Larsen Griffeth’s College Football Week 4 Gambling Locks

After a couple of very profitable weeks to open the season, we flew a little too close to the sun in Week 3 and finished with our first losing card, dropping the column’s record to 7-4 overall–but funny enough, my leans are sitting at an overall record of 13-7. I’m not usually someone who bets a lot of totals, and leaning too heavily in that direction last week came back to bite me. So this week I’m getting back to betting sides and looking for teams the market has either overvalued or undervalued.

The good news is that the best bet came through again, with South Alabama (barely) covering as a four-point home favorite against Ohio. Week 4 now brings what looks to be the most exciting Saturday slate we’ve had so far this season. There are a lot of games I like, so I’ll try to narrow the board down to my favorites. Here’s what I’ve got.

2026 record: 7-4

Wake Forest +14 at Louisville

I’ve had this spot circled since June. For starters, there is a legitimate matchup case for Wake being able to hang around. Louisville’s pass defense has been leaky early in the season, giving up 41 to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU, but if Kevin Jennings hadn’t fumbled going into the end zone late, the Mustangs very well could have scored 38.

Wake Forest has enough juice offensively to take advantage. The Demon Deacons can push the ball down the field with Gio Lopez and one of the ACC’s more underrated receivers, Carlos Hernandez. Louisville does have an excellent pass rush led by Clev Lubin and A.J. Green, but its run defense hasn’t been impressive, particularly when it comes to stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage. Wake doesn’t need to dominate on the ground; it just needs a few yards to keep the passing downs manageable.

Don’t get me wrong, Louisville is going to move the football too. The Cardinals’ rushing attack behind the Brown brothers has taken this offense to another level, and I expect plenty of points in this game. But catching two touchdowns with two offenses capable of scoring quickly means the backdoor is always open for Wake Forest.

The biggest reason I’ve wanted Wake in this spot is because of how horrible Jeff Brohm’s Louisville teams have looked in spots like this in years prior. Everybody knows how dangerous Brohm is as an underdog, but Louisville has repeatedly turned into a pumpkin in the favorite role, particularly after big wins.

Louisville went just 1-7 ATS as a home favorite last season! After an important road win at Pitt, the Cardinals returned home and lost outright as a seven-point favorite against Virginia. A few weeks later, after upsetting Miami, Louisville came out extremely flat as 24-point favorites against 1-7 Boston College, and was still in a seven-point game with roughly two minutes left.

The best example is when Louisville won on the road at Virginia Tech, and with Clemson waiting on deck, the Cards lost 29-26 to Cal as an 18.5-point favorite.

Now the Cardinals are coming off a major win against SMU and walk right into a sleepy noon kickoff at home against what I expect to be a hungry Demon Deacons team. It is exactly the kind of spot where Louisville has struggled to bring the same energy it shows in its biggest games.

Wake also played Friday night last week, giving the Demon Deacons one additional day to prepare. Under Brohm, Louisville is 5-7 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. It’s just another small factor pointing in Wake’s favor.

My power ratings make this Louisville -11.5, so I see a couple of points of value on top of a golden opportunity to fade Jeff Brohm in a spot where his teams have consistently struggled and come out flat. The backdoor will always be open in this game, but I think Wake is capable of making Louisville sweat for four quarters.

Oklahoma State +2.5 at West Virginia

This line has moved around all week, but I’ll take what’s available at the time of writing. I make Oklahoma St -2 in this matchup, so that’s enough value for me to grab the Pokes as a short road dog.

I was spot-on with my West Virginia rating last week against Virginia, and even after upgrading the Mountaineers following that upset win, I still can’t get all the way to making them favored here. I was impressed with West Virginia. Michael Hawkins has been electric, Cam Cook gives them a legitimate bellcow in the backfield, and the passing game made more plays than I expected against a Virginia secondary I liked coming into the season.

But this is also a tricky spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are riding high after a big rivalry win, while Oklahoma State practically had a bye last week. The Pokes rested starters throughout the second half of their 59-0 win over Murray State, and I’m sure Eric Morris and staff spent most of the week prepping for this matchup instead of their FCS foe.

After preparing for Virginia’s run-heavy offense last week, West Virginia now has to completely flip the script against an Oklahoma State team that wants to attack through the air. The Mountaineers ranked 129th nationally in pass defense last season, and while there has been slight improvement, they still sit near the bottom of the country in pass defense and defending explosive passes.

That’s dangerous against Drew Mestemaker, who has really found his groove over the last two weeks. Oklahoma State already proved this offense can move the ball against high-level competition in the upset of Oregon, and Caleb Hawkins gives the Cowboys a real threat in the running game to keep West Virginia from simply selling out against the pass. Getting starting guard Joseph Hanson and receiver Chris Barnes back from injuries should only help this offense.

My biggest concern comes with Mestemaker himself, who has only faced one Power 4 opponent in his college career (Oregon), and now heads into Morgantown for his first Power 4 road start. He has already thrown four interceptions, and turnovers are probably the clearest path to Oklahoma State losing this game. If Mestemaker and the Cowboys can simply play West Virginia even in the turnover battle, I think Oklahoma State wins outright.

I upgraded West Virginia after last week, but I still don’t agree with what looks like a touchdown-sized move in their power rating. In what looks like a high-scoring game, I’ll take the points with Oklahoma St and bet on the Pokes pulling the outright upset in Morgantown.

Miami-Ohio -3.5 vs UConn

I make Miami-Ohio -6.5 here, so getting the RedHawks at -3.5 gives me three points of value, although I’d love to get -3 if it showed up somewhere.

