Three stats that suggest the Falcons will beat the Packers

The Falcons enter Week 3 as the laughingstock of the NFL. They’ve mustered just 16 points on offense and haven’t navigated one drive inside the red zone, just the fourth team in NFL history to accomplish that feat, joining the 2008 Rams, 1997 Lions, and 1992 Patriots. Now they head to Green Bay for a primetime showdown on Thursday Night Football, and nobody is giving them much of a chance to pull off a victory on a short week.

However, the first two weeks came with third-string quarterback Cooper Rush under center. Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his season debut against the Packers, which should jolt some life into the entire team. There are also several stats that suggest this could be a much more interesting matchup than people might expect.

Atlanta Falcons — The Kings Of Primetime

I discussed it earlier in the week, but even though the Falcons have missed out on postseason play in each of the last two seasons, one area where they have thrived is in these primetime matchups. They went 4-1 on the national stage a year ago and are 7-3 over the last two seasons.

Of course, whether that stat means anything heading into this matchup could be picked apart, but this one is much more interesting. Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 on Thursday Night Football, with four of those victories coming after he lost the previous game.

That’s not just a random number. Kevin Stefanski wasn’t coaching a powerhouse out in Cleveland. He was an underdog in most every matchup, so the fact that his teams are undefeated when dealing with short weeks is a strong indication that he’s figured out how to approach things when there’s not as much time to game plan. We’ll see if the trends continue tomorrow.

A Mismatch In The Trenches

The Falcons’ embarrassing performances have allowed a lot of other teams that have underperformed through the first two weeks to fly under the radar. The Packers are one of those teams. They were embarrassed by the Vikings in Week 1, who were playing with backup quarterback Carson Wentz, and then narrowly escaped with a three-point victory in overtime against the Jets.

Green Bay has been a surprisingly terrible team to start the season, and a lot of the problems stem from the offensive line. They rank dead last in rush yards per game and are also last in pass block win rate (18%). That’s a massive matchup advantage for the Falcons, who have been very good across the defensive front even without James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker.

A primary reason for that has been a much more stout interior presence. The additions of guys like Maason Smith and Gervon Dexter Sr. have proven to be massive upgrades, as the group leads the NFL in pressures with 23. This matchup could prove to be the difference in the game, even if all the focus is on the quarterback position.

Tired Teams On Short Weeks

This isn’t gambling advice, but take it how you will. Teams that exhausted a lot of energy the week prior typically do not perform well on short weeks. Last week, the Packers went into overtime on the road and squeaked out a win over the Jets. Over the last 20 matchups on Thursday Night Football where a team went into overtime the previous week, those teams are 2-18 ATS.

And you don’t have to look far to find a previous example. One occurred just last week with the Lions, who beat the Saints in overtime in Week 1 and followed it up with a blowout loss to the Bills. The Packers are listed as 4.5-point favorites in this game, so they could still win and not cover, but this trend suggests it will at least be a very close game.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)