Larsen Griffeth’s College Football Week 3 Gambling Locks

Week 3 is here, and my best bets column keeps rolling on. I only had two official plays last week, but they both got home as winners. FAU was one of my favorite bets of the season so far. I liked the Owls not only to cover against Navy, but to win the game outright, and that handicap played out almost perfectly. My other best bet was South Alabama +10 on the road, and they easily could’ve won outright. That brings the season record to 6-2, so if you’ve been tailing this column, you’re making money.

After two full weeks of meaningful data points, we’re starting to learn which preseason assumptions were right, which teams were badly mispriced, and where the market still hasn’t fully caught up. Here’s what jumps out to me heading into Week 3, including a couple of point totals.

2026 record: 6-2

South Alabama -6 vs. Ohio

I’m rolling with South Alabama again this week. The Jaguars were one of my best bets last Saturday, and I came away impressed. South Alabama played well enough to beat Tulane outright, carrying the game deep into the fourth quarter before Tulane scored in the final 90 seconds to take the lead. More importantly, QB Bishop Davenport has looked steady through two games, taking care of the football and giving this offense a much higher floor than we saw in 2025.

Ohio, meanwhile, is coming off one of the more fortunate wins of this early season. The Bobcats survived Jacksonville State 29-27 in four overtimes, but the box score was dominated by the Gamecocks, and nearly every high-variance play seemed to break Ohio’s way. The Bobcats won the turnover battle, benefited from a failed Jax State fourth-down conversion, returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and then watched Garrison Rippa (one of the best G6 kickers) miss a 38-yard field goal that would have won the game. Ohio deserves credit for surviving, but there was heavy luck involved along the way.

Something to note is that Ohio just played four overtimes and now immediately has to travel to hot and steamy Mobile, and the Bobcats came out of last week pretty banged up. Starting QB Nick Poulos left in the second quarter after taking the hit that resulted in a targeting call, backup Matt Vezza also exited, and true freshman Levi Davis had to finish the game. Starting RB Duncan Brune was injured as well, while the secondary is dealing with issues involving key players DJ Walker, KJ Sejour and Eli Thompson. There’s no definitive update yet on several of those players, but that is a lot of uncertainty at important positions for a team making a road trip after an exhausting game.

Ohio has also been a very different team away from Athens. Peden Stadium has become one of the strongest home-field environments in the G6, with Ohio having an incredible 24-1 record at home since the start of 2022. Strange games have had a way of breaking in the Bobcats’ direction there, and last week certainly fit the pattern. But on the road over that same span, Ohio is only 12-13 straight up, including a 3-11 record as a road underdog. Simply put, there’s been a night-and-day difference between the Ohio we see at home versus on the road.

I like what I’ve seen from the Jags through two weeks, but this bet is just as much about fading an Ohio team that may be running on fumes. The Bobcats were outplayed last week, survived because of a string of favorable variance, and may now be missing key pieces on both sides of the ball. South Alabama has been competitive, and Davenport looks good alongside weapons RB Keenan Phillips and WR Brendan Jenkins. After watching Ohio squeak out that fortunate home win, I’m jumping at the chance to fade them, especially on the road.

West Virginia vs. Virginia — under 54.5 & 1H under 28

I’m staying away from the side in this one and instead backing a lower-scoring game between two offenses that are built to run the football. West Virginia has been one of the most run-heavy teams in the country under Rich Rodriguez, with roughly a 78% run rate through the early part of the season. Cam Cook, who was one of the best backs in the country last year at Jacksonville State, is the bellcow, while Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins gives the Mountaineers another major rushing threat at quarterback. Virginia wants to play a similar style. Tony Elliott has a deep stable of backs he is comfortable rotating, and QB Beau Pribula is a major part of the running game himself. In the Week 0 win over NC State, Pribula attempted only 11 passes but ran for 110 yards.

I also like what Virginia’s defense has shown so far. I was skeptical coming into the year after the Cavaliers lost a lot of talent from last season, but Elliott appears to have hit on several portal additions, particularly in the secondary. Michigan transfer Brandyn Hillman has fit in nicely alongside stars Ethan Minter and Corey Costner, and the defense should get even better with LB Kam Robinson returning from injury. NC State’s offense was completely overwhelmed in the opener, and through two games Virginia has allowed just one offensive play of 25-plus yards. John Rudzinski’s defense is making opponents earn everything slowly instead of giving up cheap explosives, and that is exactly what I want to see when betting an under.

The tempo also works in our favor. West Virginia does play fairly fast, which is not ideal for an under, but most of that pace comes through the running game and keeps the clock moving. Virginia is on the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging roughly 33 seconds per play, which is among the slowest offenses in the country. They are in no hurry to snap the football, and when Virginia is playing from ahead, Elliott is perfectly comfortable leaning on the run and shortening the game. Since the start of the 2024 season, Virginia games are 11-5-1 to the under when the Cavaliers are favored. With UVA laying around ten points here, the expected game script fits that trend well: establish the run, build a lead and make West Virginia drive the field against a defense that has done an excellent job limiting explosive plays.