These records are a little misleading. Miami is just 1-2, but has already gone on the road to face Pitt and Cincinnati. UConn’s two wins have come against Lafayette and a Southern Miss team I have rated more than 12 points worse than Miami.

I came away impressed with the RedHawks last week despite blowing a second-half lead in the loss to Cincinnati. Miami led by 21 before falling 35-31, but more importantly, QB David McComb continues to look better every week. He was thrust into the starting role with no college experience after projected starter Thomas Gotkowski suffered a season-ending injury before Week 1. McComb threw for 334 yards against Cincinnati after going 13-for-13 with three touchdowns against Holy Cross, and Miami has quietly developed a very explosive passing attack.

UConn’s pass-defense numbers look good, but this defense was just shredded for 347 yards against Maryland. Now they face a Miami offense that has been consistently generating explosive plays through the air with McComb and receivers Maleek Huggins and Damarion Witten.

I think Miami’s ugly defensive numbers are somewhat schedule-driven. UConn is a significant step down in competition from Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The situational spot also favors Miami, with UConn playing its second straight road game after a long trip to Hattiesburg, Mississippi, last weekend. Meanwhile, the RedHawks have Homecoming this weekend and return home, where Chuck Martin’s teams are 12-6 ATS since 2023.

I’m not a fan of new UConn coach Jason Candle, who underperformed year after year at Toledo. With three points of value in my projected line, I’ll gladly take the chance to fade Candle and a UConn team that may be slightly overrated after playing an easy schedule. I trust McComb to keep making plays through the air, and I like Chuck Martin’s team to bounce back at home.

Auburn -9 vs. Vanderbilt

This spread may look a little big, but my power ratings are right in line with it, and I’m willing to lay the points with Auburn. This should be a desperate Tigers team after a close win over Baylor and a bad home loss to Florida. Auburn and Alex Golesh need a strong response here, because another loss–or even another uninspiring performance–will have the fan base getting restless in a hurry.

I’m not ready to call Vanderbilt a fraud, but I do think the Dores are a little overrated right now. They were completely uninspiring in Week 1 against Austin Peay, struggled to pull away from Delaware in Week 2, and now they’re coming off an emotional, fortunate comeback win over NC State. All the attention this week has been on that dramatic finish, and this feels like a spot where Vanderbilt could have trouble matching that same energy.

Freshman QB Jared Curtis is clearly the better option over Blaze Berlowitz, and Clark Lea made the right call going to him last week. But Curtis also showed some freshman mistakes, throwing three interceptions in his first start, including one late that probably should have ended the game if not for the last-second chaos from NC State.

Now there’s no time to settle in. Curtis heads straight into only his second career start, and it comes at one of the nation’s most hostile environments, Jordan-Hare Stadium, against an Auburn team and crowd desperate for a win.

Look for the Tigers to have a big day on the ground, as Vanderbilt’s run defense has struggled to create pressure and negative plays. That sets up nicely for RB Jeremiah Cobb and QB Byrum Brown. If Auburn can stay ahead of the chains on the ground, Brown should spend most of the afternoon working in manageable second- and third-down situations instead of constantly facing obvious passing downs.

Curtis has definitely flashed, but he’s still a freshman quarterback making his first road start in one of the toughest environments in the country. In what feels like a desperation spot for Auburn and Golesh, I’ll lay the points and trust the Tigers to finally put together a complete performance.

Other Thoughts/Leans

Michigan -4 vs Iowa — I seriously considered making this my Best Bet of the week. My power ratings make Michigan -9.5 because I’m much lower on Iowa than the market; I just don’t see how the Hawkeyes score enough against one of the best defenses in the country. Michigan wins 17-9.

NIU @ Georgia State, Over 55 — Georgia State profiles as a great “over” team with an explosive offense and a defense that has plenty of holes. They should score plenty against one of the worst defenses in the country, and I think NIU can do enough offensively to help push this game over 55.

South Florida -17 @ Bowling Green — I make this around -19, so not a ton of value. But I have BGSU as one of the worst teams in the country, and the Falcons are bottom 15 in the nation in every defensive and offensive category.

Mississippi St -3 vs Missouri — I grabbed this when it opened, but I don’t like making something my Best Bet after the line has moved so far from the number I got. Still, I project Mississippi State -6.5 and would lay anything below that. Missouri was thoroughly outplayed by Troy last weekend, and since 2024 the Tigers are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS against Top 25 teams. Drinkwitz can’t win when stepping up in competition, and I don’t expect that to change in what should be a juiced-up Starkville atmosphere.

Oregon -3 @ USC — I hate to go with the crowd, but it would have to be Oregon or pass for me in this game. I’m not sold on USC or their defense yet. Have not bet this one yet, but definitely leaning towards the Ducks.

Arkansas -6.5 vs Tulsa — This is disgusting, but if there was ever a time to bet Arkansas, it’s right now. I project this Hogs -8, so I see a tiny bit of value above a key number. Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes missed last week with injury and is out again for this game as they make sure he’s ready for conference play. This is a desperation spot in Fayetteville.

Minnesota +10 @ Washington — Another good data point for my ratings…I make this Washington -4.5. What in the world has Washington done to be favored double digits against a team with a pulse? I know the Minnesota travel spot is brutal, but this is a lot of points for a Husky offense that has looked all out of sorts. Also should be low scoring with a total of 45.5. I lean heavily to the Gophers.

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(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)