Braves: Which players given qualifying offers are actually worth it?

As free agency begins, eight players received one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offers:

• Randy Arozarena
• Jake Bauers
• David Bednar
• Ryan Jeffers
• Adrián Morejón
• Trevor Rogers
• Seiya Suzuki
• Brandon Lowe

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Teams can extend a qualifying offer to a free agent as long as he spent the entire last season with the club and hasn’t previously received one — which is why you don’t see Tarik Skubal on this list. The player can accept or decline, and in most cases, he declines and enters free agency.

If a player who received a qualifying offer signs with another team, his previous club is entitled to draft compensation — and that’s what this article is all about. A lot of clubs are wary of signing free agents who turned down qualifying offers for that very reason, the Braves included. Atlanta would have to forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft picks, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money, to sign any of these players.

That’s a stiff penalty, so which players on this list would actually be worth it? Of the eight, six play positions of need for the Braves.

Jake Bauers

Bauers is the most shocking name of the bunch, cashing in on his breakout campaign and tremendous postseason run. But I don’t see many teams surrendering draft compensation on top of a lucrative contract for a player with just one year of production who will be 31 next season — the Braves least of all.

Not Worth It

David Bednar and Adrián Morejón

Even if they don’t re-sign Raisel Iglesias, the Braves already have a really expensive bullpen. They likely aren’t shopping at the top of the reliever market, especially for arms that come with added draft compensation.

Not Worth It

Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki

Arozarena and Suzuki are a different story — the Braves should have real interest in both. They’re All-Star-caliber outfielders who could fill the massive void that currently exists in left field.

The problem is the combination of their age, projected contract, and the draft compensation, which together make it hard to imagine Atlanta seriously considering either. Both will be 32 next season and are likely in line for multi-year deals in the $100 million range. That alone is a massive commitment for a player who’ll be well into his mid-30s by the time the deal ends. Add in the qualifying-offer penalties, and there’s just not much value to be had.

Not Worth It

Trevor Rogers

Surprisingly, Trevor Rogers is the only starting pitcher on this list, and he’s the only candidate I deem worth the draft compensation. He’s arguably the best rotation arm available outside of Tarik Skubal and has upside few free agent starting pitchers in this class can match.

Contract projections around the industry have Rogers landing a four- or five-year deal worth around $100 million. That’s far from a ridiculous price for someone who has been a legitimate frontline starter at his best. If the Braves believe Rogers has ace potential, he’s a player I could see them going after despite the qualifying offer.

Worth It