I also like the first-half under for many of the same reasons. Both teams are making a small step up in competition. Virginia is coming off a bye week and then a blowout of FCS Norfolk State, meaning this is its first legitimate test since seeing NC State. West Virginia has opened with Coastal Carolina and FCS Tennessee-Martin. I expect some feeling-out early as both teams try to establish the run, and that could make the first half move very slowly. I see some long possessions, limited explosives and enough defensive resistance to keep this from turning into a track meet.

Ball State @ Liberty — under 52

Don’t expect a ton of points here, mainly because of the offensive tempo. Ball State is around 91st nationally in seconds per play, while Liberty is down around 130th, putting the Flames among the ten slowest offenses in the country. Ball State is extremely run-heavy and almost service-academy-like in its approach, while Liberty also wants to establish the ground game, so the basic setup points toward long possessions, a running clock and fewer total drives. The market has already moved in that direction, with the total opening around 53.5 before getting bet down toward 49.5. I would still play the under at any number above 49, and I was happy to grab it at 52.

Liberty’s offense simply has not looked good through two games. The Flames scored only 13 points against James Madison and struggled to sustain drives, then barely escaped FCS Gardner-Webb 24-23 as a massive favorite. That performance included 11 penalties, two turnovers and a 2-for-12 mark on third down. Liberty scored touchdowns on plays of 65 and 54 yards, while another touchdown came after a turnover gave the offense the ball at the Gardner-Webb 20. Outside of those explosive plays and short fields, the Flames had a difficult time putting together consistent offense. QB Deshawn Purdie has not looked comfortable, and Liberty even turned to backup Jaylen Henderson late, which adds another layer of uncertainty to an offense already struggling to stay on schedule.

I have Ball State power rated as the second-worst team in FBS (ahead of Sacramento State), which is the main reason I’m not simply taking the points with the Cardinals. Their offense did look much cleaner against Stony Brook, and an offensive line that allowed a MAC-worst 49 sacks last season finally looked functional, but I still don’t trust Ball State to play from behind — and that actually helps the under. Liberty will hunt explosive passes and has been successful so far this season, while Ball State is vulnerable to give them up. The Cardinals are not built to suddenly abandon the run and start chasing points through the air. Should Ball State fall behind quickly, they will likely struggle to claw back into the game instead of turning this into a shootout.

Explosive passes are the biggest threat to the under, and Liberty may be able to create easy points over the top. But the flip side is that the Flames have needed those explosives to score efficiently because they have been so poor at sustaining drives. If Ball State can prevent two or three huge plays, this has all the ingredients of an ugly, slow game filled with runs and long possessions. Liberty travels to Coastal Carolina on a short week the following Thursday, and if the Flames get control of this game, there is little incentive to keep pushing offensively when they can lean on the run, drain the clock and get out healthy. I considered Ball State +14.5, but I don’t trust the Cardinals’ offense enough if they fall behind. The cleaner way to play this matchup is the total.

Other Bets/Thoughts

EMU @ Wisconsin, Under 49 — I’m taking the under in Madison, where wind and rain are expected. This EMU offense has been dreadful to start the season and could only muster seven points in East Lansing last weekend. Expect the same here.

Kentucky +10 1H @ Texas A&M — I think A&M is slightly overrated after benefiting from four touchdowns off special teams or turnovers last week vs Arizona State. Kentucky hung around for a while with Alabama and can do the same here. The key is UK DC Jay Bateman, who comes from A&M and knows the Marcel Reed offense well.

North Carolina @ Clemson, Under 43.5 — Not sure who to trust here, but I think it’ll be low-scoring. From a side perspective, I like Bobby Petrino much more than Chad Morris. I can’t believe how far Clemson has fallen.

Minnesota -23.5 vs Akron — The Gophers looked awful last week, but I think Mississippi St could be really good. Akron can’t stop this Darius Taylor rushing attack for four quarters, and Minnesota will respond in a big way. PJ Fleck is 8-2 ATS at Minnesota when laying 21 points or more.

Purdue +15 @ UCLA — Has anyone seen the Bruins offense recently? It’s not been great. Purdue looks competent and has an offense that can score enough to cover here. My ratings have UCLA -10, so I’ll take the points.

NC State +3.5 @ Vanderbilt — This is a season-defining spot for the Wolfpack, and I expect a desperate team. Vanderbilt is much worse than I originally thought, although Jared Curtis at QB does add some pop to the offense. I lean Wolfpack.

Ole Miss +3 vs LSU — LSU has looked great, but doesn’t that say more about who they’ve played? This line has moved around five points since it posted in the summer, and that feels like a little too much for me. Should be back and forth, so I’ll lean to the home team and the better quarterback who could have the ball last.

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(Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire)