemson, under 49.5 — Clemson’s offense has struggled against better competition in 2026. Now they’ll get James Franklin and Brent Pry’s defense, which has been elite at forcing havoc and getting in the backfield. The Tigers have had two weeks to prepare though, after a Bye week and then beating FCS Charleston Southern. This defense should come out firing and I expect a cagey game in Death Valley.

Rutgers +17 @ Northwestern — The Wildcats have some real buzz to them right now, but this is a bad spot. After a bye week in Week 2, the Cats are playing 11 consecutive weeks. And now they’re off a highly emotional win over old coach Pat Fitzgerald, while also looking ahead to huge matchups against Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State. This is as close to a bye week as they’ll get the rest of the season. Rutgers has an offense that can score points, and that’s enough for me when betting a big underdog. Throw in the fact that NW is dealing with some key injuries on both sides of the ball — including three starters in the secondary and their best TE — and I think Rutgers can keep this close.

Southern Miss +11 vs Louisiana — Here’s some trash. I only project this around -5 for the Cajuns. Southern Miss has been competitive recently, while Louisiana is off a really misleading big win against Troy where they benefited from tons of turnover variance. The Golden Eagles can move it enough through the air to stick around here.

UCF +9.5 vs BYU — I had to grab this look ahead line for a spot I’ve had circled since the summer. BYU comes off their huge emotional win vs Notre Dame, and now has to fly to sunny, warm Orlando for a game against UCF, who’s off a bye week. The stats don’t say a lot of good things for UCF, but I imagine the slow tempo and physical defenses will rule this low-scoring game. I’m grabbing the points at anything above a touchdown.

Georgia Tech -4 vs Boston College — BC is riding high after a nice win against Pitt last weekend. But that game was at home, Pitt was on their backup QB, and BC had a bye week to prepare. Now the Eagles head to Atlanta to face what should be a much healthier Georgia Tech team looking to rebound after a competitive loss at Virginia Tech. Tech almost lost to BC last year and survived on a last-second field goal. That should have Brent Key’s attention, and for a team that only has one win so far against Power 4 competition, I think the Jackets will be locked in.

Central Michigan +2.5 vs Miami-Ohio — I have CMU favored here and will gladly fade Miami-OH on the road, who just haven’t looked very competent recently amidst some QB injuries. The Redhawks lost to Bowling Green, were lucky to win against UMass, and got a bunch of favorable bounces last week to beat Akron. This is the first time Chuck Martin is facing Matt Drinkall at CMU, who runs an option-style offense that can be hard to prepare for.

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